Francis: Flames have started contract talks with Tkachuk and Rittich

[TheScorpion]

Man, these Flames are fun.

Goodrow - Monohan - Lindhome
Tkatchuck - Backlind - Frolic
Bennet - Jankowskee - Neil
Hathway - Ryan sucks - Mangapane

Gierdano - Brody
Hannafin - Harmonic
Killington - Anderson

Riddich

So many things to get wrong!

[Toonage]

All coached by Bill Peter's

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Of the NHL's current Top 40 scorers, all on pace for 80-130 points this season, only 6 are being paid 9M+ this season.

Malkin, Ovechkin, Tavares, Crosby, Kane, McDavid

How many are up coming free agents?

[The Fonz]

You said "right now".

no players in the league right now scoring 80 points for cap hits less than 9 million

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Seguin signed for what, 9.85 million in an 8 year deal coming off a 40 goals, 70 point season?

As a pending UFA? Sure.

This is what I mean when I talk.about some fans not understanding just how special this year is. When Monahan signed his 6 mill deal, he was scoring ~60 points.

Tkachuk is on pace for 90.

90 points is 90 points. If 75 points can get draisaitl 8.5 playing with mcdavid, 90 will get tkachuk at least that much for carrying his own line.

Does Tkachuk "carry" the second line? Maybe, but 37% of his production this year has come on the powerplay where he plays on the top-unit. His line mates receive comparably little time on the powerplay.

And while I am sure that the Tkachuks will draw their negotiating comparisons from Draisaitl's contract, the Flames will almost certainly then counter with David Pastrnak's deal that he signed weeks later, and which is worth $2.5 m less AAV coming off a 70-point season in which he scored at an identical rate to Draisaitl. Why? It probably had something to do with the fact that Pastrnak is a winger and not a centre, and he plays on a team with more established star players like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. It probably had something to do with the fact that he was not in the top-ten in League scoring.

I think a much better case is made that Matthew Tkachuk is more David Pastrnak than he is Leon Draisaitl.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Seguin signed for what, 9.85 million in an 8 year deal coming off a 40 goals, 70 point season?

This is what I mean when I talk.about some fans not understanding just how special this year is. When Monahan signed his 6 mill deal, he was scoring ~60 points.

Tkachuk is on pace for 90.

90 points is 90 points. If 75 points can get draisaitl 8.5 playing with mcdavid, 90 will get tkachuk at least that much for carrying his own line.

Kind of speaks to the salary cap situation the Flames are in. The team is being carried in the scoring department by 4 forwards. All 4 are having exceptional years. Luckily 3 of them are on good value deals but one is an upcoming RFA who is having a great year at a most opportune time. But Flames are limited by what they can do with the money tied up at the bottom of the roster and some uncertainty around the goalie position.

Tkachuk has improved every year and you’re right the comparables for him need to be players coming off their ELC, not other scoring leaders who signed their deals years ago.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Hanafin over JG or Monny

Legal weed has certainly taken its toll ��

Monny is decidedly the beneficiary of playing with Johnny. Monny does not drive a line on his own.

I picked them over Johnny as I think Johnny is gone when his contract is up.

Hanafin has a superb contract and I believe will be a #1 d-man shortly. But it's also based on Johnny's contract situation.

It's not just based on how good you are, it's basedon the contract situation.

It's also based on come playoff time, I expect guys like Tkachuk to step it up while guys like Johnny ge checked more closely.

But I agree it's open for debate.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think a much better case is made that Matthew Tkachuk is more David Pastrnak than he is Leon Draisaitl.

I think that's true, as both are better than Draisaitl.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Monny is decidedly the beneficiary of playing with Johnny. Monny does not drive a line on his own...

This needs to stop. Sean Monahan benefits Johnny Gaudreau just as much as Gaudreau benefits Monahan. In fact, Gaudreau's production fell off of a cliff in Monahan's absence last season. They are both drivers.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

As a pending UFA? Sure.


Does Tkachuk "carry" the second line? Maybe, but 37% of his production this year has come on the powerplay where he plays on the top-unit. His line mates receive comparably little time on the powerplay.

And while I am sure that the Tkachuks will draw their negotiating comparisons from Draisaitl's contract, the Flames will almost certainly then counter with David Pastrnak's deal that he signed weeks later, and which is worth $2.5 m less AAV coming off a 70-point season in which he scored at an identical rate to Draisaitl. Why? It probably had something to do with the fact that Pastrnak is a winger and not a centre, and he plays on a team with more established star players like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. It probably had something to do with the fact that he was not in the top-ten in League scoring.

I think a much better case is made that Matthew Tkachuk is more David Pastrnak than he is Leon Draisaitl.

Assuming he signs before the other RFA's up for negotiation this summer. If i'm Tkachuk theres no way I sign before Marner. That is if he wants to get his money.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

You said "right now".

lol, 'the best kind of correct'

Kuch - 9 million
Gaudreau - 6.75
Rantanen - ELC
MacKinnon - 6.3
Pat Kane - 10
Point - ELC
Marner - ELC
Wheeler - 8.25
Scheifele - 6.1
Monahan - 6.375
Draisaitl - 8.5
Pastrnak - 6.6
Tkachuk - ELC
Lindholm - LOL
Crosby - 8.5
Stamkos - 8.5
Ovi - 9.5
Tavares - 10
Landeskog - 5.5

There's your top 20 scorers in the league right now. You either signed a deal 3 or more years ago, make at least 8 million, or are on an ELC.

I get it, Tre's a wizard, Gaudreau's deal is a huge outlier, but all of Tkachuk's comparables going into this year are in the 8 million dollar range. Even then, an AAV at the same percentage of Gaudreau (9.25%) would be 7.7 million for the upcoming cap of 83 million.

I have yet to see any kind of convincing argument based in something other than Tkachuk wants to win or loves his teammates or treliving is a wizard that explains why he might turn down as much as 8 million dollars over the course of a deal.

IMO he's an 8 million dollar player and deserves to be. He's doing it with Backlund and Bennett for gods sake.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Assuming he signs before the other RFA's up for negotiation this summer.

You mean like how Pastrnak signed his value-deal before Draisaitl's hilariously stupid overpayment?

If i'm Tkachuk theres no way I sign before Marner. That is if he wants to get his money.

Of course, that is the plan. But it's the SAME plan for Marner and Laine. I expect all three of these contracts will be late, and all three will be very close to value with one another because they will all be waiting for the shoe to drop.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This needs to stop. Sean Monahan benefits Johnny Gaudreau just as much as Gaudreau benefits Monahan.

I don't think that's true. I think it's fair to say that Monahan isn't just a lucky beneficiary of Gaudreau's presence but "just as much"? No, I think Monahan benefits from playing alongside Johnny more then Johnny benefits from playing alongside Monahan.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

As a pending UFA? Sure.


Does Tkachuk "carry" the second line? Maybe, but 37% of his production this year has come on the powerplay where he plays on the top-unit. His line mates receive comparably little time on the powerplay.

And while I am sure that the Tkachuks will draw their negotiating comparisons from Draisaitl's contract, the Flames will almost certainly then counter with David Pastrnak's deal that he signed weeks later, and which is worth $2.5 m less AAV coming off a 70-point season in which he scored at an identical rate to Draisaitl. Why? It probably had something to do with the fact that Pastrnak is a winger and not a centre, and he plays on a team with more established star players like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. It probably had something to do with the fact that he was not in the top-ten in League scoring.

I think a much better case is made that Matthew Tkachuk is more David Pastrnak than he is Leon Draisaitl.

8.89% of an 83 million dollar cap is 7.4 million, for significantly more production, playing with Backlund and Bennett, not Bergeron and Marchand.

The second factor can't be denied. He's scoring 63% of his offense away from Monahan and Gaudreau. He's on pace to double the point output of his centre, and triple the offensive output of his most frequent winger.

Even if Tre can get him for a Gaudreau cap percentage, we're looking at a 7.7 million dollar player next year.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

You mean like how Pastrnak signed his value-deal before Draisaitl's hilariously stupid overpayment?


Of course, that is the plan. But it's the SAME plan for Marner and Laine. I expect all three of these contracts will be late, and all three will be very close to value with one another because they will all be waiting for the shoe to drop.

Harder to hold firm when there is more than one 'overpayment'.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

lol, 'the best kind of correct'

Kuch - 9 million
Gaudreau - 6.75
Rantanen - ELC
MacKinnon - 6.3
Pat Kane - 10
Point - ELC
Marner - ELC
Wheeler - 8.25
Scheifele - 6.1
Monahan - 6.375
Draisaitl - 8.5
Pastrnak - 6.6
Tkachuk - ELC
Lindholm - LOL
Crosby - 8.5
Stamkos - 8.5
Ovi - 9.5
Tavares - 10
Landeskog - 5.5

There's your top 20 scorers in the league right now. You either signed a deal 3 or more years ago, make at least 8 million, or are on an ELC.

Kucherov is earning less than $5.0 m this season. His new deal does not kick in until next year.

I get it, Tre's a wizard, Gaudreau's deal is a huge outlier, but all of Tkachuk's comparables going into this year are in the 8 million dollar range. Even then, an AAV at the same percentage of Gaudreau (9.25%) would be 7.7 million for the upcoming cap of 83 million.

I have yet to see any kind of convincing argument based in something other than Tkachuk wants to win or loves his teammates or treliving is a wizard that explains why he might turn down as much as 8 million dollars over the course of a deal.

No. You just continue to ignore them. In most cases players coming off their ELCs do not become the highest earners on their respective teams. Tkachuk does not lead his team in scoring, he is not a top-ten producing player in the NHL, and he benefits significantly from lots of powerplay opportunities while his line mates draw heavy penalty-killing minutes.

IMO he's an 8 million dollar player and deserves to be. He's doing it with Backlund and Bennett for gods sake.

Tkachuk is probably a $7.0 m player, but scoring on Backlund's wing is not some extraordinary accomplishment.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

In 2017 (when Draisaitl was badly overpaid on his RFA contract), 90 points would have been good for 2nd in the NHL.

This year, there are over 40 players at a point-per-game pace, and 90 points for Tkachuk will probably be good for 3rd or 4th on his own team.

I just don't think he's a franchise player, and top-10 in salary in the league is franchise player territory. Going above and beyond that to make him a top-10 paid player when he's still an RFA is just mind bottling to me.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

8.89% of an 83 million dollar cap is 7.4 million, for significantly more production, playing with Backlund and Bennett, not Bergeron and Marchand.

The second factor can't be denied. He's scoring 63% of his offense away from Monahan and Gaudreau. He's on pace to double the point output of his centre, and triple the offensive output of his most frequent winger.

Even if Tre can get him for a Gaudreau cap percentage, we're looking at a 7.7 million dollar player next year.

I think that is likely where Tkachuk's number will land, and I think you consistently, badly under rate Backlund's importance and offensive ability.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think that is likely where Tkachuk's number will land, and I think you consistently, badly under rate Backlund's importance and offensive ability.

Backlund has scored 47, 53, 45 and is on pace for 45 this year.

Tkachuk is on pace to double Backlund's output this year.

Scoring 90 points on backlund's wing is a huge freakin' accomplishment.

Like, what?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Rittich 4 × 3.25m, Tkachuk 7 x 7.5m and call it a day

4 years for a guy who has less than half a season as a starting goalie is a pretty big risk. I'd go for 2x3.5.