Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Weitz

He was easily the worst player on the ice a lot of nights.

So much so that the Oilers wanted him off the team.

I’d agree with most overpaid. But he was not the worst player on the team. We can’t sit here and applaud Hathaway when Lucic did the same thing. We can laugh at the contract, but he does what he does. Neal no longer does what he’s suppose to.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by Weitz

He was easily the worst player on the ice a lot of nights.

So much so that the Oilers wanted him off the team.

A lot of nights? Well James Neal was the Flames worst player every night.

He was so bad that we traded him for Milan Lucic. So there's that.

[jlh2640]

The more I sit on this trade the more I like it. He brings some actual toughness, both him and Neal were bad last year. Lucic is cheaper and a year younger, and I think can play better in the lower 6 than Neal did. Also Neal is as slow as Lucic. Plus the potential 3rd rounder. equal years left on their deals. Worth a shot. I just wish we had Kept Smith for 2 mil instead of signing Talbot for 2,75

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm highly skeptical of this argument. In the regular season our team was tied for tops in the NHL with the sharks for even strength high danger goals with 128. While that can't qualify the dirtyness of the goal, it typically does signal a willingness to crash the net.

I think if we lacked in any area it was goals scored from outside by forwards. Guys like MacKinnon and Rantanen were scoring OT winners from 25+ feet out on Smith in the playoffs with absolute snipes and we had no one who could do the same at the other end as all our goal scoring forwards are muffin shooters who depend on dirty goals.

I reject the idea that we didn't score dirty goals. Mangiapane, Monahan, Tkachuk, Bennett, Hathaway, Backlund, Frolik, Ryan, Lindholm... all these guys were crashing the net hard all year. About the only forward who was scoring primarily from outside / on pretty plays seemed to be Czarnik. And that worked because he brought an element that was sorely missed. Even Monahan, our best shooter, rarely steps out of his typical scoring areas, although they're further out than most of the team.

Agree with all of this. Enjoy your takes.
So after the near khadri trade its obviouse that the team is looking at center most likely however i think the addition of a pure sniper rw wing would be just as good on the short term. It would force backs into a more offensive minded thinking. I like frolik but the team would be a real threat if the second line was also driving offense more consistently. A sniper would improve the second powerplay and as you pointed out seems to be the element missing from the offense of the team.

Thought we got it with Neal but alas it was not so.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

The more I sit on this trade the more I like it. He brings some actual toughness, both him and Neal were bad last year. Lucic is cheaper and a year younger, and I think can play better in the lower 6 than Neal did. Also Neal is as slow as Lucic. Plus the potential 3rd rounder. equal years left on their deals. Worth a shot. I just wish we had Kept Smith for 2 mil instead of signing Talbot for 2,75

Outside of the end of the season for Smith, both he and Neal were by far the most frustrating players on the team.

I'm glad both are gone, even if both have a good season in Edmonton.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Weitz

He was easily the worst player on the ice a lot of nights.

So much so that the Oilers wanted him off the team.

I'm sure Lucic was perceived as the worst player on the ice on some nights, and some nights may even have been.

But the numbers don't suggest that he was the Oilers' worst player.

With 400 minutes 5v5 as the cutoff:

Lucic was 13th of 16 on the Oilers in goals per 60 (0.26) and 5th of 16 on the Oilers in primary assists per 60 (0.58). His primary points/60 of 0.84 ranks 11th of 16, ahead of Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Spooner, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Rieder, and Colby Cave. And while he was 13th in goals rate, his expected goals was a smidge higher at 0.53 xGF/60 (11th) so it's still very possible he was still somewhat the victim of bad luck (or a lack of confidence), as easy as it is to reject that notion.

Neal was 13th of 13th on the Flames in goals per 60 (0.31) and 12th of 13 in primary assist per 60 (0.39). His primary points/60 of 0.7 ranks 13th of 13 and in fact trails Lucic. As for his expected goals, those were a bit higher at 0.62 xGF/60 (9th of 13) so not unlike Lucic, it's possible last year's goal scoring was the result of some bad luck as well, but not indicative of a top-tier goal scorer either.

Hathaway was 5th of 13th on the Flames in goals per 60 (0.84) yet 13th of 13 in primary assist per 60 (0.19, yikes). His primary points/60 of 1.02 ranks 12th of 13 on the Flames. His expected goals rate of 0.65 was 8th of 13 so he was the beneficiary of some very fortunate luck.

Then you look at the on-ice shot metrics:

Hathaway was 12th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted xGF% at 50.19%
Neal was 13th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted xGF% at 47.04%
Lucic was 4th of 16 on the Oilers in score-adjusted xGF% at 49.08%

Or even basic goals-scored ratios:

Hathaway was 4th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted GF% at 60.53% (totally sustainable )
Neal was 12th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted GF% at 44.56%
Lucic was 8th of 16 on the OIlers in score-adjusted GF% at 44.93%

However you wanna shake it, Lucic on a much worse team, was apparently more effective than Neal was on a much better team. He was higher up his team's shot metric charts and goal ratio charts, and he was even less far down his primary point charts.

I expect Lucic to at least match Hathaway in most of those areas besides GF% (which was hilariously inflated by the 4th line's unstoppable streak to close the season) and if his numbers relative to his team are any indication, it's likely he will outperform Hathaway rather than just match him. And Hathaway was clearly better than Neal last year.

My only question is how disciplined Lucic can be but that's something that's probably followed him his whole career, even in Boston, so I'm not going to lose sleep over it.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

A lot of nights? Well James Neal was the Flames worst player every night.

He was so bad that we traded him for Milan Lucic. So there's that.

Neal was so bad they sat him healthy in the most important game of the season.

The deal is garbage in garbage out for both teams. Both fan bases are looking for potential positives.

[AC]

Yep I don't think Flames fans are expecting Lucic to produce offensively.

5-10 goals but 200+ hits on a 3rd line would be great and a much more positive contribution than Neal was able to have.

[Ashes]

Can't say I watched many Oiler games last season besides the times they played the Flames. But Lucic put up 50 point seasons playing for Boston, who have puck moving D and tend to have a lot of possession of the puck. To me, that would indicate that Lucic could contribute more with the Flames, who have a similar puck moving style.

It didn't work with Neal last season obviously but he never looked comfortable skating the puck up ice and would float around waiting for his line mates to do the heavy lifting and gift him an opportunity to shoot. What I've seen from Lucic leads me to believe he's willing to battle for the puck and stay engaged. So with that in mind, I think Lucic could contribute more offensively when he's playing on a team that plays a puck possession game like Calgary IMO.

I'm not expecting 50 points but with the excitement of playing for a new team and having guys like McGratton and Iginla to ease his transition, I'm holding out hope for 30 - 40 points for Lucic while providing physicality we sorely lacked in some games last season.

Must be a nice feeling for Hamonic too, he's tough as nails but not a heavyweight fighter.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Rando

Neal was so bad they sat him healthy in the most important game of the season.
.

This is something that I dont think can be repeated enough:
in the biggest game of this flames year (dare I say, the most important game in the last 4 seasons) the coach decided that the team would be better off playing a 19 year old rookie who had never played in the playoffs rather than Neal, who was ostensibly brought in to provide leadership in the playoffs.

Neal was dragging this team down.

[dino7c]

Neal cost the team game 4 and was scratched in game 5

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Toonage

^ Nope. It is what it is.

Why wouldn't he waive for the expansion draft? All it does is help his own team. Listening to Brad it's already been discussed

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why wouldn't he waive for the expansion draft? All it does is help his own team. Listening to Brad it's already been discussed

Yep, he very well might do that. But the question was about the trade and nothing was amended following the deal.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why wouldn't he waive for the expansion draft? All it does is help his own team. Listening to Brad it's already been discussed

To me the NMC is the only sour point in the deal. As Strange_Brew alluded to early hopefully Treliving actually has an agreement in place, in written for the expansion draft and not just a wish and a prayer like Feaster.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This is something that I dont think can be repeated enough:
in the biggest game of this flames year (dare I say, the most important game in the last 4 seasons) the coach decided that the team would be better off playing a 19 year old rookie who had never played in the playoffs rather than Neal, who was ostensibly brought in to provide leadership in the playoffs.

Neal was dragging this team down.

So why did Peters wait until the very last chance to healthy scratch Neal?

Or was there more that mid season injury?

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So why did Peters wait until the very last chance to healthy scratch Neal?

Or was there more that mid season injury?

Patience finally ran out? Going for a leisurely skate on the winning goal in game four was the straw that broke the camels back?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Futzee

Is there some chance that Lucic waived his NTC as part of this trade and that just hasn't been discussed yet? The only way I can fathom this deal is if we don't have to protect him in the expansion draft.

Treliving asked about the NMC by Pinder directly, and he said "we are very comfortable ..." about six times in a paragraph long answer.

I'd read between the lines that Lucic isn't allowed to waive this early but he's agreed when that time comes it's not a problem.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Treliving asked about the NMC by Pinder directly, and he said "we are very comfortable ..." about six times in a paragraph long answer.

I'd read between the lines that Lucic isn't allowed to waive this early but he's agreed when that time comes it's not a problem.

I thought someone shared a tweet showing the date when a player can waive the expansion draft... I can’t recall though. But I was under the impression the clause cannot be waived until fairly close to the expansion draft

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Treliving asked about the NMC by Pinder directly, and he said "we are very comfortable ..." about six times in a paragraph long answer.

I'd read between the lines that Lucic isn't allowed to waive this early but he's agreed when that time comes it's not a problem.

I doubt there is anything preventing Lucic from legally waiving it now.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I thought someone shared a tweet showing the date when a player can waive the expansion draft... I can’t recall though. But I was under the impression the clause cannot be waived until fairly close to the expansion draft

He can't actually waive it until the expansion draft, there is nothing to waive yet. But I'm sure he could legally agree now to waive it when the time comes.