Gas prices in Calgary

[OMG!WTF!]

The argument I don't like is "Here's proof gas prices are no more likely to go up on long weekends than any other time, therefore whenever it does go up on a long weekend it's totally random." That's just not a provable conclusion from any research. Gas went up this week for a number of reasons and it's entirely possible the inevitable increase in demand was one of those reasons.

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by getbak

Here's the last year's worth of holidays on top of the price chart...



It would be a lot easier to pinpoint the dates if you could select specific dates for the charts, but this is the best I could do for the 1 year chart.

Last year, Heritage Day landed on August 1, just before the chart starts. The end of the chart represents this year's long weekend.

The green bar represents when most Calgary schools were on spring break. Although not technically a holiday, I also included the start of Stampede Week.



Last year, Labour Day was in the middle of a period where the price was declining.

In addition to this week, there were price jumps prior to Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, Easter, Canada Day, and Stampede. There was a jump just prior to Mother's Day too.

There was also a jump at the end of the Family Day weekend, and jumps during Spring Break and the Victoria Day weekend.

This illustrates it nicely, doesn't it? Its honestly exactly the visual representation of what this thread was about, long weekend, HUGE hike, and then correction to the norm.

Originally Posted by GGG

Go into gas buddy and plot crude vs gas price for the month of July for Calgary. Comeback and post it here with your explanation for the pricing changes.

Then go read the report I linked and it's conclusions and post a rebuttal to it. Or present other research to support your case.

Saying gas prices went up 20 cents and Facebook agrees with me is not a credible arguement. Gas went down May long and it went down in the middle of the Canada Day weekend. It's odd they would #### us on the Friday when we are driving out but not on the Monday when we are driving home. That seems like a wierd policy.

Also why not just leave it high? It's fixed anyways right

Cool, you've got one weekend that it went down, IIRC on Sunday, after having increased that Wednesday I believe. Your point isn't being proven any more than mine is in your eyes. If you like to continue to keep backing up the industry, please do, but you don't have to discount the fact that every other person here is saying hey, its another long weekend, look at that HUGE hike. Nobody is saying that gas doesn't go up and down, of course it does, but a fluctuation of 88.9 to 92.9 is plenty different from 88.9 to 104.9 overnight, and it invokes an entirely different reaction from anybody who is a consumer. That isn't unique to gas either, if you had other commodities that get consumed on a large scale basis that did that swing, there would be equal reactions. You don't see the price of coffee increasing on a Sunday because more people are out brunching and socializing.

Crude correlation is another funny argument to me, it was brought up earlier in the thread that there was a price level attached with a certain crude price, and then that seems to have "broken" when crude crashed and gas stayed high-ish (relative to the price vs. crude correlation from before that time, ie: $100-140 mark). Now that delta is much larger, and its fine to say that gas price does follow crude price, albeit loosely, but you can't argue against the fact that we are not paying the prices we were when crude used to be $50, we are still paying what it was at $100. The downward correction didn't happen, it just never came, and we've adjusted to the high price as being normal. People are afraid of what would happen should crude head back to $90+, and rightfully so, that gap is larger and the price will float that same gap to even higher prices.

Now, I agree there is an increase in demand on a long weekend, yes more people drive, but does a 4 day increase actually reflect the impact on supply or storage? Hell no, that gas is going to get sold anyhow, and there is still a huge amount of refined fuel in storage, and that which is sold will be made up again. Increasing the price does nothing to "help supply", it is simply a greedy capitalistic tactic to profit from those times that more gas will be sold. That gas costs the same to produce as the gas the week before, and the week after (minus the minor fluctuations in crude price and exchange) but even then its a futures market so the gas you're buying was paid for long before. I think its funny they use spot pricing on a commodity bought on a futures market

[tvp2003]

I didn't read through the whole debate but the following question comes to mind: why wouldn't you raise prices ahead of the long weekend (and the expected increase in demand)? Is there something about gas that makes it immune from such market forces?

I also note that everyone seems to now be at 104.9. Normally it's not uncommon to see a bit of variation (depending on the location), but that doesn't appear to be the case this week. Coincidence?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Aleks

This illustrates it nicely, doesn't it? Its honestly exactly the visual representation of what this thread was about, long weekend, HUGE hike, and then correction to the norm.



Cool, you've got one weekend that it went down, IIRC on Sunday, after having increased that Wednesday I believe. Your point isn't being proven any more than mine is in your eyes. If you like to continue to keep backing up the industry, please do, but you don't have to discount the fact that every other person here is saying hey, its another long weekend, look at that HUGE hike. Nobody is saying that gas doesn't go up and down, of course it does, but a fluctuation of 88.9 to 92.9 is plenty different from 88.9 to 104.9 overnight, and it invokes an entirely different reaction from anybody who is a consumer. That isn't unique to gas either, if you had other commodities that get consumed on a large scale basis that did that swing, there would be equal reactions. You don't see the price of coffee increasing on a Sunday because more people are out brunching and socializing.

Crude correlation is another funny argument to me, it was brought up earlier in the thread that there was a price level attached with a certain crude price, and then that seems to have "broken" when crude crashed and gas stayed high-ish (relative to the price vs. crude correlation from before that time, ie: $100-140 mark). Now that delta is much larger, and its fine to say that gas price does follow crude price, albeit loosely, but you can't argue against the fact that we are not paying the prices we were when crude used to be $50, we are still paying what it was at $100. The downward correction didn't happen, it just never came, and we've adjusted to the high price as being normal. People are afraid of what would happen should crude head back to $90+, and rightfully so, that gap is larger and the price will float that same gap to even higher prices.

Now, I agree there is an increase in demand on a long weekend, yes more people drive, but does a 4 day increase actually reflect the impact on supply or storage? Hell no, that gas is going to get sold anyhow, and there is still a huge amount of refined fuel in storage, and that which is sold will be made up again. Increasing the price does nothing to "help supply", it is simply a greedy capitalistic tactic to profit from those times that more gas will be sold. That gas costs the same to produce as the gas the week before, and the week after (minus the minor fluctuations in crude price and exchange) but even then its a futures market so the gas you're buying was paid for long before. I think its funny they use spot pricing on a commodity bought on a futures market

I don't have one annecdote I have a study that I referenced which you still haven't read. Nor did you look at the crude vs gas price chart of the last month and offered a justification. You refuse to look at any aggragation of data.

If you can present a statistically significant sample proving your point. I will be happy to jump on board and admit that I am mistaken until then I will believe the conclusion of what appears to be a reasonably performed study that gas is no more likely to go up in the week before a long weekend than any other weekend.

What piece of data could be presented to you that would change your mind?

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don't have one annecdote I have a study that I referenced which you still haven't read. Nor did you look at the crude vs gas price chart of the last month and offered a justification. You refuse to look at any aggragation of data.

If you can present a statistically significant sample proving your point. I will be happy to jump on board and admit that I am mistaken until then I will believe the conclusion of what appears to be a reasonably performed study that gas is no more likely to go up in the week before a long weekend than any other weekend.

What piece of data could be presented to you that would change your mind?

Alright man whatever you say. I don't, I have a truck, and I pay attention to when and how much when I fill up. I've been doing that for years, so I'm speaking from experience. And my experience has taught me to fill up before a long weekend, this time I came back late on Tuesday from the coast, and couldn't fill up, but it was 86.9 where I fill up that day, so I thought I better get on it by the next day, because again experience has taught me (and the chart you're refusing to acknowledge) it will jump significantly. Guess what happened? It jumped. Gosh if we only could have seen that coming hey?

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[4X4]

I might give some credit to the idea that it's all about supply and demand if gas prices ever dropped by 5-10-15 cents AFTER a long weekend, but no, they take about a month to trickle down, a couple cents at a time, before spiking again.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Aleks

Alright man whatever you say. I don't, I have a truck, and I pay attention to when and how much when I fill up. I've been doing that for years, so I'm speaking from experience. And my experience has taught me to fill up before a long weekend, this time I came back late on Tuesday from the coast, and couldn't fill up, but it was 86.9 where I fill up that day, so I thought I better get on it by the next day, because again experience has taught me (and the chart you're refusing to acknowledge) it will jump significantly. Guess what happened? It jumped. Gosh if we only could have seen that coming hey?

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Were yo disappointed when you filled up early in July 2016 and Aug 2016 and the price continued to drop or do you only count your wins?

Your annedotal observation are more convincing for you than 5 years of data so I won't bother continuing the discussion it's like discussing the link between vaccination and autism with an anti-vaxxer.

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by GGG

Were yo disappointed when you filled up early in July 2016 and Aug 2016 and the price continued to drop or do you only count your wins?

Your annedotal observation are more convincing for you than 5 years of data so I won't bother continuing the discussion it's like discussing the link between vaccination and autism with an anti-vaxxer.

Boy I'm sure glad your argument to try and fire me up is based on 2 events. Shucks I'm grateful for big oil for giving me a break those 2 times. Please, take my money in your thinly veiled attempts at educating people on supply and demand economics, I'm learning my lesson sir, yes sir.

Your denial of the obvious and defending it with nothing but your single study is an equally laughable argument to my "anecdote". Who commissioned and funded that study? Statistics can be manipulated in any which direction you want to suit your argument, so clearly your eyes must be lying when you drive past the gas station before a holiday weekend and see that overnight increase in excess of normal fluctuation, right? Of course there are price increases in "non holiday" weeks, but are they to the degree that holiday weeks are. And, if you're a true statistician or research buff, you should also know that one singular study does not make a conclusive argument (see my comment on who commissions it, etc), and frankly there just aren't any more out there.

[GGG]

It's not an annecdote it's the week before, of and after the long weekend prices in all major cities across Canada. It's 5 years of data. The raw data is in the report

In Calgary from 2006 to 2013

The week before a long weekend gas went up 14 times and decreased 29 times
The of the long weekend it increased 17 times and decreased 26 times
The week after a long weekend it increase 19 times and decreased 28 times

What more information could we look at to prove or disprove this.

http://www.kentgroupltd.com/wp-conte...icing-2014.pdf

[GGG]

Let's start tracking this here.

I propose the following methodology.

The Friday two weeks before, 1 week before, the week of, and the week after we note the gas price. Gasbuddy will be used as the definitive source. We track 3 data points. 2B - 1B, 1B-0B, and 0B-1A.

We track both the magnitude of the increase/decrease and if it occurred or not.

My supposition is that it will be no more likely to rise before a long weekend than the week before that or the week after the long weekend. In general expect to see higher prices i. Summer than in spring or fall.

I propose we track Easter, May Long, Canada Day, August Long, Labour Day, and Thanks giving.

Do you have any suggestions to improve this methodology? I think in about 3 years we can start to review results.

[llwhiteoutll]

Originally Posted by GGG

Let's start tracking this here.

I propose the following methodology.

The Friday two weeks before, 1 week before, the week of, and the week after we note the gas price. Gasbuddy will be used as the definitive source. We track 3 data points. 2B - 1B, 1B-0B, and 0B-1A.

We track both the magnitude of the increase/decrease and if it occurred or not.

My supposition is that it will be no more likely to rise before a long weekend than the week before that or the week after the long weekend. In general expect to see higher prices i. Summer than in spring or fall.

I propose we track Easter, May Long, Canada Day, August Long, Labour Day, and Thanks giving.

Do you have any suggestions to improve this methodology? I think in about 3 years we can start to review results.

Also track USD vs. CAD for the same period, as well as reserves and futures prices.

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by GGG

Let's start tracking this here.

I propose the following methodology.

The Friday two weeks before, 1 week before, the week of, and the week after we note the gas price. Gasbuddy will be used as the definitive source. We track 3 data points. 2B - 1B, 1B-0B, and 0B-1A.

We track both the magnitude of the increase/decrease and if it occurred or not.

My supposition is that it will be no more likely to rise before a long weekend than the week before that or the week after the long weekend. In general expect to see higher prices i. Summer than in spring or fall.

I propose we track Easter, May Long, Canada Day, August Long, Labour Day, and Thanks giving.

Do you have any suggestions to improve this methodology? I think in about 3 years we can start to review results.

Wasn't that already done in the chart that was posted above that you're conveniently ignoring, and still harping on your singular study. You'd be a bad researcher.

I'll post it one more time for you to peruse, the upward blue lines reflect the price increases, the downward blue lines reflect the price decreases, and getbak nicely indicated the dates you were proposing. Yes, there are upward blue lines independant of the holidays, small increases and decreases. Nobody is denying that for a second, and I think that study you posted whitewashes that a bit by saying "# of increases vs # of decreases" with little quantification of the actual degree or percentage of $ value. Saying you have 5 .09c increases is much different when you have 5 .02 c decreases, even though they are equal numbers of each. Thank you getbak

[GGG]

So staring with sept long weekend 2016 the weekend before price went up, the week of the long weekend it went down, the week after it went up.

thanks giving 2016 went up the week of the weekend.

We ignore rememberance day even though it was on a Friday
And prices were clearly dropping.

Christmas it went up 3 consecutive weeks so that one is out

So 2016 based on posted data on that chart was 1-1.

Family day went down before and up after
Easter up before down after so 2-2

Victoria Day was the 22 so the Friday before was the 19 which was the lowest price gas that week and the data is not quite clear when the spike occurs but it certainly was after the Friday of the long weekend which was the first driving day of it. So 3-2

Canada Day and August Long weekend obviously went up the week of.

So in your Data posted that you believe conclusively proves your case the score is 4-3 with rememberance Day ignored.

Now you might say but what about May Long it went up on the weekend to which i will say what about Canada Day where it went down on the weekend. Your argument about magnitude is also addressed in the study where it did find the average increase less than 1% higher than the average decrease.

4-3 and your doing a victory lap?

4 out of the weeks you were better off filling up Tuesday and 3 of the weeks you were better off waiting until Friday.

[TheSutterDynasty]

It's amazing how much bias can affect our perception of things.

GGG is just being objective.

[Dion]

Dan McTeague, Senior Petroleum Analyst with Gasbuddy.com says while some are blaming the Heritage Day long weekend for the jump at the pump, there's a lot more at play.

He shares wholesale prices have slowly been creeping up in the past three weeks, which means gas stations are paying higher wholesale prices.

"If I'm a gas station owner anywhere in southern Alberta it's costing me about 92-93 cents a litre to buy my fuel," he says. "Now surprise, surprise, the only one selling in retail what it costs in wholesale is Costco, everyone else has had to go up, because you can't operate a gas station unless you have a lot of other goods to sell and use as a loss leader. It has nothing to do with the long weekend, far more to do with the fact that many retailers were holding out until the bitter end trying to maintain some semblance of competition, but most had to throw the towel in this week."

McTeague says gas stations raising prices just before the long weekend is to protect business, with more people taking to the roads, and stations losing money on gasoline sales, someone had to wave a white flag.

"Unless you have a rich uncle, or a generous bank, you're owned by a refinery, or you own a big box store in which you can sell to compensate for the loss, you can run out of business pretty fast selling gasoline for wholesale price."

https://www.highriveronline.com/loca...pump-this-week

[Aleks]

Originally Posted by TheSutterDynasty

It's amazing how much bias can affect our perception of things.

GGG is just being objective.

My experience isn't bias. It's experience.

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[tvp2003]

So in the days following the long weekend, prices are around $1.00/L but still a far ways off of the 84.9 two weeks ago.

Anecdotally, of course...

[Harry Lime]

The prices went up because of increased demand. Now that demand has plummeted, the price likewise has dropped to the levels seen before the increase. Everyone is playing fair, clearly. There is nothing to see here.

[Violator]

Drove through kamloops last weekenf and the gas was cheaper than calgary how does that work?

[calgaryblood]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

The prices went up because of increased demand. Now that demand has plummeted, the price likewise has dropped to the levels seen before the increase. Everyone is playing fair, clearly. There is nothing to see here.

The holidays come at the same time every year. It's almost as if it would make sense to start preparing for the "demand".