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Old 10-11-2019, 08:17 AM   #9021
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The big polling story isn't between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Its the Bloc jumping wildly in Quebec and potentially killing the Liberals seat advantage.

338canada showing a big drop in the Liberals shot at winning and it has nothing to do with the Conservatives jumping up. Its the Bloc stealing seats from the Liberals.

Right now, they've got a even a Liberal/NDP combo not having enough seats for a majority so they would need support from the Greens for a very slight majority or the Bloc.

Now I don't know what way the Bloc would vote on these pipeline that don't involve Quebec, but the Conservatives winning a minority may depend on them continuing to rise so some of you should be very pro-Bloc right now.
Support the Bloc? I think we all know what the Bloc’s position is on pipelines. It’s definitely not “let’s build more pipelines”. Why would they be pro pipeline when the majority of their province is against.
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Old 10-11-2019, 08:22 AM   #9022
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Originally Posted by PeteMoss View Post
The big polling story isn't between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Its the Bloc jumping wildly in Quebec and potentially killing the Liberals seat advantage.

338canada showing a big drop in the Liberals shot at winning and it has nothing to do with the Conservatives jumping up. Its the Bloc stealing seats from the Liberals.

Right now, they've got a even a Liberal/NDP combo not having enough seats for a majority so they would need support from the Greens for a very slight majority or the Bloc.

Now I don't know what way the Bloc would vote on these pipeline that don't involve Quebec, but the Conservatives winning a minority may depend on them continuing to rise so some of you should be very pro-Bloc right now.
A Liberal/NDP/Green government would be an absolute nightmare.
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Old 10-11-2019, 08:29 AM   #9023
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I am a little surprised the NDP wouldn't push for PR in that spot but that's probably overplaying their hand.
It would be a total waste of time.

Both the CPC and LPC would vote against it. And given they collectively make up 70% of the voting population and 80% of the seats in Commons, it's a dead issue.
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Old 10-11-2019, 08:37 AM   #9024
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A Liberal/NDP/Green government would be an absolute nightmare.
The Greens might win 3, probably 2, and possibly only 1 seat.

I dont think they would be in any position to play king maker.

It really comes down to how many seats the NDP actually secure and what deals Trudeau would promise Singh. The wrench in all of it is the BQ and what they would do.

I suspect that we see an even larger shift to the NDP in the next week as its common for party support to lag behind leader support in these polls. The vast majority of that support will come from current Liberal numbers....but may also allow for enough seats to see vote splits and have the Cons come up the middle. IF that happens in enough of the toss-up ridings, there could be all kinds of turmoil as of the morning of the 22nd.
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Old 10-11-2019, 08:46 AM   #9025
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Yeah projection of Quebec's 78 seats is now

LIB 37
BQ 29
CPC 10
NDP 2
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:04 AM   #9026
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So I want to get this straight the loathsome Kelly Leitch wanted an immigrant values test written, and the Liberal's including Justin raised absolute hell about that.


The Liberal's want immigrants to write a values test and Justin is good with that?
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:24 AM   #9027
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https://election.ctvnews.ca/ndp-prop...ents-1.4634391


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OTTAWA -- The New Democrats released their fully costed campaign plan on Friday morning, turning the clock back to what they say was a more fair and progressive tax system to help mitigate a deficit that will exceed $32 billion.
The plan’s top revenue generator, to help pay for big-ticket items like pharamcare and affordable housing, is a return to the capital gains rate to 2000 levels, when former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien was running the country.


As it stands today, 50 per cent of your capital gains are subjected to income tax, but under the NDP plan, it would increase to 75 per cent. In year one, the party expects to raise just over $8 billion from that source, which is projected to increase to just over $9 billion in year four.

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Along with the Liberals and the Greens, they’ve pledged to implement a single-payer universal pharmacare strategy if elected, which they’ve budgeted $10 billion for in year one, increasing to just over $11 billion in year four.


Singh has also prioritized new affordable housing this election – a feature of the Liberals’ 2015 plan that Singh said was left in the dust – committing $5 billion in year one to build 500,000 new units and decreasing to $3 billion in year four.


Their climate action plan will also cost a whopping $15 billion over two years, which includes provisions like a “climate forestry fund” and “zero-emissions vehicle rebates and charging stations.”


Added together, along with other relatively smaller commitments like removing interest on student loans and enhancing public infrastructure projects, they’re on a path to spend more than any other party.

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His party would run a nearly $33 billion deficit in 2020-21, which, according to their projections and taking into consideration the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s baseline budgetary balance, would decrease to just over $16 billion in 2023-24.


This bucket of debt includes a “Contingency Fund” that Singh said is pooled into the estimate to account for fluctuation in the Canadian economy, which as it stands today is exceedingly stable.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:30 AM   #9028
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Just asinine.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:40 AM   #9029
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That plan has no basis in reality. The majority of our federal parties are presenting plans that are based on pure fantasy and will only spiral things further out of control as we pay for it with increased debt and increased interest payments.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:43 AM   #9030
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Support the Bloc? I think we all know what the Bloc’s position is on pipelines. It’s definitely not “let’s build more pipelines”. Why would they be pro pipeline when the majority of their province is against.
Pretty sure the Bloc can be bought, along with Qc. That province runs on corruption. And the entire province isn’t anti pipeline, it’s mainly Montreal. Rural Quebec is actually very similar to rural Alberta.

I’ve been working all over Qc the last few years and it’s perfectly normal to bribe your way around problems.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:47 AM   #9031
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I will post what I see on the Cons platform due for release today.


I don't know if the Libs are going to release a fully costed platform.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:51 AM   #9032
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I will post what I see on the Cons platform due for release today.


I don't know if the Libs are going to release a fully costed platform.
I'm quite interested in seeing how they plan to make up that $16bn deficit that appears there.

Truthfully, only Bernier says he can balance the budget at this point (everyone else is going to do it at some point in the future) and despite that fact that he's a wacko on most things, he should be right. I think that the government revenue has risen something like $50bn over the past 4-5 years, so they don't even need to cut at this point, just stop spending as much. But you know...we need to have our votes bought!
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:54 AM   #9033
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All these plans are pure fantasy. How is any government going to be able to introduce pharmacare, spend billions on affordable housing, pay out billions in vehicle rebates and be able to reduce the deficit?
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:55 AM   #9034
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All these plans are pure fantasy. How is any government going to be able to introduce pharmacare, spend billions on affordable housing, pay out billions in vehicle rebates and be able to reduce the deficit?
You know...tax "the rich".
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:57 AM   #9035
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There's no safety net in the NDP plan if the economy slides, their figures are based on the song "everything is awesome" from the Lego movie.


Also when you look at their plan, in a vacuum it might work, but they'll lose a bunch of tax revenue when they go after Oil and Gas companies, they'll just fold up their tents in what they see as a hostile environment.



Also and someone more well versed in economics can tell me. If you bump up the capital gains from 50 to 75 percent for example, investment will slow down.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:07 AM   #9036
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As it stands today, 50 per cent of your capital gains are subjected to income tax, but under the NDP plan, it would increase to 75 per cent. In year one, the party expects to raise just over $8 billion from that source, which is projected to increase to just over $9 billion in year four.
My word - it's like they don't realize this policy will affect investment values & the gains will be much lower, if people even end up selling at all. Terrible economic policy.

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Along with the Liberals and the Greens, they’ve pledged to implement a single-payer universal pharmacare strategy if elected, which they’ve budgeted $10 billion for in year one, increasing to just over $11 billion in year four.
I'm much more in favor of a national pharmacare strategy. There is a ton of discrepancies between provinces of drugs that are/aren't covered by the provincial health authorities. Many patients can't get access to new/expensive, but more effective drugs because both provinces and employer health plans won't cover the costs. The big problem, of course, is trusting the government to run it efficiently so the overall cost to the taxpayers doesn't balloon, and even if it goes as expected, that people/businesses while maybe seeing an increase on taxes, have a decrease in the cost of drugs and benefits as a result. Like any Canadian, I'll always be skeptical of it being pulled off very well.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:32 AM   #9037
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The Greens might win 3, probably 2, and possibly only 1 seat.
They could also win 4.

Saanich-Gulf Islands (May) is guaranteed.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith (Manly) is very likely, considering he just won a by-election handily earlier this year.

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke could go a bunch of directions, but the Greens have a very strong candidate running there. I'd give the Greens at least a 50-50 chance of winning.

The riding of Victoria has flirted with Green candidates for years, but back-to-back highly respected NDP candidates/MPs have kept the Greens at bay (Denise Savoie and Murray Rankin). This is not the case in 2019, but the Greens have nominated a relative unknown as well.

The rise of the NDP in recent days does not bode well for the Greens on Vancouver Island overall, however.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:33 AM   #9038
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I'm much more in favor of a national pharmacare strategy. There is a ton of discrepancies between provinces of drugs that are/aren't covered by the provincial health authorities. Many patients can't get access to new/expensive, but more effective drugs because both provinces and employer health plans won't cover the costs. The big problem, of course, is trusting the government to run it efficiently so the overall cost to the taxpayers doesn't balloon, and even if it goes as expected, that people/businesses while maybe seeing an increase on taxes, have a decrease in the cost of drugs and benefits as a result. Like any Canadian, I'll always be skeptical of it being pulled off very well.
Yeah, I don't really have an issue with national pharmacare and national dental care. It hurts the bottom line right now but long term it's a good investment for the country. I kind of think the dental plan should just be for kids but whatever.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:41 AM   #9039
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I don't have an issue with pharma care and even dental care, but I don't believe figures in the 10 to 11 billion dollar area. Its been bought up before that its more then likely double that to implement and then slides after that.


Setting these things up isn't a simple task. And governments are likely to f up and go over budget on projects like these
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:50 AM   #9040
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The riding of Victoria has flirted with Green candidates for years, but back-to-back highly respected NDP candidates/MPs have kept the Greens at bay (Denise Savoie and Murray Rankin). This is not the case in 2019, but the Greens have nominated a relative unknown as well.
I think Collins is going to walk away with this one, honestly. She's a strong candidate with a tonne of local name recognition and ties to the community. That's who I'm probably voting for because I think she'll do the best job of representing the interests of the riding.

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