Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 3

[edslunch]

Kylington. AHL all-star this year, NHL regular next year. Book it

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Perhaps, but there's still reason to be skeptical about a 22 year old goalie with seven games of AHL experience. That just isn't much of a resume. He put up above average numbers behind a detail-oriented team in college, yes, but they weren't the kind of dominant numbers that Hellebuyck, Demko, and Ryan Miller put up.

Is that true?

Jon Gillies
Freshman - 18 - GAA 2.08 - SP 0.931
Sophmore - 19 - GAA 2.16 - SP 0.931
Junior - 20 - GAA 2.01 - SP 0.930

Thatcher Demko
Freshman - 18 - GAA 2.24 - SP - 0.919
Sophmore - 19 - GAA 2.19 - SP - 0.925
Junior - 20 - GAA 1.88 - SP - 0.935

Connor Hellebuyck
Freshman - 19 - GAA - 1.37 - SP - 0.925
Sophmore - 20 - GAA - 1.79 - SP - 0.941

Gillies and Demko are very comparable. The edge goes to Gilies in years One and Two and Demko in year three. Numbers aren't that far off in the Junior year either.

Hellebuyk's numbers are staggering but he was a year older in his freshman year than the other two. Connor's back up in his 2nd year also put up steller numbers too. Doug Carr put up a GAA of 1.80 and SP of 0.936, so it's slightly disingenuous to suggest Gilies numbers are due to a "detail-oriented" team and Hellebuyk's aren't.

As for not dominating like the other two, during their two over lapping seasons, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 both Gillies and Hellebuyk were consistently at the top of GAA and SP, I'll let you look for yourself. Both were dominating goalies at the College level.

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015 Gillies vs Demko

To suggest Gillies put up average numbers is ridiculous. He was a dominating College goalie from the day skated onto the ice to the day he skated off as champion.

Eer on the side of caution all you want, that's the smart thing to do, especially with goalies, but let's not re-write history here.

[sun]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

3rd time voting Hickey.
I expect I might need to vote for him at least 3 more times.

Ditto.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Is that true?

Jon Gillies
Freshman - 18 - GAA 2.08 - SP 0.931
Sophmore - 19 - GAA 2.16 - SP 0.931
Junior - 20 - GAA 2.01 - SP 0.930

Thatcher Demko
Freshman - 18 - GAA 2.24 - SP - 0.919
Sophmore - 19 - GAA 2.19 - SP - 0.925
Junior - 20 - GAA 1.88 - SP - 0.935

Um, you're a full eleven months off. Demko's freshman season, he was 17 and turned 18 in December. Gillies' freshman season, he was 18 and turned 19 in January. Gillies' freshman season should be compared to Demko's sophomore season, and Gillies' sophomore season should be compared to Demko's Junior season going by age / post-draft years.

Connor Hellebuyck
Freshman - 19 - GAA - 1.37 - SP - 0.925
Sophmore - 20 - GAA - 1.79 - SP - 0.941

Hellebuyk's numbers are staggering but he was a year older in his freshman year than the other two.

Hold on a minute. Hellebuyck put up a .952 not a .925 in his freshman year.

Second, Hellebuyck was 19 for his entire freshman season, but Gillies turned 19 halfway into his freshman season as well. It's disingenuous to say they were a completely different age as both finished their freshman seasons as nineteen year olds. Gillies also never approached those numbers even as a 21-year-old Junior.

Connor's back up in his 2nd year also put up steller numbers too. Doug Carr put up a GAA of 1.80 and SP of 0.936, so it's slightly disingenuous to suggest Gilies numbers are due to a "detail-oriented" team and Hellebuyk's aren't.

Never said Hellebuycks are not "due" to a detail oriented team. They are however a full percentage point ahead of Gillies which is not a small gap. However your comment about Doug Carr throwing up a .936 is a good reason why I'm simply not putting a lot of stock into NCAA stats. Pro stats are a lot more telling, and Gillies has seven pro games to his resume.

To suggest Gillies put up average numbers is ridiculous.

I did not suggest that. In fact I said outright his numbers are above average in the very post you quoted. It seems your strange little personal vendetta with me has you failing to even read my posts correctly.

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

As for not dominating like the other two, during their two over lapping seasons, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 both Gillies and Hellebuyk were consistently at the top of GAA and SP, I'll let you look for yourself. Both were dominating goalies at the College level.

2012-13, Hellebuyck was 1st in GAA and 1st in SV% while Gillies was 9th in SV% and 15th in GAA

http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/d...men/2012-2013/

2013-14, Hellebuyck was 1st in GAA and 1st in SV% while Gillies was 4th in SV% and 12th in GAA. Demko's equivalent season (2015-16) he was 4th in SV% and 7th in GAA.

http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/d...men/2013-2014/

There's a gap there between Hellebuyck and the other two. It's a gap between a bonafide "clear best goalie in league" and a "really good goalie relative to league". And perhaps Demko is closer to Gillies than he is to Miller or Hellebuyck, but Demko also had an elite WJC where Gillies' WJC was forgettable.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Slight dyslexia on the 0.952 there, honest mistake.

[burnitdown]

Kylington for me. If a trade broke later today and we gave up a prospect in the deal, I'd be more upset if he was part of a package compared to others.

[Rick M.]

Kylington for me. The question when we drafted him was: is he coachable? The answer: hell yes.

[Strange Brew]

Voted Gillies but again with great reluctance. Basically view is unchanged from last year. Pretty shocked Jankowski went so high and again, not judging anyone who voted for him. Would just argue many of our D prospects are better. 4 years later I wonder if Janko's draft position helps him in his poll? Certainly creates most of the discussion about him.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Slight dyslexia on the 0.952 there, honest mistake.

Even then he faced more than 350 fewer shots than Gillies too. Umass-Lowell was also significantly better that season with a much older defensive corps.

[edslunch]

I think we're splitting hairs with these goalie stats - there are too many variables. Suffice it to say Gillies was among the top goalies at his age, won a national championship, showed well in a brief AHL cameo and has all the physical attributes you look for in a goalie. Beyond that, we don't know how good he really is. Give him a year in the AHL then we can place him on this list properly

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I think we're splitting hairs with these goalie stats - there are too many variables.

There are.

Suffice it to say Gillies was among the top goalies at his age, won a national championship, showed well in a brief AHL cameo and has all the physical attributes you look for in a goalie.

Of course, one might argue that Parsons too qualifies most of those as well. Well, other than being super-sized. They're just not a sufficient collection of attributes to make any definitive claims.

Beyond that, we don't know how good he really is.

Agreed. I am simply arguing that declaring him a peer of guys like Matt Murray and Connor Hellebuyck, which ricardodw did, makes no sense as those guys have greater resumes as professionals.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

There are.



Of course, one might argue that Parsons too qualifies most of those as well. Well, other than being super-sized. They're just not a sufficient collection of attributes to make any definitive claims.



Agreed. I am simply arguing that declaring him a peer of guys like Matt Murray and Connor Hellebuyck, which ricardodw did, makes no sense as those guys have greater resumes as professionals.

This wasn't directed specifically at you, the stats argument can go either way. I agree with your last paragraph - until he puts up solid pro stats he shouldn't be measured against those who have.

[ComixZone]

Went with Gillies. As a guy who projects to be a franchise goalie if things go well health/development-wise, that's a foundational piece.

After Gillies...I'd say Shinkaruk will be my #4.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...Maybe his size makes him a better chance to play in the NHL than some of the players out scoring him but how does he project to a top roster player?

The thing for me is how good he looked playing in Stockton at the end of last year. His skating, offensive instincts and size were all on full display, and I think he actually looked a lot better there than he did in Providence. Jankowski in the AHL really looked like an emerging, high impact forward—NCAA scoring stats be damned.

[TheIronMaiden]

These polls are really interesting. You can learn a lot from the results:
What fans expect from individual prospects,
how good fans hope a prospect will turn out,
How good these players might actually be.

Also by reading through people's reasoning you can get a good understand of a players abilities and limitations. good stuff!!

[GreenLantern2814]

Gillies no question.

I predict Hickey then Kylington in the next two rounds.

[Sylvanfan]

I think Mangiapane is the guy who could jump a lot next year. If he shows he can play and produce at the pro level it will raise his stock big time.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by frodo_t_baggins

It's interesting how poirier is going to drop like a stone from #2 after an underwhelming season, whereas gillies is going to remain unchanged at #3 after missing pretty much an entire season. I wonder if poirier had missed last season would he be still be voted one of our top 5 prospects.

I think for sure he would still be top 5. Having a bad year is a tangible result that will affect his placing. Missing the whole year due to injury is almost like a do-over it seems.

That's not how I am voting, as I see a year missed by injury as a huge setback, but clearly based on results mine is a minority opinion.

[Vulcan]

The thing for me is how good he looked playing in Stockton at the end of last year. His skating, offensive instincts and size were all on full display, and I think he actually looked a lot better there than he did in Providence. Jankowski in the AHL really looked like an emerging, high impact forward—NCAA scoring stats be damned. __________________

The quote function doesn't seem to be working properly for me right now.
Early results like these are often fueled by adrenaline and not a true yardstick.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think Mangiapane is the guy who could jump a lot next year. If he shows he can play and produce at the pro level it will raise his stock big time.

I'm confident he'll make the top 10 this year.