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Old 01-17-2019, 01:13 PM   #61
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Because long-term contracts tend to be cheaper in the long run.
i) UFAs tend to make more than RFAs because there is more competition for their services. Those extra years not added to his RFA contract become UFA years unless it's short enough to be a bridge contract to his last RFA year.
ii) Average salaries have been increasing consistently.
iii) Players like the security of the long-term contract, so you will usually get a lower AAV on the longer term contract.

So if you sign him for 6 years and then re-sign for 2, you will end up paying much more than if you sign him for 8 now. Long-term thinking is a better recipe for sustained success.
Again get it, but this team is entering a window now. What's more important, a manageable number in the next 5 years, or better value on Tkachuk 7 years from now? I'm not saying I know, I'm just saying that I can see a view point where BT might feel prioritizing a lower term and lower cap hit now is best for the Flames.
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Old 01-17-2019, 01:15 PM   #62
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Also, with respect to the "window" theory, adding extra years often lets you reduce cap hit in the first few years. There are all sorts of long-term contracts where you see the player still making lots of money at the end when they are going to be 35-36-37 and the consensus is that the first few years are a deal and the last few will be overpaid. If the first few years are your "window", that frees up some more short-term cap dollars to add to your team. Then when they are older and overpaid, your window has passed and it doesn't matter as much. Not that this is quite as applicable to Tkachuk, who would still be relatively young at the end of an 8 year contract.

edit: as I finished writing this, I realized for myself that it isn't really applicable to the scenario we're talking about for Tkachuk.
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Old 01-17-2019, 01:20 PM   #63
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Again get it, but this team is entering a window now. What's more important, a manageable number in the next 5 years, or better value on Tkachuk 7 years from now? I'm saying I know, I'm just saying that I can see a view point where BT might feel prioritizing a lower term and lower cap hit now is best for the Flames.
This is assuming that management sees "the window" in the same context as fans, and I suspect that they do not. What I think management sees is how rapidly things can change in this League, and that is where contract control becomes exceptionally valuable. Think about where this team was five years ago—even three years ago—and compare that to today.
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Old 01-17-2019, 01:47 PM   #64
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This is assuming that management sees "the window" in the same context as fans, and I suspect that they do not. What I think management sees is how rapidly things can change in this League, and that is where contract control becomes exceptionally valuable. Think about where this team was five years ago—even three years ago—and compare that to today.
Fans also under estimate how long 5 or 6 years is. Sure 8 years would be great to sign tkachuk for but if you're paying 9 per when 6 gets 7.75ish and 5 gets you 6.75 things could go pretty good for the flames for 5 years at 6.75. Like 5 straight years of being an elite team where 9 this summer really restricts this team for 2 years then all you're doing is planning Johnny's new deal after that

Even when Johnny is a ufa having Monahan tkachuk lindholm hanifin all signed for under 7 in a 90 mil cap world probably allows some flexibility

See the Oilers when you talk always going for max term and how that looks
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:23 PM   #65
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Fans also under estimate how long 5 or 6 years is. Sure 8 years would be great to sign tkachuk for but if you're paying 9 per when 6 gets 7.75ish and 5 gets you 6.75 things could go pretty good for the flames for 5 years at 6.75. Like 5 straight years of being an elite team where 9 this summer really restricts this team for 2 years then all you're doing is planning Johnny's new deal after that

Even when Johnny is a ufa having Monahan tkachuk lindholm hanifin all signed for under 7 in a 90 mil cap world probably allows some flexibility

See the Oilers when you talk always going for max term and how that looks
Brad is very smart with how he structures term. If he sticks with 6 years that means that Matthew is up for renewal at least 1 year after everybody else, with Lindholm & Hanifin due for big raises the previous offseason. And by then the salary cap would have increased to the point of being able to absorb a raise of 3-4 million at best and keep him a Flame.

If that figure of 7.75 for 6 years is pretty on the mark, then it means that Matthew signed for about the same percentage of the salary cap that the "Giordano" cap of 6.75 was signed at. I believe he would rather use this figure to set the new era "Tkachuk" cap that will decide future contracts for all, over trying to lowball him at 6.75 x 5.

It is for these reasons that I think he will try to push hard for a 7.75 x 6 over pushing the AAV higher to lock him up for an extra two seasons. And if I were in Tkachuk's camp I'd be of course pushing for max term of 8 and the highest AAV. Guaranteed money.
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:31 PM   #66
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If tkachuk hits 90 points it will be next to impossible to sign him for less than 8, and most likely less than 9.

There are basically no players in the league right now scoring 80 points for cap hits less than 9 million.

Based in this year he's a 10 million dollar player.
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:36 PM   #67
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There are basically no players in the league right now scoring 80 points for cap hits less than 9 million

Looks like we might have 2 or 3
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:37 PM   #68
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If Tkachuk hits 90 points (holy crap) he'll either be the 3rd or 4th Flame forward (holy crap crap) to do so this season. All things are go in negotiations so Treliving could leverage the fact that yes, that's a lot of points, but you're still the 4th scoring forward on this team. Use Gaudreau's, Monahan's, Lindholm's contracts as leverage.

Tkachuk's camp of course won't be doing that.

Fully expect this to drag late into summer.
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:42 PM   #69
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If Tkachuk hits 90 points (holy crap) he'll either be the 3rd or 4th Flame forward (holy crap crap) to do so this season. All things are go in negotiations so Treliving could leverage the fact that yes, that's a lot of points, but you're still the 4th scoring forward on this team. Use Gaudreau's, Monahan's, Lindholm's contracts as leverage.

Tkachuk's camp of course won't be doing that.

Fully expect this to drag late into summer.

Playing on his own line. It actually works in his agents favor that he does not need to be carried by other great players.


That being said I think all these young guys really love playing with each other. I actually think he will take a slight discount.
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:50 PM   #70
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Playing on his own line. It actually works in his agents favor that he does not need to be carried by other great players.
Tkachuk has 35 points at even strength, 20 point points on the power play with those players. These arguments could go either way.

Does he have 35 points at EVS on his own, away from the big line? Or does the 2nd line see much easier competition than the big line? Again... this is gonna drag on.
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Old 01-17-2019, 03:54 PM   #71
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He's carrying around brick layers and scoring at an impressive rate 5-5.

The 8.5 million draisaitl contract is the starting point in my mind.
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Old 01-17-2019, 05:13 PM   #72
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I actually don’t think previous comparisons are going to work for Tkachuk’s camp and a lot of the other RFAs this summer.

I think it’s all going to come down to what Auston Matthews gets. If Arizona jumps in with a stupidly high offer sheet like 15M x 8, then that’ll reset the market. Toronto likely matches like they said they’ll do. Marner then won’t come under $10M because he won’t want to be too far behind Matthews (ala Draisaitl).

Then once those dominoes fall, everyone will set their price shortly after. Tkachuk and his agent could get a really big number depending on how hard they push and how high up Tkachuk finishes in the scoring race.

This could be the craziest summer we’ve ever seen with how strong the UFA and RFA class is.
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Old 01-17-2019, 05:22 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by LWcrowfoot View Post
If Tkachuk hits 90 points (holy crap) he'll either be the 3rd or 4th Flame forward (holy crap crap) to do so this season. All things are go in negotiations so Treliving could leverage the fact that yes, that's a lot of points, but you're still the 4th scoring forward on this team. Use Gaudreau's, Monahan's, Lindholm's contracts as leverage.

Tkachuk's camp of course won't be doing that.

Fully expect this to drag late into summer.

So Keith Tkachuk has a history of wanting max dollar, in a pre cap world. But Keith Tkachuk also retired and found himself without a cup. I wonder if he has any opinions about that.

If I am Treliving, surely part of the messaging is what it takes to assemble a team with this level of talent in the cap world.
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Old 01-17-2019, 05:34 PM   #74
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If tkachuk hits 90 points it will be next to impossible to sign him for less than 8, and most likely less than 9.

There are basically no players in the league right now scoring 80 points for cap hits less than 9 million.

Based in this year he's a 10 million dollar player.
Scoring is up league wide so the 90 point threshold isnt what it was last year.
No way he sees an AAV at 10m IMO. He'll be holding out all season if that what he thinks he's worth.

Also, the majority of players on an 80-point pace don't make 9m and that's taking into account guys who are on expiring deals and ELCs.

Last edited by blender; 01-17-2019 at 05:42 PM.
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Old 01-17-2019, 05:50 PM   #75
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somebody less lazy than me do the math to see what his totals this year would of equaled using last years league wide scoring rate. I agree scoring is up it should be compared apples to apples.
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Old 01-17-2019, 06:36 PM   #76
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Scoring is up league wide so the 90 point threshold isnt what it was last year.
No way he sees an AAV at 10m IMO. He'll be holding out all season if that what he thinks he's worth.

Also, the majority of players on an 80-point pace don't make 9m and that's taking into account guys who are on expiring deals and ELCs.
Agree with this. Drasaitls contract gets mentioned and he had 77 points but those 77 points were good for 8th in the league. Tkachuk is 14th in scoring.

Drasaitls contract was also elavated as he was deemed a big franchise type center. Tkachuk is a winger.

I love tkachuk and he could get 9 in a 83 cap world on 8 year deal but I think its possible to see less than 8 per on a deal around 6 to 7 years. If not I'm ok with 5 or 6 years at 7 or less and see what bt can do with a younger already good team with 4 to 5 years of as good as it gets cap situation. Tkachuk at 6.75 and guys like Bennett rittich Hathaway on short term cheap deals will give bt options. Most only looking at who we can add as a ufa and say we can't afford those players. But bt seems to be much better and trading with teams that are hurting against the cap. What rfa situation out there like lindholm and hanifin can he expose?

Tampa? Toronto? Winnipeg? San Jose? Might be some young player that haven't broke out yet available. Always good to keep some wiggle room to expose the teams that don't even if that involves risk 5 years from now. History shows successful teams retain their players
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Old 01-17-2019, 06:43 PM   #77
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Last season on this date, there had been 4026 goals scored in 1386 team games played league-wide (693 total games). That equals an average of 2.90 goals scored per team each game. This season, there have been 4393 goals scored in 1450 team games played league-wide (725 total games). That equals an average of 3.03 goals scored per team each game.

While scoring is up, it's not a massive amount. It's about one extra goal every 8 games or so.



Where the big increase shows up is in the top-end of individual scoring. Last year on this date, Kucherov led the league with 60 points and 11 players had reached 50 points. Today, 60 points is 8th overall and 28 players have 50 points.

Four players have already reached 70 points this season. Last season, the first player didn't hit 70 points until February 13 and the fourth player didn't hit 70 points until February 22.


I have no idea what any of that will mean for Tkachuk's next contract since he is in the upper-echelon of scoring right now. While he's tied for 13th overall in points, he's also tied for 3rd on the team in points.
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Old 01-17-2019, 06:57 PM   #78
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Last season on this date, there had been 4026 goals scored in 1386 games played league-wide. That equals an average of 2.90 goals scored per game. This season, there have been 4393 goals scored in 1450 games played league-wide. That equals an average of 3.03 goals scored per game.

While scoring is up, it's not a massive amount. It's about one extra goal every 8 games or so.



Where the big increase shows up is in the top-end of individual scoring. Last year on this date, Kucherov led the league with 60 points and 11 players had reached 50 points. Today, 60 points is 8th overall and 28 players have 50 points.

Four players have already reached 70 points this season. Last season, the first player didn't hit 70 points until February 13 and the fourth player didn't hit 70 points until February 22.


I have no idea what any of that will mean for Tkachuk's next contract since he is in the upper-echelon of scoring right now. While he's tied for 13th overall in points, he's also tied for 3rd on the team in points.
Another big factor is power plays the last 2 seasons average over 20 percent. For years that average was around 18 percent

Last average goals per game was 2.97 up from 2.77 and this year is 3.06. So looking at point totals from 2 years ago scoring is way up and power plays are up so its distributied to less players. This is why all you ever hear on TV is teams starved for depth scoring. If you aren't on the first pp your probably way behind the guys that are on the first pp on your team in scoring
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Old 01-17-2019, 07:09 PM   #79
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Yet another factor that MAY come into play is if GMs decide to start holding the line on RFA salaries.
Certainly in MLB GMs are resisting the impulse to give out massive deals as evidenced by the free agent situation this off season. Not directly comparable, but there is no doubt that NHL RFA deals have been runaway lately for both dollars and terms, and I can't help but think that there is due to be a pushback.
You never know what any given GM will do on any given day, but I feel like the volume of outstanding young RFAs this offseason suggests that if there ever was a time to hold the line it would be now.
Food for thought.
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Old 01-17-2019, 07:24 PM   #80
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Yet another factor that MAY come into play is if GMs decide to start holding the line on RFA salaries.
Certainly in MLB GMs are resisting the impulse to give out massive deals as evidenced by the free agent situation this off season. Not directly comparable, but there is no doubt that NHL RFA deals have been runaway lately for both dollars and terms, and I can't help but think that there is due to be a pushback.
You never know what any given GM will do on any given day, but I feel like the volume of outstanding young RFAs this offseason suggests that if there ever was a time to hold the line it would be now.
Food for thought.
GM's are going to start using Nylander as the basis for this too. Nylander might have been the last one that got away with a humongous deal.

I'm not too worried about what Treliving is going to do with Tkachuk and Rittich. Tkachuk, prior to this season, didn't look like he would be commanding any kind of money north 6m. But, after this season, things are changing just a little. I think Treliving is going to play it safe and just sign Tkachuk to a 6 year deal. IIRC that at least buys us 1/2 UFA years.
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