BC Election - May 9th, 2017

[rubecube]

I figured I would start a thread for this because BC and Alberta's political interactions/dependencies seem to be at an all-time high at the moment. Also there are probably enough British Columbians on this board that it will at least generate some discussion.

The election is exactly two weeks away and the race has been incredibly tight, with the BC NDP usually maintaining a 2-4% lead over the BC Liberals. However, today a poll was released showing the NDP has opened up a big lead. Currently the polls look like this:

NDP 44%
BC Liberals 34%
BC Greens 22%

Although that lead looks pretty significant, it's important to keep in mind how a) how badly the pollsters got the last BC election wrong, and b) how much Vancouver and the Island skew the results. The NDP could sweep the Island and most of Vancouver and and the Liberals could still end up with a small majority government.

That said, premier Christy Clark currently has an absolutely dismal approval rating of 30%, but both the NDP and Green leaders, John Horgan and Andrew Weaver only sit abotu 5-7% higher than her.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Clark at all. I think she's one of the more disingenuous, dishonest, and corrupt politicians I've ever witnessed. I'm definitely hoping for a change in government, but I'm not exactly thrilled with the other choices.

The one advantage that the BC NDP have over their Albertan counterparts is that, due to their history of "success" within the province, their ranks haven't been filled out by candidates that are lacking the requisite experience and qualification. The Greens, on the other hand, face exactly that problem.

[blankall]

I think polls are pretty meaningless here. No one like Clarke, but the BC system is so abysmal, there aren't many other options.

The NDP presents itself as a leftwing alternative, but in reality is simply a labour party. They'll put the unions above all else. They have no true politics or ideologies, other than supporting the unions.

It's more a situation of people being forced to vote for Clarke. When it comes time to vote many people will bite their lip and just vote Clarke, despite her being pretty abysmal. These people are not likely to run to the polls and declare their support ahead of time.

There's also a very large socially conservative element in BC. They've been shouted down enough times that they've learned to largely keep their mouth shut. These people hate abortion, gay marriage, etc..There are vocal elements among them, but their numbers are much higher than you'd think. The Liberal government panders to them quietly.

It's great for the Greens to have a voice, but few believe they could actually run a functional government. Many of their candidates are totally unqualified.

[peter12]

Horgan is a doofus. I will probably end up voting Green.

[Lubicon]

Listened to an interview on the radio last week, it was the weekly Alberta political wrap up from Edmonton. The guy said the Alberta NDP has asked it's members not to publicly support, work for, or campaign for the BC NDP in any shape or form due to the extreme differences in policy regarding energy and pipeline developement. So yeah, if the NDP win it will not be helpful for Kinder Morgan expansion at all. But on the other hand the last time the NDP were in power it turned out to be pretty good for Alberta due to the amount of business driven out of that province and into ours. If I recall one of the local Chambers of Commerce named BC Premier Glen Clark man of the year for the amount of business he drove out of BC and into Alberta.

Anyways, always interesting to watch. And interesting to see the huge divide between Vancouver./ Vancouver Island and basically the rest of BC. But I guess that is not much different that what we see all over Canada, including Alberta.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Horgan is a doofus. I will probably end up voting Green.

I'm not a huge Horgan fan but it's pretty easy to see why the NDP went with him after the Adrian Dix disaster. I like Andrew Weaver but the Greens have been pretty amateur hour during this campaign. Hopefully they can pick up some seats so they can field a better crop of candidates in the next election.

[dash_pinched]

I really do not want to vote NDP, but I also do not want Christy Clark to stay as BC premier either.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think polls are pretty meaningless here. No one like Clarke, but the BC system is so abysmal, there aren't many other options.

I think BC more than most provinces would benefit from some form of PR or MMR.

The NDP presents itself as a leftwing alternative, but in reality is simply a labour party. They'll put the unions above all else. They have no true politics or ideologies, other than supporting the unions.

That's a pretty silly/uninformed thing to say. You might not agree with their policies but I can think of quite a few things off the top of my head (i.e. renter's tax credit, elimination of student loan interest, etc.) that have nothing to do with unions.

It's more a situation of people being forced to vote for Clarke. When it comes time to vote many people will bite their lip and just vote Clarke, despite her being pretty abysmal. These people are not likely to run to the polls and declare their support ahead of time.
.

I could definitely see that happening but your last statement isn't really relevant. The Mainstreet poll in the link below actually outlines the differences when accounting for undecideds. I think the big factor in this election, much like the last federal election, is going to be voter turnout. Anything above 60% likely means a new government, and anything below 55% means another Liberal government.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politic...ore-voting-day

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

I really do not want to vote NDP, but I also do not want Christy Clark to stay as BC premier either.

Yeah the NDP are doing their classic left-wing populist pandering. A $400 annual rebate for renters? Whoopdy freaking doo. That extra $35/month is really going to help people in Vancouver and Victoria.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah the NDP are doing their classic left-wing populist pandering. A $400 annual rebate for renters? Whoopdy freaking doo. That extra $35/month is really going to help people in Vancouver and Victoria.

Gains will be erased after renewing exactly one lease.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

Gains will be erased after renewing exactly one lease.

Pretty much. Not sure how it really addresses the biggest issue either, which is the lack of vacancies.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Pretty much. Not sure how it really addresses the biggest issue either, which is the lack of vacancies.

They have been pandering just as much as the Libs. But the Libs will lose because people just really dislike Clark, and with good reason, she is everything a corrupt politician should be, and more.

That said, the NDP will get in on a protest vote, and then act like it is a mandate to ruin the province. Actually looking at their policies is pretty disturbing, and Alberta can pretty much say goodbye to any decent resource transportation to the coast.

[rubecube]

The housing issue is probably the biggest issue of the election for me. You know it's gone past the point of absurdity when the only solution Victoria city council can come up with is to start making it legal for people to sleep in their cars.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/victori...ises-1.3353443

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

The housing issue is probably the biggest issue of the election for me. You know it's gone past the point of absurdity when the only solution Victoria city council can come up with is to start making it legal for people to sleep in their cars.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/victori...ises-1.3353443

I full on snorted at my desk. Not surprised.

It isn't as bad for people in the middle and upper end of the income spectrum. Young people too can make Victoria or Vancouver work for them quite easily. For me, $1475 to live 200m away from an ocean is a dream that I never considered possible in land-locked Alberta.

The real concern is obviously the working poor, which have all but disappeared from anywhere west of Burnaby.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

They have been pandering just as much as the Libs. But the Libs will lose because people just really dislike Clark, and with good reason, she is everything a corrupt politician should be, and more.

That said, the NDP will get in on a protest vote, and then act like it is a mandate to ruin the province. Actually looking at their policies is pretty disturbing, and Alberta can pretty much say goodbye to any decent resource transportation to the coast.

I don't know if you can call it a protest vote entirely. The Island has been decidedly orange for years and most of Vancouver has been trending that way for a while, too. It's not really surprising either because that's obviously where the COL:income ratio is the most appalling.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think BC more than most provinces would benefit from some form of PR or MMR.



That's a pretty silly/uninformed thing to say. You might not agree with their policies but I can think of quite a few things off the top of my head (i.e. renter's tax credit, elimination of student loan interest, etc.) that have nothing to do with unions.



I could definitely see that happening but your last statement isn't really relevant. The Mainstreet poll in the link below actually outlines the differences when accounting for undecideds. I think the big factor in this election, much like the last federal election, is going to be voter turnout. Anything above 60% likely means a new government, and anything below 55% means another Liberal government.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politic...ore-voting-day

You're making assumptions about those sitting at home. The majority of those sitting at home are in the camp of people who don't like Clarke, but don't see an alternative that motivates them to vote against her. If voter turnout is low, it's due to a failure on the other parties to motivate.

Not voting is the strongest way to send a message to the political parties that what they are doing is wrong. At this point I probably will not vote. I am well informed of the issues and that voting is a privilege...but what's being offered is absurdly bad. If I do vote it'll likely be for a fringe party. The only thing that may sway me is a party presenting a concrete plan to deal with a major issues, for example housing and real estate prices. As property owners form the majority of the voting base I don't see any party doing that anytime soon.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

I full on snorted at my desk. Not surprised.

It isn't as bad for people in the middle and upper end of the income spectrum. Young people too can make Victoria or Vancouver work for them quite easily. For me, $1475 to live 200m away from an ocean is a dream that I never considered possible in land-locked Alberta.

The real concern is obviously the working poor, which have all but disappeared from anywhere west of Burnaby.

It's not necessarily the month-to-month costs. Hell, I'm paying $600/month to live basically 4 blocks from the heart of downtown (although that's generally unheard of), but it's hard for people to save up the money for a down payment when they're paying the exorbitant rental costs. My girlfriend's ####ty condo in one of the worst areas of the city has somehow managed to appreciate $80k since she bought it three years ago. She managed to save for the down payment because she was able to live at home for most of her 20s and had no student debt. She wouldn't have a hope in hell of getting into the market nowadays even with those advantages.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't know if you can call it a protest vote entirely. The Island has been decidedly orange for years and most of Vancouver has been trending that way for a while, too. It's not really surprising either because that's obviously where the COL:income ratio is the most appalling.

The Island is a funny place. Resource economy died 40 years ago, and now, the place is either just poor or lives on tourist dollars. Meanwhile, everyone acts like it is some kind of utopian paradise, but in reality, could only exist through massive federal/provincial subsidies.

Hard to square that with labour concerns in the northeast corner of the province, or even the Lower Mainland.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's not necessarily the month-to-month costs. Hell, I'm paying $600/month to live basically 4 blocks from the heart of downtown (although that's generally unheard of), but it's hard for people to save up the money for a down payment when they're paying the exorbitant rental costs. My girlfriend's ####ty condo in one of the worst areas of the city has somehow managed to appreciate $80k since she bought it three years ago. She managed to save for the down payment because she was able to live at home for most of her 20s and had no student debt. She wouldn't have a hope in hell of getting into the market nowadays even with those advantages.

Yeah, well, by moving here, I basically understood that, barring a giant disaster, I will never own a place. That is just the reality for now.

It's just about a place to live, and not using real estate as an investment tool. That is nutcase thinking, and is what is basically driving these out of control costs.

That said, I would not be closed off at all to some kind of rent control.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by peter12

The Island is a funny place. Resource economy died 40 years ago, and now, the place is either just poor or lives on tourist dollars. Meanwhile, everyone acts like it is some kind of utopian paradise, but in reality, could only exist through massive federal/provincial subsidies.

Hard to square that with labour concerns in the northeast corner of the province, or even the Lower Mainland.

Not really. The tech industry is booming in Victoria and it's still a government town. I don't think anyone here considers it a utopian paradise. I think it's just more that there's enough free stuff to do within walking/biking distance and the weather's nice so not having to spend as much on entertainment and transportation subsidizes whatever you're spending on food and rent.

EDIT: Just saw you wrote the Island as a whole, but even the Central Island is seeing somewhat of a rejuvenation.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Not really. The tech industry is booming here and it's still a government town. I don't think anyone here considers it a utopian paradise. I think it's just more that there's enough free stuff to do within walking/biking distance and the weather's nice so not having to spend as much on entertainment and transportation subsidizes whatever you're spending on food and rent.

Oh, you are talking about Victoria.