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Old 10-11-2019, 11:37 AM   #9041
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gre...317946?cmp=rss


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Who had a Bloc resurgence on their federal election bingo card?


The campaign has seen one bizarre twist after another without any apparent impact on the polls — until now. This latest twist is a little retro. The Bloc Québécois, pronounced all but dead after 2011, has been reanimated and could significantly upend the election plans of the Liberals and Conservatives.
The CBC Poll Tracker shifted suddenly in its latest update, with the Bloc's gains in Quebec erasing the solid seat advantage the Liberals enjoyed over the Conservatives.


Since the beginning of this campaign, the Liberals had been favoured to win more seats than the Conservatives, regardless of which party was ahead in the national polling average. This was being driven in part by the party's enduring edge in Ontario — but it was Quebec that made the difference.


Liberal support in Quebec has hovered around the 36 per cent mark the party hit in 2015. Because of the wide gap separating the Liberals from the other parties in Quebec, however, they could count on winning about 50 seats in the province, a net gain of 10 over the last election's results.


But now, at just under 34 per cent, Liberal support is looking softer in Quebec. The Bloc, meanwhile, has picked up seven points in the last 10 days and has moved into second place in the province, with 27 per cent support.
That has dropped the Liberals into the mid-30s in the seat projection for Quebec, nearly tied with the Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives also have slipped and appear to be on track to win around 10 seats in Quebec, down from the 12 they took in 2015.

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From a high of 166 seats in the national projection in the days following the French-language TVA debate, before the fallout from that contest was being registered in the polls, the Liberals have plummeted nearly 30 seats to 139. That puts them just three ahead of the Conservatives.


The close race in the national polls has now become a close race in the seat projections — meaning this election has become even more of a toss-up.
There is also now only a 26 per cent chance that either party can win a majority of seats.

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But in the rural regions of Quebec and the francophone areas in and around Montreal, the Liberals had been banking on winning seats with relatively low shares of the vote, benefiting from a vote split between the Conservatives, Bloc and New Democrats.


That logic no longer holds now that the Bloc has moved into first place among francophones and (as a consequence) in the regions that were being targeted by the Liberals. That has the potential to paint dozens of seats Bloc blue rather than Liberal red.


Not helping matters for the Liberals is the fact that the New Democrats appear to be building up some momentum of their own after a strong performance by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Monday's English-language debate. After posting poll numbers that would have given them about 15 seats nationwide, they are now projected to win around 25 seats.
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:42 AM   #9042
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I found this funny


https://twitter.com/user/status/1182696761909022721
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Old 10-11-2019, 11:46 AM   #9043
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Missed an opportunity to call the PPC "MCGA" but solid effort overall.

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Old 10-11-2019, 12:33 PM   #9044
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All these plans are pure fantasy. How is any government going to be able to introduce pharmacare, spend billions on affordable housing, pay out billions in vehicle rebates and be able to reduce the deficit?
"The rich pay their fair share."
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:38 PM   #9045
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"The rich pay their fair share."
Because the status quo of licking boots and begging for crumbs is working out great.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:39 PM   #9046
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Looking more and more like a minority government here. Cannot see either Trudeau or Scheer sticking around for much more time as leaders in that situation.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:41 PM   #9047
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I miss the Rhinoceros Party
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:41 PM   #9048
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Because the status quo of licking boots and begging for crumbs is working out great.
Agree. I dont believe it's pure fantasy like others.
It may ambitious but it's a normal progressive platform Singh has put out today.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:41 PM   #9049
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Looking more and more like a minority government here. Cannot see either Trudeau or Scheer sticking around for much more time as leaders in that situation.

Probably the best case scenario, this is easily the worst crop of political party leaders I can remember in my lifetime
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:41 PM   #9050
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I miss the Rhinoceros Party
They are still around, son.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:44 PM   #9051
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Looking more and more like a minority government here. Cannot see either Trudeau or Scheer sticking around for much more time as leaders in that situation.
I think they is a small chance of a Conservative majority. Sort of like how Harper got his majority from Ontario amidst the orange wave in 2011.

I no longer think it is possible for the Liberals to get a majority.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:48 PM   #9052
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I think they is a small chance of a Conservative majority. Sort of like how Harper got his majority from Ontario amidst the orange wave in 2011.

I no longer think it is possible for the Liberals to get a majority.
The Conservatives have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a majority. The confluence of factors just aren't there: a) a solid blue Ontario outside of Toronto; b) rise of NDP in Quebec taking wins away from Liberals; and c) Conservatives taking Bloc seats.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:49 PM   #9053
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I think for the most part, most of the bullets by the major parties have been fired, especially with advanced polling. The next week or so will be re running points, and talking points and why the other side is evil.



I just don't see major shifts happening now unless something really major breaks.


I think the Liberals have to be freaking out about Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.


The NDP is just going to keep doing what they're doing.


The Greens have to be looking at May seriously, she's been bad.


The Cons can't have any bozo eruptions and need to hammer in Ontario.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:50 PM   #9054
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I think there's next to no chance of any majority scenarios.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:50 PM   #9055
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They are still around, son.
They don't have a candidate in my constituency. Shame
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:51 PM   #9056
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How about we get a minority government that gets a vote of non-confidence, Trudeau and Scheer ride off into the sunset and we get to do this again!
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:52 PM   #9057
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The Conservatives have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a majority. The confluence of factors just aren't there: a) a solid blue Ontario outside of Toronto; b) rise of NDP in Quebec taking wins away from Liberals; and c) Conservatives taking Bloc seats.
GTA Peter, GTA. Harper took 32 of 47 seats in the GTA in 2011.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:53 PM   #9058
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How about we get a minority government that gets a vote of non-confidence, Trudeau and Scheer ride off into the sunset and we get to do this again!
Freeland vs Ambrose!
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:57 PM   #9059
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I think for the most part, most of the bullets by the major parties have been fired, especially with advanced polling. The next week or so will be re running points, and talking points and why the other side is evil.

I just don't see major shifts happening now unless something really major breaks.

I think the Liberals have to be freaking out about Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

The NDP is just going to keep doing what they're doing.

The Greens have to be looking at May seriously, she's been bad.

The Cons can't have any bozo eruptions and need to hammer in Ontario.
Honestly, if things keep going the way they look like they are, you have to consider the NDP the big winners from the campaign. Definitely not a sentence I expected to type before the campaign began. They're going to get reduced to ashes in Quebec but Singh has acquitted himself quite well (especially vs. his expectations going in) and it looks like they're going to completely squash any momentum the Greens had built up in BC.

If they can hold the hammer in a minority government and get some popular items passed (i.e. dental care and pharmacare), they probably have a decent chance of picking up more seats in the next election.
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Old 10-11-2019, 12:59 PM   #9060
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Freeland vs Ambrose!
I think Raitt is probably a better choice than Ambrose because Ambrose has some of the same baggage that Scheer had coming into this election (though not nearly as much), but either would be good.

Knowing the CPC though, they'll end up tripping over their own dicks and nominate Rempel.
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