American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[dino7c]

Biden is polling much better than Hillary, they are being very cautious and trying to factor things that went wrong last time.

[OldSam]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

Fired up and ready to go! Vintage Obama in Orlando. Same message but still a pleasure to listen to - funny guy too!

No kidding. Brilliant orator.

[octothorp]

One other aspect I've read about the advantage for the Democrats in having great early-voting and vote-by-mail efforts is that it makes election day GotV out. If 80% of your supporters have already voted, and you can spend your GotV efforts on the remaining 20%, that's a huge advantage over a party where those numbers are reversed.

[nfotiu]

Somebody needs to convince me that the spikes in republican registration in the key states to a Trump victory like PA,AZ,NC,Fl are not a red flag that there is organized cheating going on. I know all the studies saying flat out cheating is rare in past elections, but I'm sure it could be done with some organization. If you could get a list with inactive voters and register in their name, you could get a mail in ballot or vote in states without voter id laws.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by OldSam

No kidding. Brilliant orator.

The best thing about Obama his wit and superior communication skills just triggers the heck out of racists.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by dobbles

I just want to know your take on the powerhouse Poweshiek county?!?!?!?!

Its super rural but does have super liberal Grinnell College.

Not a ton of votes there because Grinnell is a pretty small town—nothing like the burgeoning Iowa City/Coralville metro area that I used to live in..... . But I would say it’s a swing district not unlike Boone (which is partly rural and partly a satellite of Ames, where Iowa State University sits. Trump won it by about 600 votes in 2016, and Obama won it by about 800 in 2012–it looks like part of that was stronger democratic turnout, maybe from the college. But with only about 10,000 voters total it likely isn’t a huge contributor to the overall margin either way—Biden needs to keep all of those counties close if he can and run up huge margins in Johnson and Polk.

On the other hand, 4,800 people have already voted there. That is close to half the likely voters in that county and if Biden leads among those voters (a fact we don’t and can’t really know though the campaign may have info about that) AND if that is a pattern we see statewide, Trump may have to pull a bit of a GOTV rabbit out of his hat there.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Somebody needs to convince me that the spikes in republican registration in the key states to a Trump victory like PA,AZ,NC,Fl are not a red flag that there is organized cheating going on. I know all the studies saying flat out cheating is rare in past elections, but I'm sure it could be done with some organization. If you could get a list with inactive voters and register in their name, you could get a mail in ballot or vote in states without voter id laws.

I don't know that I can convince you, but I can at least offer a plausible explanation:

Registration tends to lag actual voting patterns. Let's say you've got some independents, or even some disaffected Democrats in 2016. They get interested in Trump, even excited, and they make the choice to vote for Trump. We know this happened. A lot. But these people are still registered as independents or Democrats when they vote. But they're now gradually listening to more right wing media. Republicans are using various tracking metrics to figure out who these people are, and target them with registration drives. But those changes don't come right away. It might take something like an upcoming election for people to actually get around to changing their registration. This results in the president's party gaining in terms of registrations, even if it's actually losing popularity in the polls.

[JohnnyB]

For those still interested in the remote work/work displacement/future of work discussion from earlier in the thread, this webinar/conference has been excellent so far. Quite relevant to the changing American landscape. Livestream still ongoing:
https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-future-work-conference

[troutman]

Right-wing hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman hit with felony charges in Cleveland tied to multi-state voter robocall campaign

https://www.cleveland.com/court-just...-campaign.html

A grand jury in Cleveland on Tuesday indicted right-wing political hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman with felony charges connected to a multi-state robocall campaign that prosecutors say was meant to scare voters in urban areas with large minority populations out of voting by mail in the Nov. 3 presidential election.

Wohl, 22, of Riverside, California, and Burman, 54, of Arlington, Virginia, are indicted on eight counts of telecommunications fraud and seven counts of bribery in connection with more than 8,000 calls that were placed to residents of Cleveland and East Cleveland.

Wohl and Burkman already face similar criminal charges in Michigan and a civil lawsuit in New York City connected to the same scheme. They have denied involvement.

The pair is also accused of hiring one of Wohl’s ex-girlfriends to publicly accuse Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who is more popular and seen as more trustworthy on information about the pandemic than Trump, of assaulting her in a hotel in 2014. The woman later told a reporter that the accusation was false and that Wohl and Burkman paid her to levy it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Biden was pretty good in Georgia just now. A bit yelly and squinty, but he was outside so it's understandable. Didn't trip over his words, didn't sound tired or (by his standards) old. And it was a solid speech in terms of the content and writing.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by troutman

Right-wing hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman hit with felony charges in Cleveland tied to multi-state voter robocall campaign

https://www.cleveland.com/court-just...-campaign.html

Just out of curiosity, can anyone point to similar agent provocateur's on the other side (left) of the political fence? I'm talking people who have broken the law and done extremely questionable things to do damage to politicians on the other side of the divide? This is pretty much a RW thing and is considered acceptable by that side. Whether it be Jacob Wohl, Jack Burkman, James O'Keefe, Andy Ngo, Jack Posobiec, etc. I struggle to find similar characters on the other side of the debate. We won't even talk about the White Nationalist set, or the religious nutbars, or the militia types, I'm just talking about politically active agents that will go out of their way to do damage to politicians or our electoral process just to make a point and maintain their position on the soap box. Is this unique?

[KootenayFlamesFan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1321166602465890307

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by New Era

Just out of curiosity, can anyone point to similar agent provocateur's on the other side (left) of the political fence? I'm talking people who have broken the law and done extremely questionable things to do damage to politicians on the other side of the divide? This is pretty much a RW thing and is considered acceptable by that side. Whether it be Jacob Wohl, Jack Burkman, James O'Keefe, Andy Ngo, Jack Posobiec, etc. I struggle to find similar characters on the other side of the debate. We won't even talk about the White Nationalist set, or the religious nutbars, or the militia types, I'm just talking about politically active agents that will go out of their way to do damage to politicians or our electoral process just to make a point and maintain their position on the soap box. Is this unique?

Something something Antifa. Something something Obamagate.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

https://twitter.com/user/status/1321166602465890307

This means one of two things.

1) They have internal polling that shows Florida is either won or lost. Unless they believe that all polls are wrong, and they have Florida won, they are abandoning ship and giving up on the state.

2) They believe they have the books cooked in Florida guaranteeing a victory. With the shenanigans going on the state that is indeed possible. with DeSantis in power I can easily see a systemic failure coming up that will give the state to Florida. I would not put it past DeSantis to appoint faithless electors to represent Florida in the Electoral College and guarantee the delivery of the state to Trump, regardless of the popular vote in Florida.

I would lean to the faithless elector scenario as this has been floated a number of times, and DeSantis is a big enough ######bag to follow this route. That would mean Trump can pour money into Pennsylvania and Ohio, his only path to victory and secure the EC votes that would not come from Republican controlled states who would follow through on the appointment of faithless electors.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by New Era

Just out of curiosity, can anyone point to similar agent provocateur's on the other side (left) of the political fence? I'm talking people who have broken the law and done extremely questionable things to do damage to politicians on the other side of the divide? This is pretty much a RW thing and is considered acceptable by that side. Whether it be Jacob Wohl, Jack Burkman, James O'Keefe, Andy Ngo, Jack Posobiec, etc. I struggle to find similar characters on the other side of the debate. We won't even talk about the White Nationalist set, or the religious nutbars, or the militia types, I'm just talking about politically active agents that will go out of their way to do damage to politicians or our electoral process just to make a point and maintain their position on the soap box. Is this unique?

Trying to find documented cases of electoral fraud committed by "liberals" . . . there must be some. Meanwhile:

Cries of voter fraud should be aimed at those committing it: Republicans

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/ju...at-those-comm/

The next time you hear a Republican scare-mongering Americans about voter fraud, remember the name Steve Watkins.

Watkins, a GOP congressman from Kansas, was charged this week with three counts of voter fraud, becoming the latest in a long line of Republicans proving that their party is the real threat to the integrity of American elections. Not undocumented immigrants, not some shadowy group of liberal conspiracists, not Democrats, but the GOP.

When Republicans like Watkins aren’t committing outright violations of voting laws, they’re engaging in wholesale gerrymandering and voter suppression.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by troutman

Right-wing hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman hit with felony charges in Cleveland tied to multi-state voter robocall campaign

https://www.cleveland.com/court-just...-campaign.html

How is Jacob Wohl only 22 years old?

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

How is Jacob Wohl only 22 years old?

You get in the news a lot when you've been banned from stock trading since you were 18.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

You get in the news a lot when you've been banned from stock trading since you were 18.

TFW you’re too ethically bankrupt to trade stocks.

[PsYcNeT]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1321051993629184001

[bizkitgto]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

https://twitter.com/user/status/1321166602465890307

Bold move, considering many believe Florida will decide the election... anymore remember Gore/Bush?