Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Red

Because Calgary doesn't offer much outside of jobs. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are much more desirable (as much as we hate to admit it) because of their geography. Pretty much why they are so heavily populated.

Take away jobs, Calgary is still more desirable than Edmonton, Winnipeg etc. Van and Toronto are nicer for sure but I like Calgary not just for the jobs.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Take away jobs, Calgary is still more desirable than Edmonton, Winnipeg etc. Van and Toronto are nicer for sure but I like Calgary not just for the jobs.

Your relative analysis is very true but let's be honest here, as a born and raised Calgarian who loves this place dearly, I would still refuse to live here and pay for a house worth 3-5 times my income if the job prospects were at Winnipeg levels. There shouldn't be premium valuations (Valuations being an income multiplier as opposed to raw prices)here that much larger than other small prarie cities if the economic job factors were the same.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I would still refuse to live here and pay for a house worth 3-5 times my income if the job prospects/income levels were at Winnipeg levels.

Winnipeg houses aren't that much cheaper than Calgary, maybe a 100K or so in comparable neighbourhood. But Winnipeg's property taxes are exorbitant easily double or triple for similar property in Calgary.

A professional couple could easily pull in $150K-$200K a year here combined which is very hard to do elsewhere. That's why house prices are what they are here.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by darklord700

A professional couple could easily pull in $150K-$200K a year here combined which is very hard to do elsewhere. That's why house prices are what they are here.

Wasn't that exactly my point? Without the plentitude of jobs paying those kinds of salaries to second rate professionals here then there isn't a compelling arguement for higher prices here vs. other small prairie cities.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Red

Now something changed in Tor and Van. I think it's the new mortgage/HELOC rules and higher bank scrutiny. But that would surely hit us as well, no? If not then why?

I wouldn't consider that a major impact on the Vancouver market at all.

The biggest reason for Vancouver's slow down is the lack of wealthy immigrant money coming in this year.
Last year, we had a large amount of luxury homes/condos being purchased by wealthy immigrants, mainly from China.
This year, they're not active.

Iran hass also tightened the ability to move money out of it's boarders and has a low dollar; which has hurt that large wealthy Vancouver ethnic group as well.

This is why the detached housing market and luxury market in particular is way oversupplied compared to most years, but the entry-mid level market isn't as far off.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Red

Because Calgary doesn't offer much outside of jobs. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are much more desirable (as much as we hate to admit it) because of their geography. Pretty much why they are so heavily populated.

I completely disagree with your first sentence. I grew up in southern Ontario just outside Toronto and I hated it. As far as I'm concerned Toronto is just a big sprawling ugly crime ridden city. The only thing it has going for it is being next to Lake Ontario but you don't have to live in Toronto to be next to the lake.

Calgary has a view of the Rocky Mountains and Rocky Mountains trump Lake Ontario every day of the week.

Plus its very common to see all sorts of wildlife living in Calgary (deer, moose, the occasional cougar or bear, eagles and hawks, coyotes, etc.)

The above is an extremely uncommon occurrence in Toronto. The only wildlife you see in Toronto is the human kind.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Take away jobs, Calgary is still more desirable than Edmonton, Winnipeg etc. Van and Toronto are nicer for sure but I like Calgary not just for the jobs.

Again, disagree with the Toronto part of your statement. Toronto isn't nicer than Calgary.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Again, disagree with the Toronto part of your statement. Toronto isn't nicer than Calgary.

We all like different things.

Fact is, there are a lot more people in "insert city name" than Calgary for some reason. Always has been like that and you can apply that to any country in the world. People settle in places that have more to offer.

Or are they all wrong?

[calgaryrocks]

Originally Posted by Red

We all like different things.

Fact is, there are a lot more people in "insert city name" than Calgary for some reason. Always has been like that and you can apply that to any country in the world. People settle in places that have more to offer.

Or are they all wrong?

true, Toronto may not be nicer, but it has big business, is close to many economic centers and easier for immigrants to get to than Calgary. it also has more shipping options and is closer to Europe

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The biggest reason for Vancouver's slow down is the lack of wealthy immigrant money coming in this year.
Last year, we had a large amount of luxury homes/condos being purchased by wealthy immigrants, mainly from China.
This year, they're not active.

Iran hass also tightened the ability to move money out of it's boarders and has a low dollar; which has hurt that large wealthy Vancouver ethnic group as well.

I am unfamiliar, is there really that much money flowing from Iran in Vancouver and to have such an effect? Sanctions against Iran aren't really new or unusual?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I am unfamiliar, is there really that much money flowing from Iran in Vancouver and to have such an effect? Sanctions against Iran aren't really new or unusual?

More so China, but Iran is pretty big for our luxury market as well.
There is a large wealthy Persian community in North/West Van & Coal Harbour.

[SeeBass]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I wouldn't consider that a major impact on the Vancouver market at all.

The biggest reason for Vancouver's slow down is the lack of wealthy immigrant money coming in this year.
Last year, we had a large amount of luxury homes/condos being purchased by wealthy immigrants, mainly from China.
This year, they're not active.

Iran hass also tightened the ability to move money out of it's boarders and has a low dollar; which has hurt that large wealthy Vancouver ethnic group as well.

This is why the detached housing market and luxury market in particular is way oversupplied compared to most years, but the entry-mid level market isn't as far off.

I never thought of that. is this your opinion or do you have real numbers for this.
That is quite interesting.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

I never thought of that. is this your opinion or do you have real numbers for this.
That is quite interesting.

That's my experience of what I'm seeing and hearing around the office. We get a pretty good sense of who is or isn't buying year to year.

Would be great to see numbers on these things, but as far as I know there's no tracking of which demographics are buying down to race or things like that.

[chemgear]

Update for Calgary during September:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...991/story.html

While most of Canada’s major centres recorded year-over-year MLS sales declines in September, Calgary went against the tide with the highest annual growth rate in the country.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS sales in Calgary rose by 14.8 per cent from September 2011 to 2,054 transactions.

In contrast, sales across the country fell by 15.1 per cent to 32,192.

But the average MLS sale price in Calgary dipped by 0.9 per cent in September to $402,756.

[Red]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Update for Calgary during September:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...991/story.html

While most of Canada’s major centres recorded year-over-year MLS sales declines in September, Calgary went against the tide with the highest annual growth rate in the country.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS sales in Calgary rose by 14.8 per cent from September 2011 to 2,054 transactions.

In contrast, sales across the country fell by 15.1 per cent to 32,192.

But the average MLS sale price in Calgary dipped by 0.9 per cent in September to $402,756.

So sales are way down everywhere, but the prices haven't really moved. Meanwhile in Calgary, sales are up, but prices down?

HPI needs a revamp?

Long, but interesting read on the state of Canadian RE
http://pacificapartners.ca/blog/2012...le-chart-book/

[chemgear]

Mike F with an interesting blog post:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...map-2007-2011/

Click on the map below to view the grow op homes in Calgary between 2007 – 2011. (Yes, just in the past 5 years)



Hello Northeast Calgary!

[troutman]

Originally Posted by calgaryrocks

Toronto is closer to Europe

Is it? I don't think flight times would be much different. From Calgary you fly over the arctic to Europe.

http://www.travelmath.com/flying-tim...kfurt,+Germany

8:24

http://www.travelmath.com/flying-tim...kfurt,+Germany

9:53

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by troutman

Is it? I don't think flight times would be much different. From Calgary you fly over the arctic to Europe.

Great circle mapper has Toronto being 3556 miles to London, whereas Calgary is 4372 miles to London (over the arctic, as mentioned). So Calgary is 22% further from London than Toronto, or about 1.5 hours travel time.

http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=y...LOR=&MAP-STYLE=

As you go further east the difference gets smaller.

Edited to add: And, Troutman ninja-edits me...

[calgaryrocks]

not a huge difference by flight for sure...but still a difference. also consider early in the century when centers like Toronto and Montreal were growing partially due to immigrants coming in on boats....now we are talking a huge difference in how close Toronto is to Europe vs Calgary. also Toronto is much closer to the eastern seaboard and the associated economic powerhouse. people move where they can find work....just look at Calgary that past few decades

[firebug]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Mike F with an interesting blog post:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...map-2007-2011/

Click on the map below to view the grow op homes in Calgary between 2007 – 2011. (Yes, just in the past 5 years)



Hello Northeast Calgary!

This message brought to you by McKenzie Towne - grow-op free since 2007!