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Old 05-06-2017, 09:15 PM   #41
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Look at jobs in coal country in West Virginia in the States.

Coal is obsolete entirely. Those people are screwed and are not getting any help to change their way of doing things at all. Just false promises that coal is coming back, when it's not.

Alberta, if it doesn't plan properly to transition into other things will similarly be screwed.
Its not like there are't other jobs available. Wind & Solar are hiring like crazy right now.

The secret is just to help people transition.
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Old 05-06-2017, 09:56 PM   #42
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Its not like there are't other jobs available. Wind & Solar are hiring like crazy right now.

The secret is just to help people transition.
It's not a secret and it doesn't really work. It may work in the near future, but right now you're not getting a 52 year old Oil worker with 32 years in the industry to retrain successfully. He'll go on EI and wait until this one blows over except it never will. Retraining is a great idea, and every government does it. It's just not successful
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:01 PM   #43
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This sucker's electrical.
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:10 PM   #44
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I think there will be niche markets for oil and gas. Stuff like planes and HD construction equipment will still rely on fossil fuels, not to mention large ships...
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:11 PM   #45
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You are missing half of the story...there is an expectation that the business model of owning a car will be displaced.
No way. Gearheads whether it's gas or electric will always exist. People like having their own space. People like customizing it. Car freaks keep their cars immaculate and don't want to sit in a seat 300 other people have been injecting farts into, and wiping their booger fingers on the wheel. People want to tinker, and EVs will be a whole new world of performance mods.

You'll never kill the gearhead, whether it's computers, bicycles, or cars.... people want their own things. Some people might like the idea of using 'public transportation cars' but not more than half of North Americans.
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:23 PM   #46
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If everyone in Calgary were to ditch their personal vehicle, I wonder how many TaaS cars would be needed to fill the demand. 50k? 100k?
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:31 PM   #47
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I'm still not convinced that electric vehicles are the answer. Our entire way of life is built around pulling into a gas station and instantly re-fueling, not waiting for a charge.

The development of hydrogen fuel cells is what really interests me
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:37 PM   #48
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So this is just one guy's opinion? First of all, human beings have a terrible track record of predicting the future, much less one dude's opinion. Anyone heard of Alvin Toffler? Or flying cars, or the Y2K bug? Macro predictions such as society will consume less oil have a higher probability of being correct, just like how Toffler predicted the rise of the information age, but more specific and granular predictions as to when things will happen and how it will happen and what things will look like in the future are almost never correct.
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:40 PM   #49
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I'm still not convinced that electric vehicles are the answer. Our entire way of life is built around pulling into a gas station and instantly re-fueling, not waiting for a charge.

The development of hydrogen fuel cells is what really interests me
There are so many angles to this, you need to forget the current model. Electric cars are clearly and obviously the future. Charging them will not be as cumbersome and time consuming as charging your cell phone. Between solar advancements, and even rekindling Tesla's theories (the real Tesla), there will be ways to charge vehicles without having to sit inside a Denny's for half an hour.

Just give it a few more years. This is going to be like the iphone. One day my buddy bought one, I thought he was sniffing glue. A few years later, I can't even think of life without my smartphone. The future will arrive. Soon.
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:47 PM   #50
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No way. Gearheads whether it's gas or electric will always exist. People like having their own space. People like customizing it. Car freaks keep their cars immaculate and don't want to sit in a seat 300 other people have been injecting farts into, and wiping their booger fingers on the wheel. People want to tinker, and EVs will be a whole new world of performance mods.

You'll never kill the gearhead, whether it's computers, bicycles, or cars.... people want their own things. Some people might like the idea of using 'public transportation cars' but not more than half of North Americans.

That relates to like 1% of car ownership.

Buying a new car costs approximately $800-$1500 a month depending on car price, fuel costs, maintenance costs, tire prices, etc.

If a service existed that allowed you to get anywhere you wanted at the same convenience but was $350 a month, almost everyone would take it
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:47 PM   #51
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There are so many angles to this, you need to forget the current model. Electric cars are clearly and obviously the future. Charging them will not be as cumbersome and time consuming as charging your cell phone. Between solar advancements, and even rekindling Tesla's theories (the real Tesla), there will be ways to charge vehicles without having to sit inside a Denny's for half an hour.

Just give it a few more years. This is going to be like the iphone. One day my buddy bought one, I thought he was sniffing glue. A few years later, I can't even think of life without my smartphone. The future will arrive. Soon.
If they can improve the range and charging, I'm 100% on board. I guess I just don't see it happening like that
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Old 05-06-2017, 10:53 PM   #52
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If they can improve the range and charging, I'm 100% on board. I guess I just don't see it happening like that
I agree with most of this, but I don't see them not improving it. It's practically inevitable, AFAIC. Maybe not in 2018 or 2019, but before long, it'll be the new reality. Just ask my 92 year old grandmother some of the things that sounded like science fiction and are now reality. There will be a day when people think that standing at a gas station and physically pouring a flammable fluid into a tank is like giving a horse a carrot before a trip to town.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:02 PM   #53
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My thought is that once driverless electric trucking significantly enters the commercial service sector we will see a class revolution within 20 years. You don't put that many people out of work without a massive social impact. Remember; everything in your house came by pipe, wire or truck. When Skynet Logistics puts all those humans out of work it is gonna get cray cray.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:15 PM   #54
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My thought is that once driverless electric trucking significantly enters the commercial service sector we will see a class revolution within 20 years. You don't put that many people out of work without a massive social impact. Remember; everything in your house came by pipe, wire or truck. When Skynet Logistics puts all those humans out of work it is gonna get cray cray.
It's actually much, much bigger than that, but probably more complex and harder to gauge. If commercial drivers are affected, so will vehicle manufacturers, lawyers, insurance, police, surgeons, mechanics, car part suppliers, parking lot companies, municipalities, governmental employees, etc, etc, etc.

It's massively wide reaching. For example, my sister works for Alberta Transportation ensuring proper log keeping etc for commercial truckers. That job would be mostly gone.

It's an order of disruption potentially bigger than the internet
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:27 PM   #55
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In a city the size of Calgary, or Canada in general, we are so sparsely populated.

If I want to travel from one suburb to another in different city quadrants, personal transport is at least 2-3 times quicker than transit. Even with improved transit, I can't see myself ever wanting to wait around for the bus/train. I don't want to go to Banff for a weekend and be bound by somebody else's schedule.

It seems like a lot of these articles think the New York model applies to every city in the world. We don't even have passenger train to Edmonton.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:28 PM   #56
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It's actually much, much bigger than that, but probably more complex and harder to gauge. If commercial drivers are affected, so will vehicle manufacturers, lawyers, insurance, police, surgeons, mechanics, car part suppliers, parking lot companies, municipalities, governmental employees, etc, etc, etc.

It's massively wide reaching. For example, my sister works for Alberta Transportation ensuring proper log keeping etc for commercial truckers. That job would be mostly gone.

It's an order of disruption potentially bigger than the internet
I'm thinking at that point there will be very few full-time employment opportunities as positions get split so that companies can save money on benefits. Basic guaranteed income eventually will roll out and we will hopefully look more like Star Trek than Road Warrior.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:43 PM   #57
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But think of the advantages. Drug smuggling will become a victimless crime.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:52 PM   #58
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Wouldn't solar be a good place for Alberta to invest? I believe Germany is there as a comparison as about 7% of their energy is solar.
It's 7% of electricity, and only something like 2% of energy. And solar has been disastrous for Germany, having spent hundreds of billions of euro for a source of electricity that isn't very reliable and doesn't work when Germany needs electricity the most, in the winter. Which is also when Alberta needs electricity.

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I couldn't find an exact number for Canada but I read that solar, wind, tidal, and biomass combined equal three percent of our energy.
But when you factor in hydroelectricity, then Canada destroys Germany in terms of C02 emissions/kWh.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:53 PM   #59
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In a city the size of Calgary, or Canada in general, we are so sparsely populated.

If I want to travel from one suburb to another in different city quadrants, personal transport is at least 2-3 times quicker than transit. Even with improved transit, I can't see myself ever wanting to wait around for the bus/train. I don't want to go to Banff for a weekend and be bound by somebody else's schedule.

It seems like a lot of these articles think the New York model applies to every city in the world. We don't even have passenger train to Edmonton.
I don't think you're understanding the service. It wouldn't work in rural areas, but it would work in Calgary just fine. At any point in time, there would be a car within 1 minute of where you are based on density and it would come for you. Think of it exactly like uber, but with exponentially more cars available and made more convenient by algorithms having placed them in more conveniently available areas. The car picks you up and drops you off as often as you like.

For example, after a hockey game there would be thousands of cars available at a set of pre determined areas. You hop in and go. You want to go to the mall at 3pm on a wednesday, you open the app, hail a car, and within a minute it's there. All for much lower than owning a car, because that one car transports about 5-10 times as many people as 1 car owned by a single owner.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:56 PM   #60
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If your transportation bill dropped by 75-90% with an acceptable service? You'd switch...
Why would it drop so much? Uber rates are already unsustainable as it is the largest money loser in the tech startup history because it tries to compete with private transport and mass transit. And where its drivers make do with low pay and drive old but cheap to operate cars.

And if operating costs of a vehicle dropped so much, people would just buy more of it so they wouldn't ever have to deal with hassles of strangers ever again. In that future, people needing to rent a ride will be as rare as people today that need pay phones.

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