[GDT] 2020 WC Play-In Round: Calgary Flames (8) vs. Winnipeg Jets (9) Flames 2-1

[Vinny01]

If Valimaki playing means he needs to be protected in the expansion draft then it is an easy no considering the depth the team has on the blueline. Sneaking Vali through the Seattle expansion basically allows the Flames to keep Gio or Kylington in the scenario he has a break out next season.

[Erick Estrada]

Interesting that Dom Luszcyszyn's projection in The Athletic for the Play-In round gives the Flames the 2nd best odds of advancing to the playoffs in the West at 58.8% (Nashville at 59.5%). I would think that a Flames vs Jets series would be one of the more evenly matched series of the Play-In's.

[SuperMatt18]

Jets have the better goalie, and in a 5 game playoff that is so important.

IMO that's the equalizer.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Interesting that Dom Luszcyszyn's projection in The Athletic for the Play-In round gives the Flames the 2nd best odds of advancing to the playoffs in the West at 58.8% (Nashville at 59.5%). I would think that a Flames vs Jets series would be one of the more evenly matched series of the Play-In's.

sports illustrated Vegas odds:

(9) Winnipeg Jets -110

(8) Calgary Flames -110 — Winner plays No. 1 seed

Vegas Whispers: Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck was one of the game’s elite netminders prior to the shutdown. However, Flames likely playoff starter, Cam Talbot, will be up to the task. Give me the Flames here to advance.

Jaime Eisner: *Shrugs* These teams are so incredibly close and Vegas knows this. The key for the Jets is, was and will be goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. He might win the Vezina this year and he’s the big advantage over Calgary. Winnipeg has the advantage at forward and in net while the Flames have the superior blue line. I’ll take the Jets, but I won’t be wagering on this series.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Interesting that Dom Luszcyszyn's projection in The Athletic for the Play-In round gives the Flames the 2nd best odds of advancing to the playoffs in the West at 58.8% (Nashville at 59.5%). I would think that a Flames vs Jets series would be one of the more evenly matched series of the Play-In's.

Im curious how anyone, anywhere, could have any sort of idea who will do what when we are heading into a situation that has literally never ever happened before.

Even during normal times, players can still skate after a few weeks off during the summer to heal up.

No one anywhere (maybe Swedes?) has been able to skate regularly for 2 1/2 months now. It seems making predictions based on anything but what was happening before everything stopped is nothing more than a fools errand.

Everyone is healthy now other than those that were never coming back this season, no one will have any sort of home ice advantage, some players will respond better than others to being quarantined but no one really knows who that is until it happens...etc.

Just WAY to many variables and unknowns for anyone to understand what is likely to happen.

[ricardodw]

here https://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/


The Flames are huge relative favorites against the Jets Flames 32-1 odds of winning SC the Jets 55-1 odds of winning SC.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Johnny has shown the ability to raise his game in tournament play. His first year in the NCAA he was the Beanpot MVP and tossed his game throughout the college tournament. World juniors he scored a hat trick on team Canada in a huge game and lead the US in scoring. The World Cup he was one of the top 3 forwards on the exciting North America squad. He also scored that clutch goal against the Ducks in round 2 in 2015 with just seconds left.

I do think the fact Johnny has never been able to dominate a 7 game series and be a couple sister playoff performer lead to the questions he can’t step up when the games matter but he has shown in the past he can do it. He needs to figure out a way to be a factor for 4-7 consecutive games against the same team

This may be an unpopular addition to this list because I don't think he actually scored but if I recall correctly he absolutely dominated in Game 5 against the Avalanche too. Puck on a string, high danger chances for him and his line mates a couple breakaways and couple posts.

Obviously the point is to actually capitalize but make microscopic changes to a few of those chances and all of a sudden its a 4-point night and probably a game six to follow.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Jets have the better goalie, and in a 5 game playoff that is so important.

IMO that's the equalizer.

Normally I'd agree with you here, but the goalies are all gonna be ice cold coming into this thing. By the time they actually start playing games (if it even happens), these guys will have been off for 3-4 months. Jets may have had the better goalie during the regular season, but at this point it's anyone's game IMO.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Practice?



Practice?

Starting net goes to Rittich in game 1 no matter what in my eyes. Dude has a contract for next season and is a developing goalie - you start with him in my eyes.

...not saying Talbot won't take over at some point, but Rittich is where we start I'd say.

I disagree. next years contract doesn't matter. but by that logic Talbot would have way more to prove.

Plus Talbot has been the better goalie for most of the season including the most recent part of it. He's played in the playoffs before and with a 5 game series you don't really have the luxury of hoping Rittich performs.

I think they go with the best goalie from their mini camp or whatever and I would put money on it being Talbot.

That being said, with a likely condensed schedule I think both goalies will have to be used for the Flames, or any team, to go far. But that also makes me nervous about Rittich being in the starter's role because imo he doesn't handle fatigue well at all.

Every season he starts hot and then falls off a cliff when they play him too much. IMO he is at his best playing no more than two or three games in a row and then having a couple game break in between so might as well keep him as the back up because we know he plays well in that role.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by BigErnSalute_16

I disagree. next years contract doesn't matter. but by that logic Talbot would have way more to prove.

Plus Talbot has been the better goalie for most of the season including the most recent part of it. He's played in the playoffs before and with a 5 game series you don't really have the luxury of hoping Rittich performs.

I think they go with the best goalie from their mini camp or whatever and I would put money on it being Talbot.

That being said, with a likely condensed schedule I think both goalies will have to be used for the Flames, or any team, to go far. But that also makes me nervous about Rittich being in the starter's role because imo he doesn't handle fatigue well at all.

Every season he starts hot and then falls off a cliff when they play him too much. IMO he is at his best playing no more than two or three games in a row and then having a couple game break in between so might as well keep him as the back up because we know he plays well in that role.

I'm going to preface my comment by saying that I'm on the start Cam Talbot side of the goalie discussion.

By the the time they're playing Hockey again it'll roughly be a full off season regardless so starting Rittich may be the best option since he is good out of the gates. So that is a big point for Rittich starting.

Now the conversation goes to who starts further in and can the coach read the situation properly to make that change in good time.

[Vinny01]

Rittich seems to be at his best when he is fresh and apparently he was hanged up again this year but recovered now. I think he is the clear starter for game 1.

He is also the guy the organization is more invested in and if he falters in these playoffs there appear to be numerous options this summer for the Flames to shift directions in net yet again if they so choose

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Rittich seems to be at his best when he is fresh and apparently he was hanged up again this year but recovered now. I think he is the clear starter for game 1.

He is also the guy the organization is more invested in and if he falters in these playoffs there appear to be numerous options this summer for the Flames to shift directions in net yet again if they so choose

I'm with you. For some reason, I'm oddly confident that Rittich will start on a crazy hotstreak that propels the Flames deep into the playoffs.

[3rd liner]

[QUOTE=djsFlames;7468357]I'll take Green Day and FOB over top 40s pop hits any dang day.

Totally agree- top 40 pop= NG. I don't want to hear Taylor Swift when I am watching a hockey game (or whomever is top 40 now- yes I am out of touch with what the kids are listening to). At least play something with some energy.


I'd vote for whomever programs Anaheim's music (at least whomever did 2-3 years ago). Old school Metallica when the rough stuff starts... and straight up energetic hard rock and metal- my cup of tea anyway. The music was the only good thing happening at the Honda Centre while the flames were cursed.

[ricardodw]

The Jets and Flames only played in the outdoor game so that does not provide a significant track record

The Jets dominated the Pacific division 13-6-0 (as did St.L 14-4-4, Colorado 11-6-2, Dallas 10-3-3 and Minnesota 14-7-2)

Hellebuyck is a Vezina contender because of his play against the PAC

12-5-0 1.94 .943

The Flames were one of the worst teams in the league against the the central

7-8-4 .. Minnesota, Chicago and Arizona being the only other of 23 teams still playing having a winning % of less than 50

Against the Central

Rittich 5-4-3 3.54 .891
Talbot 2-4-1 2.58 .923

Calgary 10-4-1 dominated the ATL along with Colorado (12-1-2)


It is not quite what it was a couple of years ago but the Central plays a bigger more of a playoff style of game than the PAC.

[MrMike]

Talbot allows us to hang in games, Rittich can win us games. If Rittich has a bad first game I go to Talbot and decide game by game.

[3rd liner]

The flames seem to be notoriously slow starters after a break, so that is definitely not to our advantage. Can't comment on how WPG's starts after a season. I just can't recall a season in recent memory where the flames have come out of the gate flying.

With how frustrating some of our top guys were playing this season, I guess a restart can't hurt.
It is such an unusual situation for all teams (best of 5, long layoff) that there is a definite X factor in every series. Not as much chance for a struggling team to get better during a series. It really is an asterisk, but it will be fun I guess.

[djsFlames]

Jets have looked pretty inept offensively every time I've seen them this year. Even in the classic the Flames very nearly shut them out and didn't give them much until a late blip. I've liked the way the Flames have typically played them on the road in often tight checking affairs and they've often been able to outscore them in wide open games at home. Jets will be leaning on the goaltender and I could see the flames hitting the "hot goalie" wall like they've proven to be rather good at. But this isn't one of those teams that gets into the Flames heads which is good.

If we see the Flames team we left off with (and who even knows if that's the case) then I'd give our second line a massive edge in their matchup as they were lights out, and the top trio at least holding their own. Not sure how the bottom six matchups shake out but our depth hasn't inspired faith like it has the previous couple seasons, which sucks. If Playoff Bennett makes a cameo and puck possession monster Ryan comes to play then i like how this could go. But we need mean Lucic, a noticeable Dube and a not useless Jankowski to show up here.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by AC

Gaudreau has never come across as a player that doesn't care to me. If anything I think he lets his frustrations get to him too much. That much has been really visible the last several years.

I'd put him at the polar opposite end of the spectrum from Dougie Hamilton when it comes to caring about the outcome of hockey games.

Hamilton is not the best example to use, especially since he was likely a Norris nominee this season before he was injured, and 'Canes coach Brind'Amour has been on record multiple times saying Hamilton has taken a huge step forward when it comes to leadership and playing to his full potential.

If you want an example of polar opposite for caring, look no further then Gaudreau's own linemate/triggerman.

From a Flames' perspective, this series will go as those 2 go.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Burke was just on the Fan and basically said if testing is being done frequently there will be no need to wear face masks and eliminate scrums.

Curious how this plays out. I suppose it's a question of whether the league will be 'proactive' (ie. limiting scrums, fighting, require everyone to wear a full face shield, social distancing on the bench, request to limit spitting, etc) vs 'reactive' (continue business as usual, as far as on ice game play, and use testing as the means to handle outbreaks).

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by 3rd liner

The flames seem to be notoriously slow starters after a break, so that is definitely not to our advantage. Can't comment on how WPG's starts after a season. I just can't recall a season in recent memory where the flames have come out of the gate flying.

With how frustrating some of our top guys were playing this season, I guess a restart can't hurt.
It is such an unusual situation for all teams (best of 5, long layoff) that there is a definite X factor in every series. Not as much chance for a struggling team to get better during a series. It really is an asterisk, but it will be fun I guess.

The best of 5 starting cold means we probably see less teeter-tottering and series going the distance. The team that hits the ground with any kind of traction in any given series will probably hit the three win mark pretty quickly before the other can answer. They won't be changing locales every couple games so that probably plays even more into one team running away with it.

Now is the time for the Flames to put the last decade of slow starts behind them. It won't be about being technically perfect over 200 feet cause there will be plenty of sloppy hockey in that play in round. It will be about being quick and aggressive in transition, and having your top scorers clicking with each other early.