AB vs BC - Kinder Morgan Dispute

[Tron_fdc]

I think Notley is handling this like a champ. She's certainly shrewd and intelligent, and I think it's brilliant she's figuring out a way to force the Feds into this. I say keep it up. Every week come up with something new. We started out small, and I think it was more a shot across the bow than anything else. Wine bans really won't hurt BC much in the grand scheme of things, but there are more things Alberta can do that would. Keep escalating it until BC relents, or Trudeau is forced to put his money where his mouth is and do something on behalf of our friggin constitution.

If I'm BC I'm also looking towards the next Ab election. Notley in all likelihood isn't going to win it, and if Kenney takes over you can bet dollars to doughnuts his plan will be FAR more aggressive than Notley's.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I like that she's getting some brains together and putting forth some kind of strategy. I think the boycotts are stupid and won't work. Ultimately they will benefit the wine industry and likely whatever industry she hits next. And it's not like Alberta doesn't sell anything to BC.

I hope she's on to a better strategy of political/legal pressure.

I’d bet my house this is part of her strategy not the start of it.

It could be she and Horgan put cards on the table and decided their best play was both fight like hell, get themselves re-elected, and let Trudeau take the heat for the outcome either way.

It could also be they are spatting siblings (to use someone else’s analogy from before) and they simply both geared for a fight they know someone willl break up before it gets crazy.

Either way, Notley would have absolutely known this was coming, and probably knows the endgame. I don’t think we are there yet. And I don’t think there is any way Alberta wins. The only question is who wins and loses politically.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

I’d bet my house this is part of her strategy not the start of it.

It could be she and Horgan put cards on the table and decided their best play was both fight like hell, get themselves re-elected, and let Trudeau take the heat for the outcome either way.

It could also be they are spatting siblings (to use someone else’s analogy from before) and they simply both geared for a fight they know someone willl break up before it gets crazy.

Either way, Notley would have absolutely known this was coming, and probably knows the endgame. I don’t think we are there yet. And I don’t think there is any way Alberta wins. The only question is who wins and loses politically.

Yeah I have thought very much along the same lines. Whole thing is staged so each can appeal to their constituents in hopes of getting re-elected. Obviously she will be in a battle in AB so she needs to look like she is "pro pipeline", while he is in a battle every single day to appease the Greens and stay in power which requires being "anti-pipeline" to a great degree.

As we all know there is not supposed to be a difference between Federal and Provincial NDP ideologies, therefore its impossible for their to be a difference between provincial parties.

I thought it was a bit conspiratorial and really hope that they arent holding Alberta's citizenry hostage, but that seed of doubt is still there to me.

[MBates]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, Hogg's dicta basically have about the same authority as Supreme Court decisions when it comes to what a court will consider persuasive. Obviously his opinion isn't binding on anyone but the general sense is that his views are likely better informed than anyone's, including anyone on the SCC.

Having used Hogg constitutional texts in court to argue constitutional issues I get it. But his involvement in the losing side of the Nadon matter is a major blow for the concept of putting Peter Hogg on your team so that your view of the Constitutional implications will be 'indisputable'.

That appears exactly why the Harper government hired him to write a legal opinion saying Nadon was constitutionally qualified for appointment to the SCC.

But Hogg was wrong. The opinion of controversial malcontent lawyer Rocco Galati was right.

So if you are Horgan and Notley marches out a Hogg legal opinion during this dispute, do you have to fold your tent and go home because the 'indisputable' authority has spoken? No.

Again, in no way am I saying its a bad move to bring him on as a consultant. It's not like he's lost his knowledge and respect in the constitutional law community. But I would hesitate to use the same playbook of releasing a legal opinion to say "indisputably we will win in court" because it invites a response of "I wonder if Justice Nadon has any thoughts on that?"

[Ace]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Cancelled a 5 day golf trip with some friends of mine for July.

We're not the first ones to cancel trips.

The new world is all about flash and perception. 4 or 5 groups do this and specifically say due to your crappy politics, it starts getting reported and the pressure is on.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

I’d bet my house this is part of her strategy not the start of it.

It could be she and Horgan put cards on the table and decided their best play was both fight like hell, get themselves re-elected, and let Trudeau take the heat for the outcome either way.

It could also be they are spatting siblings (to use someone else’s analogy from before) and they simply both geared for a fight they know someone willl break up before it gets crazy.

Either way, Notley would have absolutely known this was coming, and probably knows the endgame. I don’t think we are there yet. And I don’t think there is any way Alberta wins. The only question is who wins and loses politically.

I think that this is exactly what's happening. Horgan can't back down now without nothing, and he is hoping that the feds ride in and give him some money or something to placate the supporters. We all know that they're both accidental premiers though, so they have no choice but to engineer something to try to retain power when the day comes.

I also have no doubt that the federal government is working behind the scenes. They've made strongly worded statements that this is going forward and I think they see the value to Canada as a whole.

[Sainters7]

If this keeps up, the entire Okanagan Valley is gonna be a ghost town. I swear it's like 80% transplanted Albertans out there

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

If this keeps up, the entire Okanagan Valley is gonna be a ghost town. I swear it's like 80% transplanted Albertans out there

No, it’s not. They’ll be ok.

I understand what the Alberta NDP is doing but it’s more symbolic than anything.

[Sainters7]

Oh I know, was more a tongue in cheek comment. My mom lives in Vernon, always blows my mind when I'm visiting how many Calgarians / Edmontonians live there.

Us Albertans kinda like to snicker about all the Sasky, Ontario and Maritimers that move here like they're annoying invaders..but then we do the same thing in the Okanagan lol. Everyone in Canada likes to move west apparently.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Oh I know, was more a tongue in cheek comment. My mom lives in Vernon, always blows my mind when I'm visiting how many Calgarians / Edmontonians live there.

Us Albertans kinda like to snicker about all the Sasky, Ontario and Maritimers that move here like they're annoying invaders..but then we do the same thing in the Okanagan lol. Everyone in Canada likes to move west apparently.

Aw man. Now we're the creeps 'n bums.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

Aw man. Now we're the creeps 'n bums.

Nah, we’re just the same as everyone else in this country who are free to live wherever they choose

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that this is exactly what's happening. Horgan can't back down now without nothing, and he is hoping that the feds ride in and give him some money or something to placate the supporters. We all know that they're both accidental premiers though, so they have no choice but to engineer something to try to retain power when the day comes.

I also have no doubt that the federal government is working behind the scenes. They've made strongly worded statements that this is going forward and I think they see the value to Canada as a whole.

If that happens, then what's to stop other provinces from blackmailing the government by threatening to break the constitution?

That's an approach that the government really can't take.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Oh I know, was more a tongue in cheek comment. My mom lives in Vernon, always blows my mind when I'm visiting how many Calgarians / Edmontonians live there.

Us Albertans kinda like to snicker about all the Sasky, Ontario and Maritimers that move here like they're annoying invaders..but then we do the same thing in the Okanagan lol. Everyone in Canada likes to move west apparently.

Really? I mean, other than making fun of Roughrider fans(which is totally fair game) I've never noticed any animosity towards any of those groups. I consider them enlightened for their terrific choice, really.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If that happens, then what's to stop other provinces from blackmailing the government by threatening to break the constitution?

That's an approach that the government really can't take.

Exactly why Trudeau needs to step in and lay down the law (literally).

If you don't nip this in the bud, what's stopping another province from breaking the constitution?

I'm going to bust out my jump to conclusions mat, but it's pretty easy to see where this slippery slope goes.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

If this keeps up, the entire Okanagan Valley is gonna be a ghost town. I swear it's like 80% transplanted Albertans out there

From what I've started to see it's mainly Vancouverites that have sold off their houses to Chinese investors that are filling up the Okanagan.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If that happens, then what's to stop other provinces from blackmailing the government by threatening to break the constitution?

That's an approach that the government really can't take.

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Exactly why Trudeau needs to step in and lay down the law (literally).

If you don't nip this in the bud, what's stopping another province from breaking the constitution?

I'm going to bust out my jump to conclusions mat, but it's pretty easy to see where this slippery slope goes.

Oh I don’t disagree with you guys, but that’s the reality. “We we’re giving you $1.5bn for coastal protection and now we can round that to $2bn and everyone’s happy” kind of thing. We get the pipeline, BC gets the cash to protect the coast. Everybody saves face politically and it’s basically victimless.

[CaptainCrunch]

Except that Alberta gets blackmailed and has to give in.

So to for example make that up, we need to charge BC a carbon tax on top of a road and rail maintenance fund for all goods transported across Alberta and into Alberta from BC to market, that works out to 2 billion dollars a year.

Or Quebec in order to make up budget shortfalls decides that they need to find a way to stop electricity from New Brunswick to get to their markets, or their seafood or whatever, and the government negotiates a pay out to Quebec.

It can't be allowed, I'm sorry, but BC can't receive a financial reward for acting illegally or any other kind of award that's at all brokered by the Federal Government where a province has to pay them to get their trade goods to tide water. If that has to happen, then why do we have a constitution that supposedly governs inter provincial relations?

At this point it doesn't matter if Alberta is using the pipelines to get Oil to the ports, or chicken soup, or turkey's in a can.

The re-enforcement from the Federal Government has to be punitive not rewarding.

Notley's actions really aren't about Alberta vs BC, because we all know that Horgan can't and won't relent on his way to his end game which is to get this thing tied up until Kinder Morgan says f all of you guys and kills this project. He can't relent because it puts him into a political grave. He's not going to to step back and say "Go ahead and build this boys" because at that point, that will be the end of him as the premiere of BC.

This is about Notley keeping this in the limelight and basically shouting at the Federal Government that they have to do their jobs.

At the end of the day, its lose, lose for all three parties.

Horgan - Political death
Notley - If the shovels don't hit the ground, the more likely of the likely lose of power
Trudeau - Pisses off his 18 seats in BC, pisses off the environmentalists who fought Harper in the last election and picked him over the NDP. Or royally pisses off the province of Alberta if he delays and doesn't come out strongly on their side.

[Minnie]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Softwood, Seafoods, produce.

The nuclear button is still there where she stops issuing permits to send oil and gas to BC markets.

I kind of hope she steps things up quicker rather than slower. Let's get busy on the first three, and make a lot of noise about the oil/gas and start small there, because even small inroads are going to hurt.

My SIL is a huge proponent of the Greens there, hates Horgan but thinks this is ridiculous. Her take is just let the pipeline through, because one way or the other, it's going to come through the province and she's afraid it will be by rail and then somewhere in BC, some town is going to be the next Lac Megantic. No idea if that's even a possibility but that's been her take. *shrug*

[Svartsengi]

Originally Posted by Minnie

I kind of hope she steps things up quicker rather than slower. Let's get busy on the first three, and make a lot of noise about the oil/gas and start small there, because even small inroads are going to hurt.

My SIL is a huge proponent of the Greens there, hates Horgan but thinks this is ridiculous. Her take is just let the pipeline through, because one way or the other, it's going to come through the province and she's afraid it will be by rail and then somewhere in BC, some town is going to be the next Lac Megantic. No idea if that's even a possibility but that's been her take. *shrug*

I don't have a link but going off memory Warren Buffet wanted to ship oil through B.C. to Valdez, Alaska by rail. This could be where she is getting this from.

[transplant99]

The way B.C.’s New Democrat government is handling Trans Mountain is putting future jobs at risk, Christy Clark told a gathering of conservatives in Ottawa on Saturday.

“In this country, we set rules. We set goal posts. And you can’t change them halfway through,” she said to a well-attended event at the Manning Networking Conference.

“It’s not just about the pipelines. It’s not just about natural gas. It’s about all of the jobs and all of the people who are going to find themselves out of work when investors around the world don’t want to come to Canada anymore.

Clark spoke Saturday about the importance of working with First Nations on resource development, and of resource-sharing with Indigenous communities.

“They are the single most important piece in the pipeline debate,” Clark said.

“If we want to get our resources out to market, we have some incredibly powerful voices on our side. So, let’s fight with them.”

Clark supported Trans Mountain after Kinder Morgan met five conditions, which included a revenue-sharing agreement worth $1 billion.

http://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn...1-f1f24f1ba108

Also some interesting news that could have a small impact on all this

Q: Does diluted bitumen float or sink when it hits the ocean?

A: Dettman’s tests, between 2014 and now, using varying grades of diluted bitumen typical of oilsands production, shows that the material will float on the surface for up to three to four weeks, even under wave conditions that would cause conventional crude to mix in with the water column.

“The fear is that as soon as (diluted bitumen) hits the water it sinks,” Dettman said. “That’s the messaging that’s been out there and that’s not what we’ve been finding, even in fresh water.”

Q: How would rough seas change the behaviour of diluted bitumen?

A: “From a density perspective, it will be floating unless it’s really stormy, then it can go anywhere, the same as any other petroleum product,” Dettman said. If a storm pushed bitumen ashore, it would pose the problem of having to clean it up on land.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-n...research-shows