Honestly asking for your opinion (since you know intimately how US elections work) on the points the Trump campaign are raising here.
Thank you for asking. I appreciate the request and will do my best to explain the situation as the information available dictates.
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Is there any truth to notion that the Trump ground game is better than Biden.
Based on the information available, no, Trumps ground game is pretty well non-existent. The ground game is usually reliant on infrastructure and people getting out to convert the swing or uncommitted voter. There is a marked difference between what the Biden and Trump campaigns are doing. Biden is all about traditional electioneering tactics of knocking on doors and talking to the people. Trump is all about the big rallies and hoping the media will cover them. Different tactics, but one that doesn't really reach undecideds, as those undecideds are unlikely to go to a big rally, especially in the time of COVID. Trump just doesn't have the infrastructure, and it is showing.
The Trump campaign is trying to put on a brave face, but they have pulled ads in Iowa, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Once that happens campaigns normally kill off the ground game as well, closing up offices and re-assigning key people. It only makes sense to pull them in NH, because they are getting beat up pretty badly. Ohio and Iowa are both coin toss races right now, but traditional red states, so unless they have internal polling showing a certain win, this is really push the envelope. These two are must win states and they have closed up shop, relying strictly on low cost and low impact web buys.
Trump has also pulled way back on ads in Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. The only race in these states that is close is Nevada, and not as close as Georgia and Texas, where the races are way too close for comfort. The reality is that Trump is out of money and no one is coming in to give him any more. The benefactors are putting money into races that look winnable or have strategic purpose. So Trump's ability to maintain a ground game is all but evaporated and they are really reliant on the web buys or using digital means to encourage his supporters to go have small "flag waving" rallies, which have been popular here in AZ.
One thing that is missing in AZ from the last election is the prevalence of yard signs, which is a great indicator of a ground game presence. Our area was flooded with Trump signs in 2016, and I would say we are at 30-40% of what they were. The number of Biden/Harris signs is almost equal, and we're in a very "Trumpy" area. So his ground game hasn't been very effective. Having said that, I'm getting pounded by web ads and flyers. Every second page I go to has a Trump or McSally (senate) add, and every day I get 8-10 pieces of election propaganda, so they (Trump and the Republicans) are pouring the money into the directed marketing.
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Is Trump just flooding the zone with these types of stories to get his base out or is there something to the 'hard to reach voter' who isn't represented in the polls?
The strategy seems to be throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes of something sticking. Their "rally" campaigning does not convert hard to reach votes. They increase the enthusiasm of the already true believers, so the investment of this much time and energy is not about converting undecideds, its about the dear leader's ego and generating enthusiasm within the cult. In this current environment, people are not going to rallies unless they are already part of that social group.
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Please don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to pump Trump at all but I read this and wonder what he is up to
He's using the inly script he has. It worked last time, so he's trying it again. Problem is, this is a different time and the attacks don't work against Biden. Trump is playing the greatest hits and hoping people don't recognize that his best days are behind him and the songs don't sound like they did on the album.
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On another polling note YouGov has Biden up by 12 nationally (54-42), a result that to me is not consistent with a low single digit lead in the battlegrounds like Pennsylvania. YouGov also has Biden up 8 in PA, which almost tracks (I wouldn’t expect Pennsylvania to be 4% more Republican than the country but maybe 2 or 3 points, so it’s likely “close enough”).
Meanwhile Insider Advantage (a GOP leaning pollster) has Trump up 2 in Pennsylvania, which has raised some eyebrows as the polling “consensus” has Biden ahead by around 5 or 6.
And Reuters\Ipsos just released a poll with Biden +5 (50-45) in Pennsylvania, not materially different from their last poll at +4.
I guess what I’m saying is... we have 3 pictures of the race in Pennsylvania, which is undoubtedly the most important state in terms of the electoral college (Trump can’t win without it and Biden is worse than a coin flip to win if he doesn’t carry it). So is Biden ahead by low single digits such that he is a normal polling error from losing? Is he ahead by 8 such that he is basically guaranteed to carry the state and with it the White House? Or is he slightly behind/statistically tied in a state where a close count may result in legal challenges that find their way all the way to the US Supreme Court?
I think only one of these pictures can be right. I guess you toss them in the average but it seems to me someone will be embarrassed on November 4th. We just don’t know who.
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I wonder how much potential there is for an organized cheating movement? All the talk of cheating on mail in ballots from Trump and his supporters means they could be organizing it on the belief the other side is doing it. The last minute registrations by Republicans could be viewed as suspicious. I'm guessing you could probably organize a cheating campaign to acquire non-active voters and register them.
I wonder how much potential there is for an organized cheating movement? All the talk of cheating on mail in ballots from Trump and his supporters means they could be organizing it on the belief the other side is doing it. The last minute registrations by Republicans could be viewed as suspicious. I'm guessing you could probably organize a cheating campaign to acquire non-active voters and register them.
This is what concerned me. Is Trump rounding up traditional non voters (those that look like his base) and getting a big enough 'new' slice that confounds pollsters? Are they just doing this in select states?
To Iowa Fan's point - why aren't they voting early.
The concern is the GOP and what they have up their sleeves combined with the surprise of 2016.
Last edited by Jeff Lebowski; 10-26-2020 at 04:49 PM.
Pence’s inner circle is infected with Covid but continuing to campaign.
Trump’s chief of staff says they’ve given up controlling the pandemic.
Meanwhile, El Paso has to issue a stay at home order as the hospitals are full. Utah hospitals announcing they will have to ration care In 1-2 weeks because of quickly filling hospitals. Ration care means taking the steps to prioritize care (those not improving despite treatment moved out to make room for those who might respond. Two equal patients? Young gets preference over old. This is what Italy had to do). That sequence of events certainly won’t win Trump votes this week.
Trump needs PA...and he tells PA that if they need help he won’t give it because the governor didn’t help his campaign (Tom Wolf is a Democrat).
Some absolute master strokes in campaign strategy as they come down the home stretch.
It's going to be devastating between November and January when bitter lame duck Trump sites there, refusing to do anything, claiming COVID is "Biden's problem now" while Americans suffer and die as this crisis ramps up to horrible levels.
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Jeff Sachs is the epitome of the 'expert' and expertise that the world used to look to the USA for. 1 min mark for the key point
I like the total non-reaction from the interviewer. Any other time in television history, an expert calling the president an idiot in an interview would have the interviewer quickly interjecting or at least visibly reacting. This woman's just 'yeah, he's making a good point, I'll let him finish.'
It's going to be devastating between November and January when bitter lame duck Trump sites there, refusing to do anything, claiming COVID is "Biden's problem now" while Americans suffer and die as this crisis ramps up to horrible levels.
There's some interesting ways that it could go. If Trump is just burning everything down on his way out, and the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, they could set themselves up to re-impeach over his actions in early January (new congress is sworn in Jan 3rd). The threshold for removal from office is still really high, but there might be a handful of Republicans who want to distance themselves from Trump at that point and see turfing him as an immediate action.
I'm not sure how business carries over between the two terms? Could the house write up articles of impeachment in December, and then deliver them to the Senate once the new congress sits? Or does the changeover essentially wipe the slate clean?
At the very least, the threat of re-impeachment might be enough to slow Trump down a little.
It's going to be devastating between November and January when bitter lame duck Trump sites there, refusing to do anything, claiming COVID is "Biden's problem now" while Americans suffer and die as this crisis ramps up to horrible levels.
That’s not much different than the last several months.
The big difference and the frightening worry is the damage that a humiliated Trump may try to inflict on his country.
Honestly asking for your opinion (since you know intimately how US elections work) on the points the Trump campaign are raising here.
Is there any truth to notion that the Trump ground game is better than Biden. Is Trump just flooding the zone with these types of stories to get his base out or is there something to the 'hard to reach voter' who isn't represented in the polls?
Please don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to pump Trump at all but I read this and wonder what he is up to
Judging by my email inbox the Trump campaign thinks
a) I'm an american
b) I'm right wing
c) I have spare money knocking around to hand out to a 'billionaire' who said he'd fund his own campaign
d) That I have already given him either money or bought some of his trailer park MAGA decorations like the limited edition red plastic cups with MAGA printed on them (only 5 bucks each)
I wouldn't put to much faith on their organizations data gathering at this point
I guess what I’m saying is... we have 3 pictures of the race in Pennsylvania, which is undoubtedly the most important state in terms of the electoral college (Trump can’t win without it and Biden is worse than a coin flip to win if he doesn’t carry it). So is Biden ahead by low single digits such that he is a normal polling error from losing? Is he ahead by 8 such that he is basically guaranteed to carry the state and with it the White House? Or is he slightly behind/statistically tied in a state where a close count may result in legal challenges that find their way all the way to the US Supreme Court?
I think only one of these pictures can be right. I guess you toss them in the average but it seems to me someone will be embarrassed on November 4th. We just don’t know who.
1) I love your analysis and appreciate it. It's helpful in a time when I'm just running at a constant low hum of anxiety.
2) Living in probably the most important state for this election is exhausting and infuriating. So many ads all the time. I will note a few things, however anecdotal.
First off, while there are still some very proud Trump voters who come into my salon, they aren't nearly as loud as they were 4 years ago. The people who hate him are much more emboldened to speak up now, which has been nice to see. I'm curious how old white religious women vote, because I keep hearing a lot of handwringing from them about what a bully he is and what horrible things he says. The little old ladies seem to lean, at least somewhat, toward Biden from what I've seen. And the little old white ladies always vote.
This weekend I had to take a drive up north of the city, to a pretty comfortable 2016 Trump district. Just at a glance as I drove through, there were a surprising number of Biden signs. I don't think he'll win those counties, but if counties that Trump won at 70-80% drop to 55-60%...that would likely be enough to sway PA back to blue.
Mostly I'm just terrified knowing some of the idiots we're counting on to decide something this big for the entire country.
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Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski
This is what concerned me. Is Trump rounding up traditional non voters (those that look like his base) and getting a big enough 'new' slice that confounds pollsters? Are they just doing this in select states?
To Iowa Fan's point - why aren't they voting early.
The concern is the GOP and what they have up their sleeves combined with the surprise of 2016.
I can't see Trump gaining voters from where his number was in 2016. The people who voted for him as a joke aren't going to do the same. There are plenty who voted for him because they didn't want a "politician" but they haven't found any difference in a Trump presidency, so they're disillusioned yet again and are unlikely to vote this time around.
I don't think too many people who didn't vote in 2016, or who voted for another candidate, are going to change over to vote for Trump. I think 2016 was his threshold.
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Trump has gained followers in certain counter-cultures. It makes me sad to see so many punk rock fans who support him because they think he's for "freedom" and Biden is "elite". Democrats need to make some serious changes to get that part of their base back.
The dude literally has a solid gold toilet. And Biden, the guy who rode the train to work for 20 years, is "elite"?
People are idiots.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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That’s not much different than the last several months.
The big difference and the frightening worry is the damage that a humiliated Trump may try to inflict on his country.
He needs the Republican party to do anything. The second he loses the distancing operation begins. "Trump who?" Or they'll highlight all the times they held him in check for the good of the country. Trump won't have the political clout to do anything anymore.
Trump has gained followers in certain counter-cultures. It makes me sad to see so many punk rock fans who support him because they think he's for "freedom" and Biden is "elite".
It's pretty fair to say that probably 95% of musicians, especially punk rockers, usually lean left politically. If you're talking about far right neo-Nazi bands, then sure, of course they're gonna support Trump. But the punk community in general? I have a hard time believing that they'd be voting Republican. If anything, hardcore punk rockers would likely vote 3rd party or not at all.
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It's pretty fair to say that probably 95% of musicians, especially punk rockers, usually lean left politically. If you're talking about far right neo-Nazi bands, then sure, of course they're gonna support Trump. But the punk community in general? I have a hard time believing that they'd be voting Republican. If anything, hardcore punk rockers would likely vote 3rd party or not at all.
They definitely tend to lean left, as all my friends in that scene do. But there are more and more punks on forums spouting pro-Trump rhetoric, and it's fans of "mainstream" bands, not the Nazi stuff.
Jon Lyden (Johnny Rotton of the Sex Pistols) was photographed wearing a MAGA shirt and has said he'll vote for him. Duane Peters of U.S. Bombs is making skateboard decks with Trump on it. Glenn Danzig supported the travel ban.
