Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by fotze

maybe you need friends in higher places, exxonmobil betting billions on gas, companies like Encana, eog, apache, quicksilver, nexen committing to spend billions each on horn river and kitimat. Korean and china companies buying in NE BC in the billions.

Originally Posted by fotze

I tend to believe those dollars over local real estate bloggers. Call me crazy.

Heh, perhaps - development engineers/geologists in those companies (conoco not listed and I don't really deal with ExM) and actually through my own work with the business leads of some of those companies as well - that is all the anecdotal information that I have and at the end of the day which certainly not definitive. Though I do meet with the board of directors of one or more of those companies every year. That being said, I see where you are coming from – heck, for all you know I could be making everything up. The internet/forums/statistics are fun that way!


Bigger players betting that prices can get better (they can't get much worse - knock on wood) but the focus right now is certainly not to hammer out the same number of (shallow) gas wells - if they can, they're going after what oil opportunities they have at this time.

Originally Posted by Shazam

Are you ever going to understand that not everybody's mortgage is up for renewal next year?

Of course, I'm looking at it in the context of future buyers and what they can afford - ultimately their actions and affordability are what will dictate actual sales (and real estate value) going forward. Those with mortgages now are somewhat irrelevant I believe - unless of course they default or can't deal with the new terms when renewals come up.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

The Bank of Canada's inflation calculator.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/inflation_calc.html

I also found one on the american site:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...sp#calcresults


What you should be looking at though, is the Average annual rate of inflation.

USA - From 2009 - 2010: 2.63%

Canada - 1.84%

Not sure if you are interested but if you are http://jimrogersnews.com/168/hyperin...sermarc-faber/ part 1 of 3. All 3 are very ineteresting on this topic. A little alarmist but interesting. I see how the governments come up with their data and it isn't a clear representation of things. There is a cost to printing money and it impacts many areas.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Heh, perhaps - development engineers/geologists in those companies (conoco not listed and I don't really deal with ExM) and actually through my own work with the business leads of some of those companies as well - that is all the anecdotal information that I have and at the end of the day which certainly not definitive. Though I do meet with the board of directors of one or more of those companies every year. That being said, I see where you are coming from – heck, for all you know I could be making everything up. The internet/forums/statistics are fun that way!


Bigger players betting that prices can get better (they can't get much worse - knock on wood) but the focus right now is certainly not to hammer out the same number of (shallow) gas wells - if they can, they're going after what oil opportunities they have at this time.





Of course, I'm looking at it in the context of future buyers and what they can afford - ultimately their actions and affordability are what will dictate actual sales (and real estate value) going forward. Those with mortgages now are somewhat irrelevant I believe - unless of course they default or can't deal with the new terms when renewals come up.

Do I think house values could drop - alot? Sure. Hey, why not?

Do I think financial Armageddon's coming? No.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Do I think financial Armageddon's coming? No.

LOL - nor I. I never said it was.

/knock on wood

. . . just in case.

[chemgear]

The majority of the month is in the books already and it looks like pricing will be flat if not down a little bit from May. SFH (condo too) sales numbers look to be decreasing as well, even from last month - seems low versus historical May/June/July numbers.

Of course as a result, inventory also keep going up - we're at 6304 already. At this pace, by the July interest rate announcement we'll be close to the 2008 peak of 7099. Absorption rates are up to nearly 6 (1.8 to 3.5ish a balanced market?)

Interesting numbers.

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by chemgear

The majority of the month is in the books already and it looks like pricing will be flat if not down a little bit from May. SFH (condo too) sales numbers look to be decreasing as well, even from last month - seems low versus historical May/June/July numbers.

Of course as a result, inventory also keep going up - we're at 6304 already. At this pace, by the July interest rate announcement we'll be close to the 2008 peak of 7099. Absorption rates are up to nearly 6 (1.8 to 3.5ish a balanced market?)

Interesting numbers.

Yep, sales numbers are decreasing. From a historical standpoint, sales are on pace to be the lowest recorded in June in over 10 years...

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...-estate-stats/

http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_t...mer-ahead.aspx

For the first 23 days of June, sales are 39% lower than last year, and 34% lower than the historic average.

The downward trend of pending sales seems to suggest July might be even worse.


On the inventory front though, while inventory did reach a new peak this month, the pace of new inventory seems to have slowed.

With all of the delistings that are likely to happen today (being the end of the month) the month end inventory for June SFH will likely be around 6,000. That's up about 400 from the end of May. The end of April was around 5,000, or up 1,000ish from March.

In other words, it's entirely possible that we've reached our inventory peak for the year, so hitting 7,000 isn't a certainty. It will be interesting to see how many choose to relist in July. I would imagine a lot of people who put their home up for sale in the spring are getting a bit tired of trying to sell 2-3 months later.

The question of course becomes, what happens to all this inventory, does it get taken off the market for good? Is the price lowered to get it sold? Or into the rental market?

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by macker

I know I am but what are you......http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/162016
Sums it up...

What's your plan? Self-sufficiency? Buy lots of gold? Funny how the people are willing to sell gold for your soon to be worthless money. You sure showed them!

[macker]

Originally Posted by Shazam

What's your plan? Self-sufficiency? Buy lots of gold? Funny how the people are willing to sell gold for your soon to be worthless money. You sure showed them!

June 18, 2010 All-time high!

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10795...m_ven=GOOGLEFI GLD

Go to bigcharts and look 1 year, 5 year, 10 year. Let me know when the trend changes. Golds underlying strength can be seen by its rallies against non-US currencies. Look at Yen-priced gold reached a 27 year high recently for example. Look....isnt' gold doing what it is supposed to as witnessed this week.....people panic and need liquidity and gold gives them this...if you aren't holding any you are missing out! 10% and under of course but it has its place and we are seeing that everyday. You aren't convinced after 1, 5, 10 so nobody has ever showed you I guess...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...dist=bigcharts Dennis Gartman broke it down very nicely on Fast Money last night. Gold is many things and lately it offers liquidity.... USD is toilet paper and Gold can confirm it... Back OT

[chemgear]

The gold discussion aside, the numbers for June were certainly interesting. I'm somewhat surprised things have slowed down so much even before further interest rate hikes.

Good points about the peak inventory - I see that 300 listings were taken off in the final days of the month (or it would have looked even worse.) I assume some of those will be placed back on the market at some point.

At the end of the day, I wonder how the realtors representatives (CREB/CREA) will try spin the numbers.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

At the end of the day, I wonder how the realtors representatives (CREB/CREA) will try spin the numbers.

We'll predict a busy Fall because sales are so slow this summer and all of the buyers are waiting on the fence. They'll all jump back into the market in the Fall, and a wise buyer willing to go against the heard should buy now before everyone else gets back in the game.

[mykalberta]

I do think people see this as a buyers market so there is no rush.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

We'll predict a busy Fall because sales are so slow this summer and all of the buyers are waiting on the fence. They'll all jump back into the market in the Fall, and a wise buyer willing to go against the heard should buy now before everyone else gets back in the game.

Wait, is that the royal "we"? I thought you guys don't all read from the same script!

I know, I know, I need to find more realtors. Or talk to people in higher places than say business unit leads and board of directors of oil and gas firms.

Hehe, joking aside what do you see at month end when people pull their listings like this month. Do you find it's just a temporary thing to reset the listing/days on the market or are people pretty open to just holding off long term? How typical is it for people to pull out and "reset" to make the listing new/refreshed?

[chemgear]

We're about 1/3 into July and the rate of sales continues to slow down. At the current pace, we'll be down another ~25% from the slow pace in June and ~50% down year-to-year.

Inventory holding steady for now and prices are slightly down across SFH and condos (though SFH average is slightly skewed higher by a 4.2 million sale.) It's now getting close to 7 months on average to sell a SFH.

Again, still surprised at the magnitude of the crash in sales numbers even before any major interest rate bumps (then again, what do I know?) Though most analysts still predict another hike on the 20th, especially after the job report numbers this month.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Wait, is that the royal "we"? I thought you guys don't all read from the same script!

I said "we" on purpose, knew you'd be excited to respond to that. That's why I ended with the wink

Hehe, joking aside what do you see at month end when people pull their listings like this month. Do you find it's just a temporary thing to reset the listing/days on the market or are people pretty open to just holding off long term? How typical is it for people to pull out and "reset" to make the listing new/refreshed?

I think most are just resets. There were however a lot of people who bought 2nd or 3rd properties in Calgary over the last 3 years or so, so maybe some of those buyers can afford to pull the listing off for a while, find a renter and hold out for a stronger market.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I said "we" on purpose, knew you'd be excited to respond to that. That's why I ended with the wink

hehe!

What's it like out in Vancouver? Similiar story or different? I don't see a great site for daily numbers/inventory just the monthly news network stuff.

[cmyden]

[QUOTE=chemgear;2593592]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I said "we" on purpose, knew you'd be excited to respond to that. That's why I ended with the wink
QUOTE]


hehe!

What's it like out in Vancouver? Similiar story or different? I don't see a great site for daily numbers/inventory just the monthly news network stuff.

http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/

[chemgear]

After the jobs reports looks like the rate hike next week is close to a lock. September looks pretty good for another hike as well.

Certainly not going to help the already massively low sales numbers.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Ba...012/story.html

[chemgear]

BC just came out with their numbers. Province-wide it now takes an average of 9.3 months to sell a home given current sales rates.

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2010-06.pdf

More than nine months, crazy.

[Skyceman]

House prices fall for first time this year

“People have realized we’re in a softer market and they are sitting tight,” said Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. “It’s been very quiet in June because the spring market started early. We expect the same for July and August.”

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by Skyceman

House prices fall for first time this year

Yep, she's right about July so far (although I'm not sure her reasoning is correct) ...

Here's how the first 14 days of July have shaped up so far, compared to the last 8 years in Calgary:







It's probably not fair to compare against the boom years, but it's still 30% less sales than even 2002, when Calgary had 200,000 less people people living here.

Prices haven't really moved all that much, although month to date, the median is down about $6k from June. Yet, the average is $7k higher. With so few sales, the stats can swing wildly, especially the average.

Inventory has also seemed to plateau. The story is the same in Vancouver...




At one point, 2010 was outpacing 2008 in terms of inventory growth, but that has changed.


Back here in Calgary, you can easily see from the RentFaster.ca data that a lot of properties are being put back into the rental market.