5v5 Scoring in the playoffs

[Kovaz]

Obviously a big theme in us losing to Colorado was the lack of scoring 5v5. There's been a lot said about whether or not guys like Gaudreau or Monahan can produce in the playoffs and other things of that nature. So I thought I'd do a little digging to see how far away we really are.

For some context, here's what cup winners have been able to put up over the last few years as far as points / 60 minutes at 5v5:

2018:
Kuznetsov: 2.84
Ovechkin: 2.43
Wilson: 2.42
Niskanen: 1.08
Orlov: 0.97

2017:
Crosby: 2.78
Guenzel: 2.45
Malkin: 2.09
Cole: 1.36
Maatta: 0.99

2016:
Hagelin: 2.81
Bonino: 2.52
Rust: 2.12
Maatta: 1.23
Letang: 0.94

2015:
Kane: 2.36
Terevainen: 2.12
Sharp: 1.99
Keith: 1.6
Seabrook: 1.08

The theme seems pretty clear: you need some forwards over 2 points / 60, and some D around or slightly over 1 point / 60. So using that as a reference, what has our core produced in the playoffs?

2015:
Bennett: 1.78
Gaudreau: 1.11
Brodie: 1.01
Monahan: 0.78
Backlund: 0.38

2017:
Bennett: 1.23
Backlund: 1.08
Brodie: 0.91
Giordano: 0
Gaudreau: 0
Monahan: 0
Tkachuk: 0

2019:
Bennett: 2.27
Tkachuk: 0.86
Monahan: 0.85
Gaudreau: 0.79
Brodie: 0.71
Giordano: 0
Backlund: 0
Lindholm: 0


It's a pretty sad picture. Using the above benchmarks (and only looking at players on our current roster), only Bennett and Brodie have ever produced at a good enough level within a single playoffs. Obviously, this is a really small sample - a bit of bad luck can tank your numbers in a single series. But I want to make it abundantly clear: 5v5, our top players have never produced enough in the playoffs. Sure, Monahan pounded home 4 goals in 4 games 2 years - but they were all on the powerplay. Gaudreau had 9 points in 11 games four years ago - but 5 of them were on the powerplay. Giordano has never scored a 5v5 point in the playoffs. The powerplay is valuable, there's no question. But this is a real and serious problem with our roster that has to be addressed.

[TheScorpion]

Gaudreau has one point at 5v5 in the last nine playoff games.

It was a secondary assist.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Gaudreau has one point at 5v5 in the last nine playoff games.

It was a secondary assist.

Tkachuk has one in his career so far, also a secondary assist.
Lindholm and Giordano have 0 in their career.
Monahan's never had a 5v5 assist in the playoffs.

Then you've got Bennett who's put up 7 points and Brodie with 6 in the same time span.

[chedder]

Interesting. So our best, most productive player in the playoffs in this current iteration of the Flames is Bennett. And it's not even close. Maybe time to give him some real time on the first line. Results can't be any worse than this train wreck.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Man thank god we've moved on from the Bennett is a bust conversation that dominated this board for way too long. Jankowski seems to be the latest young player to be unnecessarily crapped on considering his age.

The team is going to have to figure out how to find Bennett a bigger role.

Backlund should be playing 3rd line centre ideally.

Lots of questions.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Good analysis OP.
Very important to look beyond PP points, as we know playoffs will always have a different standard of officiating.

To me this very clearly answers the questions about whether our core can learn and get there without major changes to our starting 5.

[GGG]

What do those teams numbers look like in years they don’t win?

Or are those numbers Crosby’s Career playoff averages? I’m assuming they are in the year they won. If so this shows you need your best players to get hot to win in the playoffs.

I’m not sure how you’d pull the data but an interesting question might be has a group of players over their first 20 playoffs games played this poorly and later recovered?

[calgarygeologist]

So essentially over the past few seasons the team is getting better and the top players are becoming more productive in the regular season but are some how becoming worse in the playoffs.

[AustinL_NHL]

Here are the 5v5 individual stats for Flames players over their Playoff careers:

Gaudreau: 2G + 2A in 20 games.
Monahan: 3G + 0A in 20 games.
Backlund: 0G + 2A in 20 games.
Tkachuk: 0G + 1A in 9 games.
Gio: 0G + 0A in 9 games.

Gross. Terrible. Brutal. Bad in every way.

On the other hand, Bennett has 4G and 3A in 20 career games and barely gets 3/5 the ice time as everyone else.

Crazy

[GGG]

Career Numbers

Crosby 159 games, 101 points, .63 points per game 5 v 5
Ovechkin 125 games 64 points, .51 points per game
Kane 137, 73, .57 points per game

Kane has 1 zero year, Ovechkin has 1zero year.

All three were good from the start of their careers though.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Here are the 5v5 individual stats for Flames players over their Playoff careers:

Gaudreau: 2G + 2A in 20 games.
Monahan: 3G + 0A in 20 games.
Backlund: 0G + 2A in 20 games.
Tkachuk: 0G + 1A in 9 games.
Gio: 0G + 0A in 9 games.

Gross. Terrible. Brutal. Bad in every way.

On the other hand, Bennett has 4G and 3A in 20 career games and barely gets 3/5 the ice time as everyone else.

Crazy

What’s funny is Bennett isn’t really all that different from the regular season, he just looks better relative to everyone else being so bad. 7pts in 20 games works out to 28pts in a full 82 game season. He’s basically showing he can maintain his 3rd line position...but we need others to step up and fill those top two lines.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

What’s funny is Bennett isn’t really all that different from the regular season, he just looks better relative to everyone else being so bad. 7pts in 20 games works out to 28pts in a full 82 game season. He’s basically showing he can maintain his 3rd line position...but we need others to step up and fill those top two lines.

Which could be Bennett if he's given an actual chance to play with offensive players. Give him some time in the top 6 to see if he belongs or not. Being a top 6 winger or centre depending on what the roster looks like at the start of season could finally have him produce on a more regular basis.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Which could be Bennett if he's given an actual chance to play with offensive players. Give him some time in the top 6 to see if he belongs or not. Being a top 6 winger or centre depending on what the roster looks like at the start of season could finally have him produce on a more regular basis.

He played ~35 games with Tkachuk and Backlund this season and was less productive than the Frolik by a significant margin. More importantly, Tkachuk was less productive with Bennett on his line than with Frolik, again by a significant margin. That's nearly half a season in the top 6.

Bennett is actually remarkably consistent in his scoring and in my opinion plays his best hockey when his minutes are limited and he has the energy and focus to give 100% on his shifts.

I don't understand how this is a conversation after this year, we talked about it at length:

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And to me this is key for the Flames balance.

While there are times where Bennett may deserve to play on line 2, it's not in the best interest of the team as a whole and has nothing to do with who is the better player between Frolik and Bennett.

The 2nd line is better with Frolik then it is with Bennett.
The 3rd line is better with Bennett than it is with Frolik.

The way this roster is set up it just needs Bennett to help anchor and be a driver on the 3rd line, opposed to being more of a passenger on line 2. Bennett is better as a line driver, Frolik is better as a line support piece. Think it's simple as that.

Look at Neal with or without Bennett.

Neal + Bennett:
186 Minutes
52.66% CF
60.29% HDCF

Neal w/o Bennett:
401 Minutes
49.59% CF
44.37% HDCF

It's not like if the Flames acquired Zucker that he'd be on the third line, it would be because the Flames were unhappy with 2nd line production with either Frolik or Bennett.

IMO the Flames need to grab a #1 centre that pushes monahan down to #2, and elevate Ryan to #3 with perhaps a grittier addition as the 4th line centre. Move Backlund as part of the return for that first line centre and let Tkachuk and Monahan play together with a new second line talent.

Play Monahan and Tkachuk with Gaudreau and the new addition on PP1 and Have Ryan/Bennett as a pair on your second PP unit where they saw success this year. Less disruption to the overall lines and consistent linemates to build chemistry shift to shift.

Maybe Bennett works on a line with Tkachuk and Monahan but then you're still looking at major additions to make that third line look like anything resembling a decent line.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

He played ~35 games with Tkachuk and Backlund this season and was less productive than the Frolik by a significant margin. More importantly, Tkachuk was less productive with Bennett on his line than with Frolik, again by a significant margin. That's nearly half a season in the top 6.

Bennett is actually remarkably consistent in his scoring and in my opinion plays his best hockey when his minutes are limited and he has the energy and focus to give 100% on his shifts.

I don't understand how this is a conversation after this year, we talked about it at length:




It's not like if the Flames acquired Zucker that he'd be on the third line, it would be because the Flames were unhappy with 2nd line production with either Frolik or Bennett.

IMO the Flames need to grab a #1 centre that pushes monahan down to #2, and elevate Ryan to #3 with perhaps a grittier addition as the 4th line centre. Move Backlund as part of the return for that first line centre and let Tkachuk and Monahan play together with a new second line talent.

Play Monahan and Tkachuk with Gaudreau and the new addition on PP1 and Have Ryan/Bennett as a pair on your second PP unit where they saw success this year. Less disruption to the overall lines and consistent linemates to build chemistry shift to shift.

Maybe Bennett works on a line with Tkachuk and Monahan but then you're still looking at major additions to make that third line look like anything resembling a decent line.

I think if you look at all of these players as static, finished products, you're absolutely right. Bennett, if this is exactly the player he'll be forever, isn't the right fit in the top 6. But I think if that's your stance you absolutely have to make a trade because we're definitely missing a few ingredients to be successful in the playoffs.

The way I look at it, there are generally two types of goals you can score: easy goals, where you're capitalizing on an unforced error, and hard goals, where you make a great play to beat a defender. I think most goals scored, especially in the regular season, are easy goals, whether it's a lazy backcheck, a D-zone turnover, or a missed coverage. Scoring easy goals is more about recognition than anything, which is where Monahan excels and Bennett struggles. If the D collapse too close to the net, Monahan will fade away and be wide open while Bennett will be fighting in the crease. If the 3rd defender is lazy on the backcheck, Monahan passes to the open man while Bennett still tries to force a shot through his guy. This is why Monahan scores so many more points - he recognizes easy opportunities while Bennett tries to force more difficult plays.

However, in the playoffs those easy opportunities diminish or go away entirely. When the other forwards backcheck hard, and the D stay with their main, all of a sudden you can't sneak away from the slot or dump the puck off to a wide open trailer. Monahan has built his entire game around capitalizing on easy chances, so when there's none to be found he's left floundering. Meanwhile, Bennett's been battling for every shot all season, so now that that's the only play he's right in his comfort zone. He's going straight to the crease to fight for a tip or driving wide to get a shot off, and those plays, although somewhat low percentage, are still always going to be there in the playoffs.

So the problem with our roster, as I see it, is we don't have a lot of guys that are good at both types of offense. Monahan in particular is elite at recognizing easy opportunities, but struggles to power through a good defense. Bennett tries to lower his shoulder and bust through the defense even if there's a wide open lane somewhere else. So the question comes down to which is more likely: can Monahan add that ability to power through a defense, win puck battles behind the net, and outcompete a physical defender in the slot? Or can Bennett improve his play recognition and start finding the easy plays when they're there?

To me it's less about what will work on Game 1 of the regular season, and more about what's the best way to develop whichever players we think can add a new dimension? If we think Bennett is the best bet, then he should play in the top 6. Not because he'll put up points right away, but because we need him to figure that part of the game out, and we're willing to invest ice time to get that result.

I think the one thing we can probably all agree on is starting next season with Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm playing rope-a-dope transition hockey and Bennett grinding away in a depth role is very unlikely to fix this problem. Maybe a big trade is the solution, but I'm wary of that option as well. I think we may end up in a Hamonic situation again - where we have a particular slot we need to fill, but the price is too high. Do you overpay or leave a hole in your roster? If we could find a way to address this internally, it would certainly be a better option.