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Old 02-24-2016, 03:17 PM   #1121
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Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm View Post
Corsi is pretty much garbage for rating individual players. Pairings, groups, teams? Yeah, that makes sense. One guy on the ice? It doesn't illuminate everything.
On a single game basis? Yes I agree. With a good number of games though, the data is a little more descriptive
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:18 PM   #1122
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Why does no one mention Grant? He's an AHL all star, one of the top goals per game pace in the AHL, big, strong, good on faceoffs. Seems like an ideal 4th line player for us next year. UFA but we can re-sign him.
I didn't mention him cause he's injured, but yes I liked what I saw of him when he was up and his season in the AHL suggests he's too good for that league. Another similar guy to Jooris, but maybe bigger, faster, and better on faceoffs.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:24 PM   #1123
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I can provide 1 example, the 2014/2015 Calgary Flames and their players. Another example would be the same team this year.
Poor possession stats last year, team found success. Better possession stats this year and here we are, talking about Finns and Matthews. [/QUOTE]


The flames are exactly where their underlying stats say they should be. As for last year, you understand probability I imagine? Players and teams in every sport outperform their expectations every year. Is Clarkson a 30 goal scorer? Or do outliers exist that don't disprove the rule?
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There are a ton of different types of fans who follow the game. some people cannot just watch a game for the sake of watching it, they need to fill their heads with a stock ticker of stats and percentages to find any use in watching the game. But this isn't baseball or Football. It's not a linear sport of limited moves per play.
I love watching sports and want my team to improve. Therefore I like to understand more of it. Strange thing to be belittled about. Just because hockey isn't segmented doesn't mean there aren't important underlying repeatable events that can be tracked
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:25 PM   #1124
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What are the chances of getting a separate thread just for rumors/tweets/news? Hard to find any new info here with all the discussion.
Here's the thing, if any substantial news comes out, good folk like sureloss start specific threads, If you want news only, I highly recommend getting twitter and following all the hockey insiders.

The problem with this thread is the word speculation in the title, it by definition is conversation. Hence why you see more conversation than news.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:28 PM   #1125
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Here are some conclusions Darryl Sutter has come to:



You look back to the 2004 Flames and you realize Darryl's been all about shot generation and shot suppression that far back. That "Cinderella Underdog Team" that Kipper Carried? They had a shots for percentage of 52%.

Call it corsi, call it shots, call it shot attempts, call it "Aggressive 2-1-2", call it "size" it doesn't matter. Teams that have the puck win more games than teams that don't have the puck. And that can be small teams like the Lightning and Blackhawks too. Corsi is just one way to measure it.

You look at the corsi of Flames teams during Darryl's reign you had:

2008 Flames - 52.5 (5th)
2009 Flames - 55.7 (2nd)
2010 Flames - 51.9 (9th) (SUtter stepped down in December)

I think Darryl was using internal possession analytics long before "corsi" became a thing.
Darryl Sutter believes in cycling. Darryl Sutter teams need big, power forwards to retain possession in the offensive zone. It has nothing to do with fancy stats, Sutter has coached this way for decades. We saw it first hand here with Darryl as the coach.

If you wanna improve our team the Darryl Sutter way then we need more big power forwards to retain possession on the cycle. If you wanna improve our team the Darryl Sutter way then we need more big, physical shut down defensemen so we prevent other big teams (LA, ANA, SJ) from executing their cycle.

I don't see any fancy stats and Darryl Sutter having anything to do with each other.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:28 PM   #1126
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I can provide 1 example, the 2014/2015 Calgary Flames and their players.

Poor possession stats last year, team found success.

You mean the team that everyone said was one of the worst teams in the league last year and would regress this year?

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Another example would be the same team this year.

Better possession stats this year and here we are, talking about Finns and Matthews.

We are 5th last in score adjusted possession.
We are 6th last in the standings.

HMM
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:30 PM   #1127
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And you think Darryl Sutter came to that conclusion from reading Corsi charts?

Kings are also one of the bigger heavier teams in the NHL.
It's funny because their team make up doesn't really jive with what most advanced stats guys would promote.

They are a team that has good advanced stats results, but they weren't built by compiling a bunch of players with good Corsi on the same team.

It's not that surprising that having the result of being a good Corsi team is going to mean you are a better team overall.

What hasn't been proven yet is that by acquiring a bunch of players with really good advanced stats individually and putting them on a team means they will become a good team.

Personally I like them to help look at underlying factors - i.e. Kris Russell's play but I don't think they are actually very good at translating from team to team and predicting how a player will perform in a different situation. Mark Fayne had great advanced metrics in New Jersey, and has been a tire fire in Edmonton.

Also think they can do a good job at predicting teams that are overachieving, and underachieving, but in the end it has proven to be just as accurate as a team's goal differential in the long run.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:32 PM   #1128
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Here are some conclusions Darryl Sutter has come to:



You look back to the 2004 Flames and you realize Darryl's been all about shot generation and shot suppression that far back. That "Cinderella Underdog Team" that Kipper Carried? They had a shots for percentage of 52%.

Call it corsi, call it shots, call it shot attempts, call it "Aggressive 2-1-2", call it "size" it doesn't matter. Teams that have the puck win more games than teams that don't have the puck. And that can be small teams like the Lightning and Blackhawks too. Corsi is just one way to measure it.

You look at the corsi of Flames teams during Darryl's reign you had:

2008 Flames - 52.5 (5th)
2009 Flames - 55.7 (2nd)
2010 Flames - 51.9 (9th) (SUtter stepped down in December)

I think Darryl was using internal possession analytics long before "corsi" became a thing.
I believe this is a great example. Something tells me that Darryl is not looking at Corsi, shot suppression and advanced stats. But he coaches a style that focuses on playing "heavy" and controlling the puck. So the stats follow the style and approach.

When you start measuring individual players with these stats is when I get a little more skeptical. There is some value but I would be wary of placing too much emphasis on it.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:47 PM   #1129
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Advanced stats can be illustrative but they look at such a narrow band of performance. Having more shots is better.... sure possibly. But the number of other relevant factors in a hockey game are pretty significant. Using corsi to say a team is good is like saying ice cream is healthy because it has low salt. It's one number out of a ton that matter.

And frankly many of the people pushing advanced stats are really arrogant and irritating.

I heard somebody talking about how great a player was the other day because his turnover rate is so low.... I thought, I see the guy with the puck like twice a game - what the hell difference does that stat even make.

Most of us accept that stats are interesting and useful, but talking about any stat (especially Corsi) like it predicts who is better makes a lot of people trying to look smart seem simple.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:53 PM   #1130
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Subban, Karlsson, Doughty, Burns all near the top of the league in turnovers. That's all you need to know about that stat. Matty81 whoever was saying this, irl or on twitter or whatever, was not an advanced stats guy.
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Old 02-24-2016, 03:55 PM   #1131
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When you start measuring individual players with these stats is when I get a little more skeptical. T
In 2014 The Lightning acquired Anton Stralman. A guy the Rangers were using on their second pairing but couldn't afford because they had to keep "guts" guy Marc Staal. The Rangers were in the SCF the year before.

Possession analytics showed that Stralman was one of the best players on the rangers in 2013-14, and he went to the Lightning the next year One thing stayed consistent, and that was the effect Stralman had on the teams' possession. The 2013-14 Rangers and Lightning, respectively were 7th and 11th in possession. The 2014-15 Rangers and Lightning, respectively were 20th and 4th in possession. One team went way down, one team went way up, and Anton Stralman while not the "only factor" is a pretty obvious contributing one they sorely miss.

Not all players influence possession. Some are "neutral". Some are bad especially in a role outside their reaction capability (Kris Russell, Deryk Engelland) and the eye test shows why. Some are really damn good (Stralman) and the eye test shows why. And yes, good teams had to get rid of some possession sinks to take that step. The Kings had to drop Jack Johnson from their top 4.

Analytics do show you who's individually making an impact one way or the other if there's a consistent trend. There isn't always one. The eye test isn't useless but it tends to confirm what the analytics show. On our team for example Backlund is Mr Possession. If you watch this team you realize it's not by fluke.

Individual possession stats aren't everything but they show trends. Trends to look out for when scouting a player. See: Michael Frolik.

They also show trends in coaching though. Something as simple as Calgary's dump and change versus L.A.'s change first, then dump and aggressive forecheck.

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Mark Fayne had great advanced metrics in New Jersey, and has been a tire fire in Edmonton.
Fayne has good advanced metrics in Edmonton too. He's a perfect example of a guy who would see a resurgence on a good team. As was Petry before him. As is Gardiner on the Leafs.

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Old 02-24-2016, 03:55 PM   #1132
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Whoever made that Frinkiac website is a god damn hero.
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:07 PM   #1133
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Here are some conclusions Darryl Sutter has come to:



You look back to the 2004 Flames and you realize Darryl's been all about shot generation and shot suppression that far back. That "Cinderella Underdog Team" that Kipper Carried? They had a shots for percentage of 52%.

Call it corsi, call it shots, call it shot attempts, call it "Aggressive 2-1-2", call it "size" it doesn't matter. Teams that have the puck win more games than teams that don't have the puck. And that can be small teams like the Lightning and Blackhawks too. Corsi is just one way to measure it.

You look at the corsi of Flames teams during Darryl's reign you had:

2008 Flames - 52.5 (5th)
2009 Flames - 55.7 (2nd)
2010 Flames - 51.9 (9th) (SUtter stepped down in December)

I think Darryl was using internal possession analytics long before "corsi" became a thing.
So are these stats calendar years as in the second half of one season and the first half of another? The Flames he strong possession numbers but were not a very good team with the exception of 08/09 where they were poised to do good things before injuries ended it all
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:18 PM   #1134
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Ok, time for you advance stats guys to start an advance stats thread. This one is clearly marked as a trade rumour and discussion thread. There are some of us who don't give a dog poo about advanced stats but we do care deeply about trades and trade talk. Thank you.....hopefully.
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:18 PM   #1135
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Trades!! Trades!!! Where the heck are the trades!!!
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:22 PM   #1136
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Trades!! Trades!!! Where the heck are the trades!!!
GMs are saving them until the last minute so TSN and Sportstnet talking heads aren't embarrassed on Friday morning.
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:24 PM   #1137
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Monday morning. I now have Monday off and that's when all the trades are going to happen!
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:29 PM   #1138
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Originally Posted by true#1center View Post
Ok, time for you advance stats guys to start an advance stats thread. This one is clearly marked as a trade rumour and discussion thread. There are some of us who don't give a dog poo about advanced stats but we do care deeply about trades and trade talk. Thank you.....hopefully.
The point isn't advanced stats, it's that we shouldn't trade Josh Jooris. He might only be a 4th/3rd liner but he's one of the better 4th/3rd liners available. Downgrading the 4th-3rd line is a bad idea. Less of a big deal than Downgrading / Upgrading the 1st/2nd lines but still an element of team construction. He's a guy you offer 1.1M x 3Y to like Byron to lock him down cheapo rather than trade him. Though Byron is better.
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:32 PM   #1139
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The point isn't advanced stats, it's that we shouldn't trade Josh Jooris. He might only be a 4th/3rd liner but he's one of the better 4th/3rd liners available. Downgrading the 4th-3rd line is a bad idea. Less of a big deal than Downgrading / Upgrading the 1st/2nd lines but still an element of team construction. He's a guy you offer 1.1M x 3Y to like Byron to lock him down cheapo rather than trade him. Though Byron is better.
Flames have near term replacements for guys like jooris in the system. If you can trade him for a pick, you take the asset. And then use that asset with others to strength top 9 F, top 4 D or sarting G.
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Old 02-24-2016, 04:35 PM   #1140
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Trades!! Trades!!! Where the heck are the trades!!!
A lot of time the best offers come on the deadline itself. Most of the deals will happen next Monday.
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