Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Lubicon]

You could argue that this is worse than in 1995. Sales per 100k population are about 450 this February compared to ~500 back then.

Probably belongs in the GMG thread but I really don't like when they state year over year stats. Five and 10 year averages are a little better but i think they need to be reporting on a consistent basis (for example 'per 100k population). Obviously as the population grows the sales numbers should grow accordingly, but what is more important is how the sales compare to population change.

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by polak

You mean <500?

yes, thanks. fixed.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

You could argue that this is worse than in 1995. Sales per 100k population are about 450 this February compared to ~500 back then.

Probably belongs in the GMG thread but I really don't like when they state year over year stats. Five and 10 year averages are a little better but i think they need to be reporting on a consistent basis (for example 'per 100k population). Obviously as the population grows the sales numbers should grow accordingly, but what is more important is how the sales compare to population change.

Good point, that's another 10% less sales.

[Harry Lime]

A cross Canada poll, and the most talked about factor in the comments seems to be on foreign ownership. I wonder if the Liberal government is more likely to act on this than the Conservative one was. A change would effect Calgary somewhat, but Vancouver and Toronto would be the biggest change, obviously.

"No fewer than 45 per cent in Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Montreal or Halifax view prices as either high or unreasonably high," Angus Reid said in a release accompanying the poll. Even in Calgary, where the ongoing economic downturn has slowed new construction and left analysts warning a market correction may be underway — nearly half of respondents said prices remain too high.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/angu...poll-1.3465574


The fact that this subject doesn't seem to just want to die and drift away, like so many others, may mean that it has the legs to actually see a response.

[tvp2003]

Anybody house hunting right now? I heard something like 80% of all sales last month were sub $500k?

Also gotta think those severance packages will start to dry up soon... lots on the market it seems (especially inner city)?

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Anybody house hunting right now? I heard something like 80% of all sales last month were sub $500k?

Also gotta think those severance packages will start to dry up soon... lots on the market it seems (especially inner city)?

We are (sort of).

We are hoping to upgrade to a bigger/nicer place (~750k) and take advantage of the weakening market at that price range. There is no imminent need for us to move though, it is being driven entirely by opportunity.

We will be listing our current place in May to test the market and then gauge whether or not to start aggressively pursuing a new house.

I've got about 6 or 7 places that I'm interested in. And none of them have sold in over 2 months, so I'm anticipating the price drops to come fast and furious when spring arrives.

If we get a solid offer on our current place, I'll send out lowball offers to each of those places and see if anyone is interested.

[Bonded]

I am kind of looking as well and probably pissing off my realtor. I am kind of stuck, can afford a house in the 450 range, but I can wait two years until the wife is done school and we can get into the 650k range.

Not sure if the best play is to bite the bullet and buy in the 450k range or wait until she is working and get into the higher ranges.

For what it is worth, anything nice that is sub 400k has been selling.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I am kind of looking as well and probably pissing off my realtor. I am kind of stuck, can afford a house in the 450 range, but I can wait two years until the wife is done school and we can get into the 650k range.

Not sure if the best play is to bite the bullet and buy in the 450k range or wait until she is working and get into the higher ranges.

For what it is worth, anything nice that is sub 400k has been selling.

Obviously wait.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

I'm guessing Condos are not selling as well as town houses?

[troutman]

A lender told me today that many purchases are falling apart right now because they can't sell their existing homes as the pre-condition on their purchase.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

I've got about 6 or 7 places that I'm interested in. And none of them have sold in over 2 months, so I'm anticipating the price drops to come fast and furious when spring arrives.

Generally I would say that sales increase in the Spring and prices go up, but this year is unpredictable.

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by troutman

Generally I would say that sales increase in the Spring and prices go up, but this year is unpredictable.

I agree, normally. But I don't think it will happen this year.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I am kind of looking as well and probably pissing off my realtor. I am kind of stuck, can afford a house in the 450 range, but I can wait two years until the wife is done school and we can get into the 650k range.

Not sure if the best play is to bite the bullet and buy in the 450k range or wait until she is working and get into the higher ranges.

For what it is worth, anything nice that is sub 400k has been selling.

Depends where you think the market will go.
If you think it will recover and pick up again, you're better off getting in and having your 450k place increase; then have some equity to help you trade up.

If you think it's gonna stay flat or go down, then wait as you're not missing out on anything.

Also, consider 2 years of renting and what that expenditure means to you.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by troutman

A lender told me today that many purchases are falling apart right now because they can't sell their existing homes as the pre-condition on their purchase.

Technically it was never a purchase as the sale of their existing home would have been a condition and that condition can remain for months at a time while the seller is allowed to continue to market the home. Either the initial attempted purchaser sells their home and the deal goes through or another purchaser steps in and buys it without the sale of their own home condition.

What I am finding very common is that Buyer A puts their home up for sale while shopping. They put in a offer on a place conditional to a sale or simply keep an eye on the property as they wait for theirs to sell. Interest comes in on buyer A's property however that buyer is also in a position where they need to sell their home. Its a long continuous chain but once 1 person is able to get the sale it opens the door to a few.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Its a long continuous chain but once 1 person is able to get the sale it opens the door to a few.

Yeah, it is funny that the sale of a $2M mansion could fall thru just because someone cannot get a mortgage on a $200K condo.

[troutman]

Yes, hopefully once a few dominoes start falling a whole chain of deals will come together.

[canadianmoosette]

There are lots of good deals out there right now and lots of wiggle room with prices since houses are sitting on the market for a long time. The husband and I just bought after a house we were watching dropped in price by 15k. We went to see it that weekend and turns out the lady was moving to BC and a previous purchase deal fell through. She was very motivated to sell so we were able to negotiate an even lower price. I think in the next few months it will be interesting to see what the market does. More people might be selling due to financial circumstances, but if the majority of serious potential buyers are following the advice of "don't buy right now, wait until the end of the year", there is going to be more competition for those houses and less wiggle room for deals since good houses wont be sitting on the market for very long.

[Canehdianman]

That's a fair point.

I'm still on the sidelines mostly because we haven't listed our place yet, but also because I don't want to try to catch a falling knife.

Buying a house for 750k that was listed at 850k sounds like a great deal, until it keeps dropping down to 600k.

I'm hoping to see at least a solid bottom on oil prices before I pull the trigger.

[BrownDrake]

The problems in Canada are very similar to the US housing crash, we were just saved by a lowering of interest rates in 2008/9

Our home prices are out of control and going lower for the next 5 years even in a moderate oil recovery. Credit will not be easier to come by in the next 5 years as the previous 10. No more 40 year, zero downs, 35 year amortizations are now difficult. Down payment requirements going up and amortizations going down.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

The problems in Canada are very similar to the US housing crash, we were just saved by a lowering of interest rates in 2008/9

Our home prices are out of control and going lower for the next 5 years even in a moderate oil recovery. Credit will not be easier to come by in the next 5 years as the previous 10. No more 40 year, zero downs, 35 year amortizations are now difficult. Down payment requirements going up and amortizations going down.

Are there a lot of NINJA loans and subprime in general here that have been securitized and passed through the system?