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View Poll Results: What do you think of the trade after a week of getting your head around it?
Love it, think Lucic is an upgrade 75 12.84%
Like it, clears some cap space even if Lucic is no better 185 31.68%
Indifferent, both teams getting a failed project 178 30.48%
Dislike it, Neal needed another year to bounce back 101 17.29%
Hate it, Neal will be better in Edmonton 45 7.71%
Voters: 584. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-26-2019, 02:01 PM   #2641
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Yeah I don't have a clue.

But that's the beautiful thing about assumptions, right? If I'm right this was their only course of action.

So are the assumptions extreme or wrong?

1. Wanting Neal gone seems like a safe one, but I don't have the inside knowledge of the room. However there are two scenarios here. One, is the guy is poison and had to go. The less extreme reason for wanting him gone is knowing you won't be giving him the top six minutes needed to turn it around. Either way you want him out.

2. The ownership was against a long term buy out. Don't know this one either, but Treliving's comments to Haynes that he summarized sure points to this as likely. If true, it's easier to move the player for a player harder to buy out since you're not giving up the option if you never planned on using it anyway.

So from there I'm guessing neither guy could find a deal (Holland/Treliving) that didn't come with getting an ugly asset back. But once again an assumption.
All that is pretty fair and not going to argue with. And maybe it came down to who would blink first.

You could make all those same assumptions with Holland and Lucic that you’re making about the Flames.

But man if Neal was really that much poison, Flames need to look at things like that in signing veteran UFA’s. Versatility and handling a lesser role just seems like basic stuff to assess.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:07 PM   #2642
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I am trying to think of the longest contract that has been bought out that was not a compliance buyout? We see guys with 2 years left a lot.
Dipietro on the Island easily takes the cake
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:08 PM   #2643
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But the guy that's leaving can't play a bottom six role because he isn't a defensive player and lacks the foot speed.
Lucic does not do either of those things either.

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He won't get to play with top six players in Calgary so he won't score.
Which is true, but irrelevant when assessing the value of the player to the team acquiring him. He *will* get those minutes with Edmonton, and has a reasonable chance of bouncing back in doing so. That has value.

Ultimately we are debating the difference between Czarnik and Peluso here. Both players who have a different role but who probably don't have a place in a contending team's opening lineup. They're both bad, just different types of player who you don't count on to contribute much. It's a wash.

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Lucic has a better chance of adapting to a permanent bottom six role and is still a spooky guy to deal with.
This is where I think you're wrong. The league has moved away from big dumb gorillas who can't skate, because players simply don't engage with them. They leave that their own tough guy to mix it up and put on a show, and by and large it acts as a deterrent to nothing. The place for this kind of player has long since faded, except in Alberta it seems.

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If there wasn't a toxic asset going the other way I'd hate this. But the differential seems to be getting ignored here.
I'm not ignoring it, I've very much taken that into consideration. Lucic had to be moved just as bad as Neal did, so that aspect of the trade balances out in my mind. It's easy to handwave things away by saying "this was the best offer available," but it's not like teams were beating down the door to get Lucic either, and he had long outstayed his welcome with the Oilers. The Flames held the leverage with a contract that theoretically held less risk and should've been compensated for that.

There is no way the Oilers can lose here. So why was the sweetener only valued at a 3rd round pick? It's ridiculous.

The only conclusion I'm left to make is that the 'sweetener' was not a hockey asset at all, it was the money saved by Murray Edwards. As a fan I really don't care about some London-based billionaire's bottom line, so that's how I'm judging it. It's a crappy trade not because of the players involved (which are equally bad), but because of what *wasn't* included to make up for the Flames taking on the far more problematic contract.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:12 PM   #2644
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I'm sure Tre called around but the trade was made mid July...what was the ####ing rush??

Oilers would have done this deal any time, should have held out for more.

I know we are putting a positive spin on things but with 90% of the hockey world thinks its a bad deal for the Flames it probably is. It may not turn out as bad as some think but Flames are assuming all the risk for some reason when it was the Oilers who had the worse contract.
Well, to be fair, roughly the same 90% were all "it's a question of how many" regarding Cup wins.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:16 PM   #2645
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Originally Posted by Strange Brew View Post
All that is pretty fair and not going to argue with. And maybe it came down to who would blink first.

You could make all those same assumptions with Holland and Lucic that you’re making about the Flames.

But man if Neal was really that much poison, Flames need to look at things like that in signing veteran UFA’s. Versatility and handling a lesser role just seems like basic stuff to assess.
Every transaction has the blink first dynamic.

The good ones get it right more often than not, but the hero split would be 60/40 not 90/10

And agree.

The 20 goal guy every year, and goes to the finals with every team was the positive. But what if it goes wrong? What kind of guy is this. Can he accept a lower role and still contribute or is it score or bust?
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:26 PM   #2646
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I’m indifferent to the players, but I dislike the trade because of the favour we did for their expansion draft list
Edmonton is going to struggle to find 8 or 10 skaters they even want to protect.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:29 PM   #2647
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This is not an example of the team being 'Hamstrung' by ownership. It is very normal for owners to have limits on how much money they'll spend on buyouts. Swapping Neal for Lucic does not hinder the team in the least, it's a wash at worst. If ownership would have allowed Tre to buyout Neal, I'm sure he would have... but then again, how much dead cap do you want?



This trade gives us more cap space, that is really the net from this trade. Stop thinking about a buyout, it wasn't going to happen. It was Neal for 4 more years at 5.75m per or Lucic for 4 more years at 5.25 per. And after the season Neal had and the healthy scratch in the playoffs, my guess is Neal asked to be moved. So if you're the GM you have a player who grossly underperformed, and likely wants a change of scenery. You know you have to move the asset and you know his contract is near unmovable. So yeah, it makes a lot of sense to make a deal like this.



Had he not made this deal we'd be going into the season with a useless fwd who can only play top 6 minutes to be effective, and doesn't want to be here. He'd be taking a spot from our younger guys, preventing their development. Or the coach could sit him, play a rookie instead - now it's costing us around 6.65m to have Neal on the roster.



I understand not liking this trade but what was Tre really supposed to do? Hope for a rebound season? We saw Neal play last year... I kept believing he would turn it around, but there was never a sign that that would happen. I'm sure management saw that too, and didn't want to risk having Neal drag the team down, again. Then you have a much worse situation, Neal would literally be unmovable at that point - if he isn't scoring he is not an NHL player. Lucic still is.

I agree this is a deal that had to happen. Where I take umbrage is with your last statement. Lucic is barely an NHL player in very much the same way Neal is. That much will become apparent to some folks around here very soon. He is not “better suited to a bottom 6 role” because neither should be anywhere in your lineup, unless I missed the memo that it’s 2011 again and “bottom 6 ability” is measured in how many hits and fights you lay on similarly useless players.

Again, what I don’t like is: a) A conditional 3rd is nothing, in the event the conditions are met. The Oilers get a benefit far greater than the value of a 3rd if such a scenario plays out. And b) there was nothing included to make up for the very real problems Lucic’s contract structure carries with it. The owner being unwilling to eat a buyout and wanting to save money has tangibly affected the dimensions of a hockey trade. This is a problem.

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Old 07-26-2019, 02:29 PM   #2648
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How many goals does Neal have to score to avoid being bought out eventually?
Say they do play him on the top line and he scores 22 goals. That means someone like Chiasson drops down a line and he would be lucky to put up the 15 goals that Kassian was allowed to do in that role and so forth. If he scores 22 this year, and than goes down to 18 the next year, and goal scoring is his game, is it enough to keep him?

Go back to the after the Allstar game in 2018, than all of last year. He has 10 goals in 86 regular season games. The signs of a decline are clearly there, and he will be 32 when the season starts. When the Flames signed him I figured they would be lucky to get 100 goals from Neal in 5 years, and that was contingent on him getting 25 or so in the first year. So really would 75 goals in the next 4 years be enough...probably not.

That all said, the Flames will be lucky to get 40 from Lucic.
I think 20ish goals for Neal is fine to not necessitate a buy out. His historicals show him as a 20-goal guy after all, and not much more than that, so to say he needs more than that to not force a buy out isn't valid for me.

While he had a horrendous year last season, I wouldn't say the signs of a decline are clear yet. If he has another season like the last though, I'll agree.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:31 PM   #2649
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A 3rd isn’t nothing. In fact it’s the most valuable draft pick after the outrageously valuable 1st rounders and extremely valuable 2nd rounders. It’s significantly more valuable than a 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th.

Calling a 3rd nothing is hyperbolic and really undermines yourself and your argument.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:33 PM   #2650
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Originally Posted by mrdonkey View Post
This is where I think you're wrong. The league has moved away from big dumb gorillas who can't skate, because players simply don't engage with them. They leave that their own tough guy to mix it up and put on a show, and by and large it acts as a deterrent to nothing. The place for this kind of player has long since faded, except in Alberta it seems.
He's not even that bad of a skater. Better than Neal, even though that doesn't mean anything. Player's don't have a choice to not engage with him when he just demolishes teammates over and over. If he wasn't an effective hitter then his hit count wouldn't be so high and youtube wouldn't be loaded with massive hits by him. The deterrent factor exists, albeit at a very slight level. By the sounds of things, I must be crazy because I see Lucic getting 30+ Points easily and moving up and down the lineup frequently. I'm sure he's more motivated now than ever before. On top of that, this is the first offseason he's actually used a skills trainer. Having never done that before the rewards might actually be relevant. I feel like I'm being reasonably optimistic here as well. If I'm wrong, oh well. Better off with a positive perspective until it has reason to change.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:39 PM   #2651
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While he had a horrendous year last season, I wouldn't say the signs of a decline are clear yet. If he has another season like the last though, I'll agree.
Lack of nhl skating? Check
Lack of nhl effort? Check
Lack of nhl caliber defensive play? Check
Zero sign of a threatening shot? Check

I mean Neal looked done as an nhler last year. Not sure how anyone who watched him closely would suggest the signs of decline aren’t clear yet. He literally showed zero signs he’ll ever be effective again imo.

Can he score 20+ with EDM? Wouldn’t surprise me. But he’s not an effective nhler at even strength. He’s dead weight.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:42 PM   #2652
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A 3rd isn’t nothing. In fact it’s the most valuable draft pick after the outrageously valuable 1st rounders and extremely valuable 2nd rounders. It’s significantly more valuable than a 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th.

Calling a 3rd nothing is hyperbolic and really undermines yourself and your argument.

List of the franchise’s 3rd round picks that played for the team as anything better than a borderline player:

Mike Vernon
Chris Clark
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
Lance Bouma (for one season)

Across nearly 40 years.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:43 PM   #2653
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I agree this is a deal that had to happen. Where I take umbrage is with your last statement. Lucic is barely an NHL player in very much the same way Neal is. That much will become apparent to some folks around here very soon. He is not “better suited to a bottom 6 role” because neither should be anywhere in your lineup, unless I missed the memo that it’s 2011 again and “bottom 6 ability” is measured in how many hits and fights you lay on similarly useless players.

Again, what I don’t like is: a) A conditional 3rd is nothing, in the event the conditions are met. The Oilers get a benefit far greater than the value of a 3rd if such a scenario plays out. And b) there was nothing included to make up for the very real problems Lucic’s contract structure carries with it. The owner being unwilling to eat a buyout and wanting to save money has tangibly affected the dimensions of a hockey trade. This is a problem.
The underlying numbers don't suggest that, but we will see.

I don't subscribe to the notion that the "eye test" is more accurate than numbers as they're pretty hard to fake or sway. But I'm sure all of us would agree it's different to watch a player play for team X than the Flames, your focus is different.

I'm prepared for a skill limited big guy that likes to play the body and can snap once and awhile. I feel pretty safe that those elements are still apparent. Does he repeat his underlying numbers in Calgary and play the role of a guy that can be in the bottom six and not hurt you? Hope so ... but we will see.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:45 PM   #2654
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Originally Posted by mrdonkey View Post
List of the franchise’s 3rd round picks that played for the team as anything better than a borderline player:

Mike Vernon
Chris Clark
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
Lance Bouma (for one season)

Across nearly 40 years.
And leaving out the players selected in rounds 4-7 which could have been selected in the 3rd round seem like cherry picking at best.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:49 PM   #2655
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Originally Posted by mrdonkey View Post
List of the franchise’s 3rd round picks that played for the team as anything better than a borderline player:

Mike Vernon
Chris Clark
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
Lance Bouma (for one season)

Across nearly 40 years.
So you're making the argument that a third round pick has no value? Limited value? And based on one team's historical draft record with many different people in charge of the draft?

Man just look at the team's 3rd through 6th rounders in the last four years for a more valid study.

Adam Fox
Andrew Mangiapane
Adam Ruzicka
Emilio Pettersen
D. Koumontisis
M Pospisil
I. Nikolaev

All interesting with value.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:50 PM   #2656
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Originally Posted by mrdonkey View Post
List of the franchise’s 3rd round picks that played for the team as anything better than a borderline player:

Mike Vernon
Chris Clark
Matthew Lombardi
Brandon Prust
Lance Bouma (for one season)

Across nearly 40 years.
a. You kind of missed the point.

b. But anyway, just because the team missed on picks doesn't lessen the value. I don't know what the average yield for draft picks is for third rounders, but even 5 is more than nothing.

c. On your analysis, they should have just said "make it a fourth" because Reichel, Gaudreau, Lydman, Kruse, Brodie, Kulak.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:56 PM   #2657
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So you're making the argument that a third round pick has no value? Limited value? And based on one team's historical draft record with many different people in charge of the draft?



Man just look at the team's 3rd through 6th rounders in the last four years for a more valid study.



Adam Fox

Andrew Mangiapane

Adam Ruzicka

Emilio Pettersen

D. Koumontisis

M Pospisil

I. Nikolaev



All interesting with value.

I’m making the argument that a 3rd round pick has minimal value. My post was meant not as an indictment of the team’s drafting or to cherry pick, but as a window into how rare it is for those picks to translate into actual hockey assets. Once you get past the first two rounds it’s a complete crap shoot.

Certainly the possibility of Neal bouncing back was considered, otherwise there would be no pick at all. My question is why was the possibility of Edmonton getting a 20+ goal scorer for a 4th line mook only valued at a 3rd round pick?

It’s so baffling to me that I can only conclude Treliving blinked and made a trade designed by Holland to be a win-win for himself, and Edwards left him no choice.
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Old 07-26-2019, 03:02 PM   #2658
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I’m making the argument that a 3rd round pick has minimal value. My post was meant not as an indictment of the team’s drafting or to cherry pick, but as a window into how rare it is for those picks to translate into actual hockey assets. Once you get past the first two rounds it’s a complete crap shoot.

Certainly the possibility of Neal bouncing back was considered, otherwise there would be no pick at all. My question is why was the possibility of Edmonton getting a 20+ goal scorer for a 4th line mook only valued at a 3rd round pick?

It’s so baffling to me that I can only conclude Treliving blinked and made a trade designed by Holland to be a win-win for himself, and Edwards left him no choice.
Because it was, or the deal would have been different.

Once again ... do you think he didn't ask? Do you think he didn't try? Did Holland say how about a first and Treliving said "no that's too much!, how about a third instead?"

Short of these assumptions the answer is the answer. That's all he could get. So if 29 teams have zero interest, and one team has interest but only if you get a toxic asset back and they throw in a conditional third it pretty much tells you the league doesn't look at Neal as a "20+ goal scorer"

Right?

This trade can't be a win win for either side.

Calgary is getting Lucic.
Edmonton is getting Neal.
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Old 07-26-2019, 03:07 PM   #2659
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Anyone scoring 20 goals on McDavids line is a guy who scored 20 goals, not a 20 goal guy. There's a huge difference.
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Old 07-26-2019, 03:10 PM   #2660
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Because it was, or the deal would have been different.



Once again ... do you think he didn't ask? Do you think he didn't try? Did Holland say how about a first and Treliving said "no that's too much!, how about a third instead?"



Short of these assumptions the answer is the answer. That's all he could get. So if 29 teams have zero interest, and one team has interest but only if you get a toxic asset back and they throw in a conditional third it pretty much tells you the league doesn't look at Neal as a "20+ goal scorer"



Right?

Being “all you could get” is not an excuse. It’s a reductive approach to evaluating trades, because obviously you take the best of what’s offered to you. BUT, part of the job of being GM is to negotiate with 30 other people trying to rip you off to benefit themselves. Again, I don’t lay this entirely at the feet of Treliving. I think Edwards is to blame here for tying his hands. It’s another “Ken King was on a plane” situation that has negatively impacted hockey operations, and that doesn’t sit well with me.

“It was the best offer available” doesn’t stop any of the Iginla, Bouwmeester, Regehr, and Phaneuf trades from being viewed as bad. They were bad when they happened, and they were bad with the power of hindsight.

The relative risk/reward balance favours the Oilers heavily. And rightly or not it will be seen as something to be held against Treliving when the time comes to evaluate whether he is the person to put together a winning team.
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