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Old 05-19-2017, 11:01 AM   #1721
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You don't understand irony, do you? Or polls, for that matter. The latest polls I've seen had "the centrists" at all of 10% support, combined. The two right wing parties were pushing 65% combined. What the combined party needs is to maintain most of that existing combined support. Some is definitely going to bleed. That is obvious. How much bleeds and how much they retain is what is going to determine the next election.

I'm sure that over the next few months, disaffected former PC/WR supporters who won't lower themselves to turning to the NDP will prop up the numbers for Greg Clark and whoever is unfortunate enough to end up as Liberal leader. But when the election comes around, we both know that those people are going to abandon both the Liberals and the Alberta Party and cast their ballot as a means of opposing a party they dislike rather than casting it to support a party they do. And that is what is causing the polarization in Alberta politics.
I totally agree. I know that I would love to support a centrist option, but the truth is I would hold my nose and vote for this new conglomerate. The centrists can't get out of their own way.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:04 AM   #1722
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Is it me or is Greg Clark just not impressive in terms of being a driver for his party.

I mean in terms of policy ok, I get what he's getting at.

but in terms of increasing that party's profile, and driving the Alberta brand he's pretty un-inspiring,

He can't sit there and wait for angry Conservatives to fall into his lap.

As much as 2 years away seems like a long time, politically its a very short period of time to establish that you're a serious player in the game, and not just a dude to park a protest vote with.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:11 AM   #1723
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I might have tossed my vote to the Alberta party in 2015, except for one thing: They didn't run a candidate in my riding. Between that, and the fact that they didn't contest the last byelections, it's hard to view the Alberta Party as a serious entity. Greg Clark, while far better spoken and far less crazy, is a lot like Elizabeth May in the sense that their parties only really exist to get them elected.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:13 AM   #1724
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I was thinking the Elizabeth May comparison, but didn't really want to go there because she's just an entirely new category of deceptive political Ho machine.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:19 AM   #1725
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The poll cited in this article says 21 per cent of Albertans would vote for a united centre party. Not a threat to form a government, but that's enough voters that the centre will be contested in the next election.

The PC party that easily won the 2012 election was a centrist party. Having the WR run on their right was a blessing. The new united party of the right will not have that luxury. The real test will be how well its leadership can control the grass-roots WR supporters who scare urban voters. It's not an easy task.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:22 AM   #1726
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But would they? Honestly Cliff, I'd like to see it - because I do think we are better off in a good three party system - but the last couple elections have demonstrated that for many of that 21%, supporting the centre is less important than opposing a wing.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:24 AM   #1727
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The poll cited in this article says 21 per cent of Albertans would vote for a united centre party. Not a threat to form a government, but that's enough voters that the centre will be contested in the next election.

The PC party that easily won the 2012 election was a centrist party. Having the WR run on their right was a blessing. The new united party of the right will not have that luxury. The real test will be how well its leadership can control the grass-roots WR supporters who scare urban voters. It's not an easy task.
I would expect that Kenney is going to end up leading this show, and he's a far stronger leader and political animal then anything that the Wildrose has had so far.

He also studied at the feet of Darth Harper, so if anyone is going to keep control of a parties messaging during the next two years its him.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:26 AM   #1728
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But would they? Honestly Cliff, I'd like to see it - because I do think we are better off in a good three party system - but the last couple elections have demonstrated that for many of that 21%, supporting the centre is less important than opposing a wing.
Strategic voting has made a fundamental shift in terms of election voting strategies. Its not about the party you want to vote for, its now about the party that you want to deny power to.

Politics has basically become like survivor where you know what your base is and you scramble to turn off the undecided or center votes in terms of your foes. I think that's why negative campaigns have become so big.

Its not about vote for me and stuff, its about how can you possibly vote for that party of evil, you might as well vote for Satan and puppy killing.
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:35 AM   #1729
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The poll cited in this article says 21 per cent of Albertans would vote for a united centre party. Not a threat to form a government, but that's enough voters that the centre will be contested in the next election.

The PC party that easily won the 2012 election was a centrist party. Having the WR run on their right was a blessing. The new united party of the right will not have that luxury. The real test will be how well its leadership can control the grass-roots WR supporters who scare urban voters. It's not an easy task.
Sure 21 percent sounds good. But the two centrist options can't bring themselves to unite and languish at 5% each instead. Rather than do the politically expedient thing and bring the parties together they're going to blow each others brains out in a battle for 4th place. But that'll show the other side!

Half of the problem is that centrists would rather "be right" than win elections. They're so convinced that they have the best policies and have it all figured out and that the rest of the voters just have to recognize it. Meanwhile other parties are focused on winning elections and bring people together to do so.
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Old 05-19-2017, 12:30 PM   #1730
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But would they? Honestly Cliff, I'd like to see it - because I do think we are better off in a good three party system - but the last couple elections have demonstrated that for many of that 21%, supporting the centre is less important than opposing a wing.
I don't really think the Liberals and Alberta Party will unify, or that they could win the next election if they were unified. But I think there is a still a fairly strong appetite in Alberta for a centrist government. As I said, the 2012 PCs were centrist and they won a landslide majority.

But you're right that in the current political climate, people are going to vote against the party they're most afraid of. That's the NDP right now.
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:38 PM   #1731
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Alberta Party has a goal of putting candidates in all 87 ridings, and I expect many Progressives to filter to the AP or Libs over the next 24 months, especially as the new Right begins to put their foot in their mouths.

And 21% is actually a fairly good number, especially if it means holding the balance of power from a minority goverent next election, which I strongly think will happen.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:27 PM   #1732
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Alberta Party has a goal of putting candidates in all 87 ridings, and I expect many Progressives to filter to the AP or Libs over the next 24 months, especially as the new Right begins to put their foot in their mouths.

And 21% is actually a fairly good number, especially if it means holding the balance of power from a minority goverent next election, which I strongly think will happen.
That seems pretty optimistic from an AP/liberal point of view. I think it more likely that the United Conservatives, or whatever it is called, will take a centrist approach. It might even be in their best interest to let the far-right nutters splinter. Perhaps sacrifice a few rural votes to solidify the centrist base in the cities.

Having said that, I am not overly enamoured with either Jean or Kenney. Leadership needs to steer that party to the middle.
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Old 05-19-2017, 03:41 PM   #1733
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That seems pretty optimistic from an AP/liberal point of view. I think it more likely that the United Conservatives, or whatever it is called, will take a centrist approach. It might even be in their best interest to let the far-right nutters splinter. Perhaps sacrifice a few rural votes to solidify the centrist base in the cities.

Having said that, I am not overly enamoured with either Jean or Kenney. Leadership needs to steer that party to the middle.
Well whatever happens, I believe we will see centrist conservatives splinter from or cause internal commotion in this new United right. If the new party ends up being centrist in policy and forces the more fringe members to their own faction, then so be it. I think the centrist push will strengthen over the next two years, however it may manifest itself. I just don't think Alberta is as naturally far right as some want to believe - especially when it comes to health care, infrastructure, and social services. Nobody wants increased taxes and government bloat but we all don't want to lose a drop of public services for ourselves.

I'm also curious to see how the Wildrose folks ratify this merger, will be interesting to see for sure.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:55 AM   #1734
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http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...-at-government

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The group that represents nearly 2,400 academic staff at the U of C also says the university’s board is offering zeros at the bargaining table as part of what appears to be a government-mandated wage freeze across the public sector.
Yes, everyone hates Notley, but I don't know what else she could do at this point to show that she's doing her best to right the ship.

For me, I truly believe that she's done a great job in the last year or so (although I wish the home energy thing wasn't such a fiasco, and she just stuck with the rebates rather than the in-house inspection/replacement).
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Old 05-23-2017, 11:21 AM   #1735
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http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...-at-government



Yes, everyone hates Notley, but I don't know what else she could do at this point to show that she's doing her best to right the ship.

For me, I truly believe that she's done a great job in the last year or so (although I wish the home energy thing wasn't such a fiasco, and she just stuck with the rebates rather than the in-house inspection/replacement).
Well the first thing she could've done is at least stick to the budget. I didn't love the budget as it was (and its frightening, to say the least). But the fact that even with the ridiculous spending they managed to spend even more than they budgeted is a pretty glaring spot where they could've done better.

To each their own of course, but I just don't consider that a great job. Throw in a fiasco with the government paying for people to have lightbulbs changed and I know I am looking forward to casting my ballot in 2019.
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Old 05-23-2017, 11:33 AM   #1736
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The Home Energy fiasco is just the latest and greatest, it all started with tinkering with the Royalties and Energy Producer contracts.

I'll admit freezing Public Sector wages is a step in the right direction but lets be honest, its because theres a gun at her back so this was the only direction she could go.

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“Basically what we have is a ‘labour-friendly’ government who’s given all the cards to the employer,” said Sheila Miller, executive director of the faculty association.
Yes. Thats exactly what has happened. Very insightful.

"Ivory Tower Syndrome" right there.

You dont like it? Tell you what: Quit your job.

Go pound the pavement looking for a new job with all of your education and experience. I'm sure it wouldnt be too hard to get snapped up again really quickly.

Try it. Just for the laughs.
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Old 05-23-2017, 11:41 AM   #1737
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I maintain the Royalty review was positive for Alberta.

The PPAs followed by the implementation of the Carbon Tax(not the tax itself) has been terrible.

Wage freezes without strikes so far is very positive.
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Old 05-23-2017, 11:45 AM   #1738
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I maintain the Royalty review was positive for Alberta.

The PPAs followed by the implementation of the Carbon Tax(not the tax itself) has been terrible.

Wage freezes without strikes so far is very positive.


How? Generating 18 months of Cost Uncertainty and sacrificing all capital investment during a period of plummeting Oil prices and skyrocketing layoffs and ending back up exactly where they started?

You'll have to point me to the positives on that one.
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Old 05-23-2017, 12:09 PM   #1739
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Politics has basically become like survivor where you know what your base is and you scramble to turn off the undecided or center votes in terms of your foes. I think that's why negative campaigns have become so big.

Its not about vote for me and stuff, its about how can you possibly vote for that party of evil, you might as well vote for Satan and puppy killing.
It's 50% voting against the other guy and 50% who will (promise to) give me more.

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I don't really think the Liberals and Alberta Party will unify, or that they could win the next election if they were unified. But I think there is a still a fairly strong appetite in Alberta for a centrist government. As I said, the 2012 PCs were centrist and they won a landslide majority.
And the previous versions of the PC's won in multiple landslides by sitting in the centre right where 50-65% of the population has generally been. Their drift to the left fractured the party and cost them about 1/2 their support. The support they gained made up for it temporarily but as we saw those voters aren't exactly loyal and can switch quickly.
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Old 05-23-2017, 12:10 PM   #1740
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How? Generating 18 months of Cost Uncertainty and sacrificing all capital investment during a period of plummeting Oil prices and skyrocketing layoffs and ending back up exactly where they started?

You'll have to point me to the positives on that one.
The revamping of the gas, gas liquids, and conventional royalty regimes during a time capital wasn't being invested anyway. This has created a far more certain Royalty cost for these wells.

They also hired experts and implemented their recomendations without political interference.
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