Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[dino7c]

all the environmentalists will just take their 5 year old cars to the auto wreckers and buy a new one

[Street Pharmacist]

There's no reason to think that batteries won't last the life of a car. In fact, it's looking more and more like the batteries will outlive the usefulness of the car.

https://www.wired.com/story/what-hap...lasts-the-car/

There's already plans for recycling the batteries as they will be extremely valuable due to their contents. The trouble is, there are no batteries yet to recycle. Volkswagen plans to buy back and recycle their own, Redwood minerals has plans to develop a supply chain of used batteries.

I get that the batteries are warrantied for 100,000 miles, but we don't get replacement engines after the warranty ends either, so I'm not sure why that's relevant.

[Street Pharmacist]

A few really good tweets on EV's in China showing how much improvement in technology there's been, along with some crazy growth in China. That growth will be seen here too.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1614669588847001600

The range is increasing while costs are going down. The technology has lots of runway to improve, yet the cost trajectory remains the same

https://twitter.com/user/status/1564656819036987392

https://twitter.com/user/status/1564656839832240129

China is still a developing car market, so EV sales are incremental, not necessarily replacing ICE. Having said that, it's still a likely foreshadow of what we'll see elsewhere. Removal or lessening of generous inventives isn't really slowing this transition down.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1599850132484550656

BYD is rapidly mopping the floor with Tesla. Technology is almost as good and improving, costs are lower and quality is probably close too. This company came out of nowhere and sold more EVs (if you include plug ins) than Tesla. By next year, BYD will have sold more than Tesla in pure EVs.

They have plans of international expansion. OEMs are rightly concerned

[zamler]

Originally Posted by dino7c

all the environmentalists will just take their 5 year old cars to the auto wreckers and buy a new one

Are you one of those people that rages and walks around trying to remove charging cables?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

There's no reason to think that batteries won't last the life of a car. In fact, it's looking more and more like the batteries will outlive the usefulness of the car.

https://www.wired.com/story/what-hap...lasts-the-car/

There's already plans for recycling the batteries as they will be extremely valuable due to their contents. The trouble is, there are no batteries yet to recycle. Volkswagen plans to buy back and recycle their own, Redwood minerals has plans to develop a supply chain of used batteries.

I get that the batteries are warrantied for 100,000 miles, but we don't get replacement engines after the warranty ends either, so I'm not sure why that's relevant.

That’s a bit of false equivalency, as a whole engine replacement is pretty rare with regular upkeep, after 100,000 miles. Would you be able to do anything over the course of EV ownership to ensure that you’d never have to replace the whole battery?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Wormius

That’s a bit of false equivalency, as a whole engine replacement is pretty rare with regular upkeep, after 100,000 miles. Would you be able to do anything over the course of EV ownership to ensure that you’d never have to replace the whole battery?

Whole battery replacement is very equivalent. Outside of the Nissan Leaf, it's not something that happens in EVs either. Outside of buying an EV with a faulty battery (would be covered by warranty), you'll get the same life out of a battery as an engine (probably more). I don't see how that's a false equivalence. If you regularly maintain your engine, you might get 250km out of it. With properly maintained battery (not filling to 100% all the time, not fast charging too often) it'll probably last longer

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dino7c

all the environmentalists will just take their 5 year old cars to the auto wreckers and buy a new one

Why would anyone, nevermind an environmentalist, do this? The car would still be fine...

[Fuzz]

Anyone who follows EV news at all shouldn't be at all surprised as to what is happening in China. I do find these types of prognostications a bit silly.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1564656874791833610

As if no other manufacturers are on the task. It's the same stuff you hear from Tesla boosters, as if the current situation is static. BYD is not going to take over the world. Nations will protect their auto industries long before that happens. And of course a Chinese company is going to take over from foreign ones, it's a pretty standard pattern in China, and their costs are so much lower, due to lack of environmental and labour regulations, plus massive state support. I almost find it quaint Telsa thought they stood much of a chance there.

[zamler]

BYD has razor thing margins (and at times goes into negative) Tesla is 20%+ at any given time, better in China.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

BYD has razor thing margins (and at times goes into negative) Tesla is 20%+ at any given time, better in China.

Before the recent price cuts. Obviously they will be lower now. But China doesn't care about margins. BYD can survive, and will. And they'll probably outsell Tesla this year. Ford will outsell Tesla on trucks and delivery vans. Hell, Chevy probably will too. And Rivian. The point is Tesla no longer has most of the market to themselves, and are going to have to figure out how to survive in the new landscape.

[zamler]

Tesla was over 20% before price increases, which have come back to about where they were. Of all the things Tesla has to worry about money is not one of them they are netting 3+ billion per quarter this is before Berlin and Texas ramp.

Sitting on $25 billion in cash means they could sell at zero profit for years and still build new factories.

[Fuzz]

Ok, right, I forgot you were one of these Tesla people.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Whole battery replacement is very equivalent. Outside of the Nissan Leaf, it's not something that happens in EVs either. Outside of buying an EV with a faulty battery (would be covered by warranty), you'll get the same life out of a battery as an engine (probably more). I don't see how that's a false equivalence. If you regularly maintain your engine, you might get 250km out of it. With properly maintained battery (not filling to 100% all the time, not fast charging too often) it'll probably last longer

Correct me as I'm probably wrong, but in NA we've essentially had 3 examples that have existed in any significant numbers for a full decade (Leaf/Volt/Teslas)...and you're saying only 1/3 has had issues?

We've got 5 decades of experience with mass production ICE vehicles and enough data to have a general understanding of failure risk, and there are usually visible/audible indicators of problems and opportunity to correct/mitigate. OTOH we've got ~2 decades of experience with mass production of rechargeable batteries in consumer electronics, and most people have had several experiences with battery failure ringing the death knell for an otherwise useful device. I think you've previously explained good reasons before why BEVs should be different and that's fair enough, but it's also fair for consumers to be wary.

If OEMs shared your confidence, why wouldn't they offer lifetime warranties? Or even prorated warranty extensions beyond whatever point?

I don't doubt that BEV is going to be a much reliable option in the long run, but at this stage its completely reasonable to be concerned with this existential threat.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Correct me as I'm probably wrong, but in NA we've essentially had 3 examples that have existed in any significant numbers for a full decade (Leaf/Volt/Teslas)...and you're saying only 1/3 has had issues?

Yup. Firstly, there's very few of these older electric vehicles sold. Volt batteries were notoriouly durable. In fact Mary Barra (CEO of GM) said they never once replaced a battery due to degradation. There's plenty of evidence out there about the batteries in Tesla's lasting longer than combustion engines. Yes, you can find one off stories of Tesla's needing batteries to be replaced but it's pretty rare. Nissan Leaf has no thermal battery management and almost no other battery management, so the batteries suck.

We've got 5 decades of experience with mass production ICE vehicles and enough data to have a general understanding of failure risk, and there are usually visible/audible indicators of problems and opportunity to correct/mitigate. OTOH we've got ~2 decades of experience with mass production of rechargeable batteries in consumer electronics, and most people have had several experiences with battery failure ringing the death knell for an otherwise useful device. I think you've previously explained good reasons before why BEVs should be different and that's fair enough, but it's also fair for consumers to be wary.

People can be as wary as they want, that's fine. That doesn't change the fact we've got more than enough data out there to show it's not an issue. The battery in your phone is not only different than the one in a car, there's no battery life management being done either to extend its life.

If OEMs shared your confidence, why wouldn't they offer lifetime warranties? Or even prorated warranty extensions beyond whatever point?



I don't doubt that BEV is going to be a much reliable option in the long run, but at this stage its completely reasonable to be concerned with this existential threat.

Everyone has every right to be concerned. But that doesn't change the facts on the ground.
Why don't OEMs offer lifetime warranties for an engine, a transmission, etc? If they offer a 3 year 100,000 km warranty on a vehicle's drivetrain, do they expect it to fail after 100,000km? Of course not.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by zamler

Are you one of those people that rages and walks around trying to remove charging cables?

no, I find it wasteful how cars are basically disposable these days...its not an EV thing to be fair there just seems to be more hypocrites with EVs. Anecdotal from my own personal experiences.

I think EV technology is great, people should keep their vehicles longer and they should be built to last longer IMO

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

For those of you that have an EV.
Do you have a home charger, and if so, any models you can recommend to go with, or stay away from?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by dino7c

no, I find it wasteful how cars are basically disposable these days...its not an EV thing to be fair there just seems to be more hypocrites with EVs. Anecdotal from my own personal experiences.

I think EV technology is great, people should keep their vehicles longer and they should be built to last longer IMO

You are not basing that on anything factual. Cars last an average of about 12 years now, and that number has steadily grown since it was about half of that in the 70s. EVs are expected to bring that average lifespan up.

[dino7c]

Well let's see...who is driving a 12 year old EV? Time will tell. We can't just have everyone buying a new car every couple years though, it's not sustainable.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well let's see...who is driving a 12 year old EV? Time will tell. We can't just have everyone buying a new car every couple years though, it's not sustainable.

11 year old Model S's still go for $25-30k US, so there does seem like there will be demand for 12 year old EVs.

Cars are staying on the road longer. If you want to judge your friends and neighbors for replacing their cars too often, that's fine. In terms of environmental concerns, as long as the car is on the road for 12+ years, it doesn't really matter if it is the original owner, or a 2nd or 3rd owner.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

For those of you that have an EV.
Do you have a home charger, and if so, any models you can recommend to go with, or stay away from?

Yes, and I couldn't imagine having an EV without it. Being able to charge overnight, and have it fully charged in the morning, is just so convenient. Had to use a public charger on the weekend in Canmore, for the first time, and it was really annoying - like having to go to a gas station, but it taking a lot longer. I hope I don't have to do that too often.

As for the make, mine came with the vehicle, so I have nothing to add there. But you absolutely want one, if you can. And also, you definitely want a NEMO 14/50 (240 amp) plug, for higher speed charging, if possible.