^ no offense to Jon, but he should stick to politics, and even then he's not a full-on expert.
"Scientists are going to kill us all."
Okay, thanks Jon, remember that when you get your next colonoscopy and they catch an precancerous polyp that would kill you.
Honestly, the one thing that has pissed me off the most during this whole pandemic is non-scientific people thinking that they understand science well enough to explain things to people. Stay out of it.
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I'd take that with a bit of a grain of salt. Cross reactivity with other coronavirus antibodies means that COVID antibody tests can have a small false positive rate. On an individual level, it's tiny, so if you get a reliable test and it shows you being positive, chances are it's correct. But when you're testing 24,000 samples, even a test with a very high specificity rating will produce false positives.
So in this specific example, they used tests which are rated to be 99.5% and 99.7% specific, which would imply 70-120 false positives in a sample that size. To get around that limitation, they did sequential testing with two different antibody tests, so if a sample was positive in one of them, then they tested it on the other and if both showed a positive result then they counted it. Apparently they tested 1,000 known negative samples and none of them tested positive on both tests, so it seems like a pretty robust method.
Still though, they had 147 positives on one of the tests, and then 9 of those tested positive on the 2nd test, so I think there's still a chance of most or all of those being false positives. Particularly given that they have no evidence of travel history among those people or their close contacts and no real evidence of early outbreaks in the areas where these people lived.
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^ no offense to Jon, but he should stick to politics, and even then he's not a full-on expert.
"Scientists are going to kill us all."
Okay, thanks Jon, remember that when you get your next colonoscopy and they catch an precancerous polyp that would kill you.
Honestly, the one thing that has pissed me off the most during this whole pandemic is non-scientific people thinking that they understand science well enough to explain things to people. Stay out of it.
Are you a scientist?
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Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan
This entire thread could be resolved with a prodigious use of Occam's Razor.
I don't want to entirely rule OUT a lab leak, but the far more likely explanation is an emergent virus through natural evolution and animal crossover. It happens frequently throughout history. Also, evolution is far more powerful than the average person understands, and often creates unique features that allow for survival (even though viruses aren't alive, they do use the same mechanisms for survival that living things do).
I guess it's less sexy to believe in a natural origin coming from animals. It's also less actionable, meaning there's nothing practical we can do to prevent it, nor is there anyone to blame for this.
Nature can sometimes be quite chaotic, and this is just another example of it. Unfortunately, humans have decided long ago that we can control every aspect of nature, but the reality is that we can only manage so much with our technologies and knowledge. Nature will still create chaos for us sometimes. It's just the way things are, and sometimes, there's nobody to blame for the bad things that happen in our lives, but humans are bad at rationalizing that. "Someone must be blamed!" *sigh*
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I’m totally fine with investigating the theory from a scientific perspective, but let’s not pretend like it’s the current leading hypothesis. Not saying you are, just a general statement toward something like Jon Stewart’s remarks.
I think Cali is a teacher so I guess he's at least half way there.
Personally I think it came from the lab, but I'm not even a teacher #grainofsalt
The debate is interesting
I always thought Occam's Razor in this case was a lab leak. How is animal to human transmission in close relation to a level 4 virology lab the simplest theory?
Edit: Just to be clear I'm saying its the simplest theory not that I think that's the case. I have no opinion as I have no facts.
I always thought Occam's Razor in this case was a lab leak. How is animal to human transmission in close relation to a level 4 virology lab the simplest theory?
Edit: Just to be clear I'm saying its the simplest theory not that I think that's the case. I have no opinion as I have no facts.
Because the lab leak requires the virus to exist.
So it’s either Animal - Human virus exists in nature and doesn’t jump to humans in a meaningful way, is collected by lab, leaks out of lab and does affect humans in meaning file way and scientists cover up the lab leak.
Or
Animal virus exists, virus is enhanced by lab to infect humans better, leaks out of lab, scientists and China cover up the lab leak
Or
Animal to humans jump occurs and infects humans and no animals source is found in the next 18 months.
So in any lab option you need the virus to exist and a failure of controls, in a natural occurrence you only need the virus to exist.
Also Occam’s razor isnt that the simplest solution is most likely it’s the solution which requires the fewest assumptions is most likely and that would include all the aftermath and cover ups.
Last edited by GGG; 06-17-2021 at 07:38 PM.
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So it’s either Animal - Human virus exists in nature and doesn’t jump to humans in a meaningful way, is collected by lab, leaks out of lab and does affect humans in meaning file way and scientists cover up the lab leak.
This is the purpose of the lab.
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So it’s either Animal - Human virus exists in nature and doesn’t jump to humans in a meaningful way, is collected by lab, leaks out of lab and does affect humans in meaning file way and scientists cover up the lab leak.
Or
Animal virus exists, virus is enhanced by lab to infect humans better, leaks out of lab, scientists and China cover up the lab leak
Or
Animal to humans jump occurs and infects humans and no animals source is found in the next 18 months.
So in any lab option you need the virus to exist and a failure of controls, in a natural occurrence you only need the virus to exist.
Also Occam’s razor isnt that the simplest solution is most likely it’s the solution which requires the fewest assumptions is most likely and that would include all the aftermath and cover ups.
I don't know whether this virus occurred naturally (and I don't really care, to be honest, as that won't change any actions I take).
But imo if you stipulate that a virus leaked out of a Chinese lab and caused a worldwide pandemic I dont think its an assumption to say the CCP would aggressively cover it up. That's absolutely what they would do.
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I don't understand - is O'Toole indirectly suggesting that COVID originated out of Canada now? What the f*** was the point on this video? Seems to use a lot of time and words to explain a whole lot of... nothing, really.
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Originally Posted by Muta
I don't understand - is O'Toole indirectly suggesting that COVID originated out of Canada now? What the f*** was the point on this video? Seems to use a lot of time and words to explain a whole lot of... nothing, really.
They really liked to mention "Strong ties to the Chinese Military"
My first thought was "I'll bet there is some kind of mandatory military service and that's why they have these 'strong ties to the Chinese military'".
I checked, technically everyone has to serve, but they don't actually make everyone because they have enough volunteers, but everyone does have to sign up for service even if they never get called up or drafted.
I would be willing to bet that that is the extent of their "Strong ties".
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I'm impressed how he conflated several different things that are wholly unrelated to each other to try and make it seem as though the Canadian government basically enabled the creation of COVID-19.
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Had to check that I didn't mistakenly click the morons thread after watching that video.
That'll put the nail in the coffin in terms of a vote from me for O'Toole. I respect and was in favour of a lot of what was in his leadership platform, but he's acted like a complete clown. This is embarrassing for the leader of a major party.
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The title of this thread still really bugs me. It is not as bad as before, but the origins of coronaviruses is not what is being discussed, but rather the origins of SARS-CoV-2 specifically.
Last edited by pseudoreality; 06-30-2021 at 03:34 PM.
Reason: typo
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