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Old 08-01-2017, 10:26 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
I wonder if they are looking at all year round holidays. Mostly I think people notice the long weekend effect in the summer months starting with the May long weekend. I suspect looking at just may to labour day would give a different result. But I dunno.
The data is in the report by market if you wanted to manipulate it to test different theories and determine if it's statistically significant if you change what holidays are considered.

They used good Friday, may long, Canada Day, August long, labour day, and thanks giving which are all major travel holidays so if the conventional logic of they raise it before big driving weekends all of these should apply.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:44 PM   #62
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The data is in the report by market if you wanted to manipulate it to test different theories and determine if it's statistically significant if you change what holidays are considered.

They used good Friday, may long, Canada Day, August long, labour day, and thanks giving which are all major travel holidays so if the conventional logic of they raise it before big driving weekends all of these should apply.
This is from www.canadianfuels.com ...

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MJ Ervin & Associates, a division of The Kent Group, found instead a much broader price trend driven by seasonal changes in the demand for gasoline, which can rise by as much as 25 percent in the springtime and summer compared to winter.
I think if you just looked at the most popular long weekends at the beginning of the spring/summer season you'd see more of a correlation. At least other analysis shows as much.

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Old 08-02-2017, 12:39 AM   #63
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Looks like Dan McTeague's predictions came true....

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Dan McTeague, senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, expects prices could rise to between 98.9 to 102.9 cents per litre as wholesale prices slowly increase.

He said gas stations can’t make money on current prices that have recently been as low as 84.9 cents per litre in Calgary.
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“We could see prices moving to 102.9 (cents per litre)– worst-case scenario. Best-case scenario, 98.9 (cents per litre) for the foreseeable future,” McTeague said.

He said it’s costing gas stations at least 90 cents per litre to buy their gasoline today, so they’re currently losing money.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3632390/hi...lgary-analyst/
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:23 AM   #64
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[QUOTE=GGG;6338406]The link below is a study based on historical Canadian gas prices. There is no evidence of holiday hikes./QUOTE]

so from what I saw posted at the pump earlier this week gas was 0.89'ish - this morning it was $1.04'ish (this is the shell at heritage and Fairmont drive)

just sayin'.....
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:27 AM   #65
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Well I got gas for 84 yesterday on the way home so pats on the back to everyone who was bumping this thread yesterday.
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Old 08-02-2017, 07:51 AM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
This is from www.canadianfuels.com ...



I think if you just looked at the most popular long weekends at the beginning of the spring/summer season you'd see more of a correlation. At least other analysis shows as much.
That is the study I linked and it shows nothing to do with long weekends. Yes gasoline is more expensive in the summer do to increased demand. No they do not raise the price of gasoline before a long weekend.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:06 AM   #67
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That is the study I linked and it shows nothing to do with long weekends. Yes gasoline is more expensive in the summer do to increased demand. No they do not raise the price of gasoline before a long weekend.
I think it's like how no one notices when a surgery goes well. But they do notice when they chop off the wrong limb even if it's a one in a million event.

This year gas went up before the May long weekend and has gone up before this long weekend. And it has gone up several times before long weekends in the past (it's not like it doesn't happen). So maybe it just seems there is a correlation because when it does happen it gets noticed.

I don't think that means its wrong to suspect there is a correlation between long weekends in the summer, demand and shenanigans to gauge a bit. Nor does that mean it is a totally random event when it does happen. It doesn't have to happen more often than not for there to be collusion when it does happen.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:36 AM   #68
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Well I got gas for 84 yesterday on the way home so pats on the back to everyone who was bumping this thread yesterday.
Ditto. Although my car uses so little fuel it really makes little difference.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:50 AM   #69
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I think it's like how no one notices when a surgery goes well. But they do notice when they chop off the wrong limb even if it's a one in a million event.

This year gas went up before the May long weekend and has gone up before this long weekend. And it has gone up several times before long weekends in the past (it's not like it doesn't happen). So maybe it just seems there is a correlation because when it does happen it gets noticed.

I don't think that means its wrong to suspect there is a correlation between long weekends in the summer, demand and shenanigans to gauge a bit. Nor does that mean it is a totally random event when it does happen. It doesn't have to happen more often than not for there to be collusion when it does happen.
Sorry, gas is no more likely to increase or decrease in price before a long weekend then any other weekend.

It is absolutely a people only notice when it happens. As noted no one was complaining the last two weeks when crude prices were rising yet gas price kept dropping. No one was saying there is a conspiracy to reduce gas prices.
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Old 08-02-2017, 11:38 PM   #70
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Gas at Costco in Okotoks was still selling for 89 today
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Old 08-03-2017, 01:03 PM   #71
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GGG you're the only defender of what was a ridiculous hike in prices. You say it doesn't happen, but this board, other boards, facebook, everywhere has the same sentiment. Everyone talks about it, and sure as #### there it is, a hike before a long weekend. It happened Canada day long too, and it will happen Labour day as well. I think people are more upset that the hikes are becoming bold, not small adjustments (like I saw on the coast this weekend, 1-2c increase), its huge swings. 10-20c overnight adjustments are just plain stupid and not necessary.
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Old 08-03-2017, 01:50 PM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleks View Post
GGG you're the only defender of what was a ridiculous hike in prices. You say it doesn't happen, but this board, other boards, facebook, everywhere has the same sentiment. Everyone talks about it, and sure as #### there it is, a hike before a long weekend. It happened Canada day long too, and it will happen Labour day as well. I think people are more upset that the hikes are becoming bold, not small adjustments (like I saw on the coast this weekend, 1-2c increase), its huge swings. 10-20c overnight adjustments are just plain stupid and not necessary.
Here's the issue... there is plenty of evidence that your's is the incorrect conclusion. In fact, there is lots of data with which you could test your hypothesis... https://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts

Gas prices are a perfect example of how our emotional experience of reality differs from the objective measures.
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Old 08-03-2017, 03:34 PM   #73
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Here's the last year's worth of holidays on top of the price chart...



It would be a lot easier to pinpoint the dates if you could select specific dates for the charts, but this is the best I could do for the 1 year chart.

Last year, Heritage Day landed on August 1, just before the chart starts. The end of the chart represents this year's long weekend.

The green bar represents when most Calgary schools were on spring break. Although not technically a holiday, I also included the start of Stampede Week.



Last year, Labour Day was in the middle of a period where the price was declining.

In addition to this week, there were price jumps prior to Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, Easter, Canada Day, and Stampede. There was a jump just prior to Mother's Day too.

There was also a jump at the end of the Family Day weekend, and jumps during Spring Break and the Victoria Day weekend.
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:05 PM   #74
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I got a tank of diesel for 88 cents at Esso on 16th Ave/Edmonton Trail about 1.5 weeks ago and it was glorious.

Sometimes I wonder if it's worth having a jerry can around for times like that but then you are lugging around extra flammable weight in your car for a savings of $5 overall.
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:06 PM   #75
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Why is the hike in price of a commodity that is driven by supply and demand, right before demand is high, such a crazy idea to people?
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:42 PM   #76
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Why is the hike in price of a commodity that is driven by supply and demand, right before demand is high, such a crazy idea to people?
Probably mostly due to their being denial from the industry that this takes place, always blaming it on some plant shut-down or something. If the message was demand goes up on long weekends, then there is not really anything to dispute. Not sure why we don't hear that more often.

But I agree with another poster who said these 15-20 cent spikes are really rubbing it in. Seems the price adjustment use to be like 3-5 cents before a long weekend.
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Old 08-03-2017, 04:51 PM   #77
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But I agree with another poster who said these 15-20 cent spikes are really rubbing it in. Seems the price adjustment use to be like 3-5 cents before a long weekend.
Yeah the jump of 20 cents over night is ridiculous. Then when it comes back down it's 1-3 cents over the course of a month or two for it to happen again when it lands around that 0.85 mark.

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Sometimes I wonder if it's worth having a jerry can around for times like that but then you are lugging around extra flammable weight in your car for a savings of $5 overall.
I started carrying two 28L jerry cans in my truck for tips to BC. From Radium to Kelowna it's consistently ~25c higher than here. So I fill up here and bring 'em along.

I did that this time since I could snag it at 84c before it went up, but I usually don't. If you're filling up once every week or two it's likely going to average out fairly well and chasing prices IMO is a waste of time to save $10 over the year (although things like Gas Buddy make it easier).

However that's in a truck - if you're in a car there's no way I'd carry it around. I'd rather spend the extra cash than carry around a container of Benzines and Naptha off-gassing in my breathing space.

My buddy started doing that after he saw me do it in my truck. I thought he was insane.
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Old 08-03-2017, 05:37 PM   #78
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GGG you're the only defender of what was a ridiculous hike in prices. You say it doesn't happen, but this board, other boards, facebook, everywhere has the same sentiment. Everyone talks about it, and sure as #### there it is, a hike before a long weekend. It happened Canada day long too, and it will happen Labour day as well. I think people are more upset that the hikes are becoming bold, not small adjustments (like I saw on the coast this weekend, 1-2c increase), its huge swings. 10-20c overnight adjustments are just plain stupid and not necessary.
Go into gas buddy and plot crude vs gas price for the month of July for Calgary. Comeback and post it here with your explanation for the pricing changes.

Then go read the report I linked and it's conclusions and post a rebuttal to it. Or present other research to support your case.

Saying gas prices went up 20 cents and Facebook agrees with me is not a credible arguement. Gas went down May long and it went down in the middle of the Canada Day weekend. It's odd they would #### us on the Friday when we are driving out but not on the Monday when we are driving home. That seems like a wierd policy.

Also why not just leave it high? It's fixed anyways right

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Old 08-03-2017, 05:52 PM   #79
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One other question that I have been looking for. Does anyone have the weekly gas sales for Canada or the US. All I can find is Monthly or Annual numbers.

The proponents assumed that their is a significant enough demand increase to warrant price fixing. So how much more consumption is there.

The other test that could be looked at is compare US and CAD gas prices on May long vs Memorial Day which are usually a week a part. If you could show a consistent delayed jump in US gas price that would also lend evidence to the long weekend price bump theory
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:03 PM   #80
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From a couple of these charts, it almost looks as if oil companies are using long weekends as an artificial price correction in their favour. It's a regular and predictable way to interrupt a downward trend.
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