2021 NHL Draft

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CASe333

Yep I completely agree with your history comment but my original point was I'm just trying to focus on the first initial trade of trading up and down in first round and it seems obvious only to compare the initial players stats, reasonable? What would you compare?

You can’t compare from team to team or draft to draft. You can only say it worked out in one instance or another, or it didn’t work out, but there’s no general conclusion to be drawn.

[Sandman]

RHD Kyle Masters,6'1"174lbs (Red Deer,WHL): 20gp/0g/10a/10pts,14PIM, top-scoring D on the Rebels, 6th in D scoring in the league for players under-18. Amazingly, he just turned 18 in April. Masters at his best is an all-situations, puck-rushing, minute-muncher. He has all the tools, but hasn't found a toolbox yet-there is a gap between his skill level and his execution. Masters' skating hovers around elite in all directions, with quick accelerations and great edgework, and backwards mobility. Masters has a booming shot when he chooses to use it, but needs to shoot a lot more. He's a silky smooth passer, with good puck reception and distribution skills-he can thread the needle through traffic. Deceptive puck skill. Masters can win battles down low, and along the wall, but his aggression and effort level is inconsistent, and his level of physicality goes up and down. Consistency is an issue-sometimes he's impatient, and forces plays, and sometimes he struggles to make harder, more long-range passes. Defensively, he can fail to be proactive enough, and is content to back up and let the play come to him, despite showing on other occasions his closing speed, quick stick, and ability to disrupt the rush. There is no doubt he is smart, but is often not enough of a facilitator, despite having shown the ability to do so. He could be a project, but he certainly is more potential than finished product. His situation reminds me of TJ Brodie in his draft year-many tools, but just hasn't gotten them all together. High risk/reward factor. Round 5/6.

LHD Jacob Holmes,6'1"177lbs (Sault Ste Marie, OHL): In 2019-20, he put up 57gp/3g/6a/9pts. He hasn't played this year due to the OHL shutdown-the last time he played meaningful hockey, he was 16 years old, and he doesn't turn 18 until July 4th. He must have caught people's eyes, as I've seen him on many draft lists, and he's rated 79th for NA skaters by Central Scouting. He was one of only two OHL defensemen to be invited to the U-18 selection camp, but with the shutdown, he couldn't attend. Based on his rookie season, he's an excellent skater that was trending to be a two-way offensive defenseman. Great stickhandler, and a wicked shot. High IQ and vision, and has shown skill as a transitional player. Good size, but needs to get stronger, and work on his defensive game. Good skater, but there's room to be better. Rounds 5-7.

LHD Ty Murchison,6'2"192lbs (USNTDP Juniors): 23gp/3g/2a/5pts,12PIM, and added 1pt in 5 U-18 tournament games. Murch is a defensive defenseman with mobility and puck-moving skills. Finishes checks, plays hard and physical, and forces opponents to the boards. Uses his body and strength to win battles, and pin attackers. He takes away time and space, and displays excellent defensive awareness. Reliable, and plays aggressively. He's tough in front of his net, good against the rush, and employs a very active stick to disrupt lanes. Ty is not devoid of offensive skills, and can show them when he decides to jump into the play-he just doesn't try to do too much, as it's not his style, and he would rather keep it simple. Carries the puck well, even under pressure, and makes smart decisions. Hard, heavy shot, with a quick release. Racks up takeaways. Murchison is not flashy, and probably won't be a top-2 D, but will make it as a solid, bottom-pairing guy-which isn't a bad thing. He must continue to work on his strength and skating, along with his shot-selection-he tends to sometimes get blocked, or miss. Consistency is another trait that must get better, as his intensity can wane at times. Rounds 5/6.

RHD Ben Roger,6'4"194lbs (London,OHL): in 2019-20, he had 35gp/2g/4a/6pts,6PIM. He hasn't played this year, due to the OHL shutdown. Roger is a very good skater for a guy his size, with good power in his stride, and good acceleration. He can hold possession of the puck, even while under pressure. Very hard, heavy shot, and a soft, accurate passer-shows good awareness in both ends of the rink. He can set up teammates in front of the net for high-danger opportunities. Don't know a whole lot about this player, but he sounds like he has a chance. He needs to get stronger and faster, and improve consistency, as his compete level can come and go. If he's chosen, it won't be until the later rounds.

[Sandman]

C Peter Reynolds,5'10"168lbs (Saint John,QMJHL): 33gp/15g/16a/31pts, third-highest on the Sea Dogs, his hometown team that drafted him 21st overall. This was his first year of Major Junior, after playing tier 2 in Chilliwack of the BCHL, so he may have been a bit tentative in the offensive zone, afraid to make mistakes-which, combined with the fact that he wasn't the #1C on the team, hurt his numbers. He was committed to be at Boston College this year, but Covid ruined that, so he elected to stay home and play in Saint John. This kid may be a fringe 1st round pick, very underrated. "What separates Reynolds from other top prospects in his age group is his ability to slow the game down and control the pace and the puck. He has the skating and speed to play up-tempo, but like elite players he can find open ice and has all the tools to make the nessessary play." Reynolds is a great two-way player who presses to gain possession and keep it. He plays the game the right way, and makes a positive impact in all three zones.

Reynolds is an excellent playmaker who can pull off tape-to-tape passes to high-danger, or thread the needle through traffic. Fantastic IQ, with a high-end offensive toolkit, plays with pace and intelligence in all three zones. Drives the offensive opportunities for his line-he's not the flashiest player, but creates lanes and consistently advances the puck. Good at making himself an option for passes, as his positioning is one of the pillars of his game. He handles the puck well, with control and protection-it's hard to steal it from him, or knock him off of it. Great hand-eye and stickhandling, as he can kick an errant pass up to his stick without missing a beat. Skating is near-elite, with graceful edges and agility for tight turns-he can weave through traffic, and make it look easy.

Peter takes pride in his defensive game, and knows the power of positioning-blocks skating and passing lanes often. His underlying numbers are quite good, with a CF% near 60%, even though he takes a lot of defensive zone draws. Creates turnovers on the backcheck, and retains possession with his smarts and combative stick. Pays attention to details, and reads the play exceptionally well in all 3 zones, and supports the puck. Great in transition, he chases down opponents to disrupt plays and win pucks, and can exit and enter the offensive zone with control. Not overly physical, but has a high-end compete level. Reynolds has a top-notch array of offensive weapons, but hasn't dominated the Q the way a first-rounder should-so as a result, he will probably be taken in the 2nd/3rd round-but most likely the second. He needs to get bigger and stronger, and also needs work on his shot-which lacks power and accuracy. Reminds me of a poor-mans Brayden Point.

[Sandman]

C/LW Ty Voit,5'9"150lbs (Sarnia,OHL): 49gp/8g/20a/28pts,6PIM (2019-20). Just turned 18 on June 10th. Voit did not play this year, due to the OHL shutdown, but I'm sure scouts took notes on the kind of offensive weapon he is. If he was playing, he would have put up pretty big numbers, based on what he did the year before. His feet are always moving, and he's got fantastic 4-directional speed and acceleration. High-end top-speed to outrun opponents, and can deke around defenders in one-on-ones. Ty is a playmaker with great vision and awareness-even in his D-1 year, he displayed flashes of game-breaking skill. Hard to contain on the forecheck, he pressures opponents relentlessly and prolongs the time spent in the offensive zone. Finds open spaces in the slot, and exploits high-danger chances. Nice shot with a quick release, and can pick corners. Hustles back to help in the defensive end, has an active stick and good positioning-keeps attackers to the outside-still he could use some work in the d-zone with some of his reads. Obviously, he needs to get bigger and stronger, and there's room to work on his shot. 3rd/4th round.

C Jack O'Brien,6'0"154lbs (Portland,WHL): 6gp/0g/4a/4pts. He spent time in the USHL this year with the Lincoln Stars, while the WHL was shut down, and put up a rather disappointing 7pts in 23 games, with 22PIM. When he returned to Portland, his line with Seth Jarvis and Jayden Dureau struggled to find the same chemistry they had in 2019-20, when O'Brien had 14g/16a/30pts in 55 games. Jarvis and Dureau had production issues on their own, long before O'Brien came back. Still, O'Brien was expected to have better numbers, although he only got six games. He plays a responsible two-way game, and is reliable in all three zones. He's a solid skater, with a long, powerful stride, and he's rarely out of the play. Excellent puck control, possession skill, and a little flash-he has nice moves in-tight to get around coverage. He's smart and methodical in his passes, as he has the patience and awareness to wait for the right option to open up, and he gets the puck to his outlets for the breakout. Good shooter, with accuracy and velocity in his shot, and the willingness to go to the net and battle. Solid, 200-ft player, and can often be found deep in the defensive zone battling down low. He takes good angles in his coverage, and can dictate the the routes of attackers with his positioning. Very disruptive to the other team's flow. He's also a good face-off man. O'Brien is very thin, so he needs to put on weight and get stronger, as he can lose some battles-although he wins his fair share with his stick and work-ethic. His offensive upside has been questioned, but he still projects as a solid NHLer. He's ranked in the 3rd round by MacKenzie.

[Bingo]

Yeah I agree ... it's not as simple as trade up or down works x% of the time because there are independent scouting staffs on both sides making decisions.

So it comes down to an internal formula.

Do other teams value this pick at this position more than we do? If so you can move down every time. For that to be true there has to be a player or players at that point that another team is higher on, or a narrower list for team x compared to say the Flames.

Calgary was probably pretty happy with any of Zary, and say Mercer, Hendrix Lapierre and say Mavrik Bourque so they made the move down twice. Could have had conversations with the Rangers and Capitals that involved the teams saying who they wanted which made it even more clear they could move down.

So they clearly made a solid decision (unless they're fibbing on both assumptions a) Zary was their guy or b) Zary was one of the their guys) as they got what they wanted to get accomplished and added two other prospects as a result.

That's a win on draft day.

After that it's a crapshoot on development, scouting skill and luck.

[shutout]

Brody Lamb intrigues me. Central Scouting has him at 178. Hard to find information about him scouting wise. Scored 153 points in 46 games, which is an NHLe of 21.8 for a high school league. Kid probably should have been playing at a higher level already this year.
But if he is there in the seventh round he seems like a great big swing opportunity with some skills.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/623805/brody-lamb

https://www.therinklive.com/high-sch...ey-for-Gophers

https://www.therinklive.com/high-sch...urnament-debut

https://kttc.com/2020/01/27/athlete-...ldcats-hockey/

https://kttc.com/2020/12/21/dodge-co...te-tournament/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIk_Q35REhM

https://www.postbulletin.com/sports/...-County-hockey

[N26]

Originally Posted by shutout

Brody Lamb intrigues me. Central Scouting has him at 178. Hard to find information about him scouting wise. Scored 153 points in 46 games, which is an NHLe of 21.8 for a high school league. Kid probably should have been playing at a higher level already this year.
But if he is there in the seventh round he seems like a great big swing opportunity with some skills.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/623805/brody-lamb

https://www.therinklive.com/high-sch...ey-for-Gophers

https://www.therinklive.com/high-sch...urnament-debut

https://kttc.com/2020/01/27/athlete-...ldcats-hockey/

https://kttc.com/2020/12/21/dodge-co...te-tournament/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIk_Q35REhM

https://www.postbulletin.com/sports/...-County-hockey

I look at that eliteprospects stat page and I see Mitchell Mattson

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Sandman

C/LW Ty Voit,5'9"150lbs (Sarnia,OHL): 49gp/8g/20a/28pts,6PIM (2019-20). Just turned 18 on June 10th. Voit did not play this year, due to the OHL shutdown, but I'm sure scouts took notes on the kind of offensive weapon he is. If he was playing, he would have put up pretty big numbers, based on what he did the year before. His feet are always moving, and he's got fantastic 4-directional speed and acceleration. High-end top-speed to outrun opponents, and can deke around defenders in one-on-ones. Ty is a playmaker with great vision and awareness-even in his D-1 year, he displayed flashes of game-breaking skill. Hard to contain on the forecheck, he pressures opponents relentlessly and prolongs the time spent in the offensive zone. Finds open spaces in the slot, and exploits high-danger chances. Nice shot with a quick release, and can pick corners. Hustles back to help in the defensive end, has an active stick and good positioning-keeps attackers to the outside-still he could use some work in the d-zone with some of his reads. Obviously, he needs to get bigger and stronger, and there's room to work on his shot. 3rd/4th round.

How many people just sat out the entire year like this?
I'm wondering if he just didn't feel like playing elsewhere, or if he couldn't find another place to play. Since he's American, you'd think he could have found somewhere the states to play.

It sounds like he had a pretty good D-1 year, so it's kind of a big missed opportunity for him.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

How many people just sat out the entire year like this?
I'm wondering if he just didn't feel like playing elsewhere, or if he couldn't find another place to play. Since he's American, you'd think he could have found somewhere the states to play.

It sounds like he had a pretty good D-1 year, so it's kind of a big missed opportunity for him.

I'm going to profile a few more OHLers that missed the year in the coming days, to add to the few I've done. Sounds pretty unanimous that these players just couldn't find other opportunities, and were optimistic that the OHL would begin play. There's even a Russian kid that missed the year, as he was drafted to that league....

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I'm going to profile a few more OHLers that missed the year in the coming days, to add to the few I've done. Sounds pretty unanimous that these players just couldn't find other opportunities, and were optimistic that the OHL would begin play. There's even a Russian kid that missed the year, as he was drafted to that league....

There may also have been some that didn’t want to risk COVID. My business was completely “work from home” for long periods. Some of these kids or their parents may have felt that playing wasn’t appropriate.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think the best correlation one can make on the trading up vs trading down examples is this: Good drafting teams usually end up 'winning', regardless if they did a trade up or a trade down.


I consider Calgary to be a very strong drafting organization right now. I will be comfortable with whichever way they move. Everything is dependent on value and how confident they are in the prospects that the organization has targeted, as well as how confident they are regarding which prospects other organizations are targeting.


Flames knew at the time they can drop 'x' amount of spots to target Jankowski (it has been talked numerous times and I scratch my head as to how people still haven't caught up with this info by now). Flames picked Gaudreau knowing full well that Boston was going to select him with their next pick, and were always careful not to show interest in Gaudreau leading up to the draft to not give it away to Boston. They obviously got Kucherov wrong, so maybe Tampa was being 'careful' in their scouting of Kucherov at the time too.



Drafting who they want and how willing they are to move up or down really depends on a bunch of factors coming together. I don't think that there is one definitive rule when you go about this. A good drafting team will identify who the 'targets' are, the drop-off points between groups of prospects, who other teams seem to be wanting, and what value teams are willing to give up every draft to move up 'x' amount of spots. I am sure that it varies at each and every draft.



This draft I have no clue. I sometimes think that a lot of teams will want to drop down just to get more darts. I sometimes also think that there will be some teams that are willing to move up to draft some kids who they managed to get a better book on this past season, and haven't managed to scout enough different players as they normally do.



I don't know if this draft will be full of fireworks, or if it will be a bit of a dud, but this will be the most unique draft of our generation.

[Bingo]

I'll update the data set again today.

Scott Wheeler came out with his final 100 at the Athletic, with some pretty interesting moves.

He has Johnson at 2, Lucious at 8, Sillinger at 9 and McTavish at 10 (the final three all players that seem to be heading to Calgary's draft zone at 12)

That left Edvinsson at 11, and Calgary choosing between Wallstedt, Lysell, Raty, etc.

He also has Pastujov way up the list at 14.

This could create a Calgary trading back scenario in my mind.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'll update the data set again today.

Scott Wheeler came out with his final 100 at the Athletic, with some pretty interesting moves.

He has Johnson at 2, Lucious at 8, Sillinger at 9 and McTavish at 10 (the final three all players that seem to be heading to Calgary's draft zone at 12)

That left Edvinsson at 11, and Calgary choosing between Wallstedt, Lysell, Raty, etc.

He also has Pastujov way up the list at 14.

This could create a Calgary trading back scenario in my mind.

Lysell is my pick anyhow so that works out.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Please not another under-sized winger. PLEASE!!!

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Please not another under-sized winger. PLEASE!!!

Ya, you're right, we don't need more skill, we should target another Hunter Smith.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ya, you're right, we don't need more skill, we should target another Hunter Smith.

Yeah, because that's the only players with size, Hunter Smith clones. Derp derp derpity derp.

Give me one of Raty, McTavish, Sillinger, or Pastujov at our pick. Skill with some potential NHL size.

[Monahammer]

Lysell = Carl Hagelin, imo.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Yeah, because that's the only players with size, Hunter Smith clones. Derp derp derpity derp.

Give me one of Raty, McTavish, Sillinger, or Pastujov at our pick. Skill with some potential NHL size.

The 70's called, they want your view on hockey back. Today's NHL is all about speed and skill, size means squat.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The 70's called, they want your view on hockey back. Today's NHL is all about speed and skill, size means squat.

Speed and skill are absolutely important but if that was all the mattered Colorado would have beat Vegas in the playoffs. Watching Girard get victimized in front of his own net against Vegas reaffirmed that size definitely means more than squat.

[Scroopy Noopers]

I don’t even see how someone can use the term “undersized” with a straight face.


Look at all these monsters: