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Old 12-06-2015, 11:14 AM   #1
Kavvy
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Hey Realtor1 and all,

I heard a rumor that stated the CREB average and meridian price included in CREB stats were based off the last listed price of the house, and not the actual price sold.

It is my understanding that this came from a popular bear housing blog, but I am far too lazy to check, so maybe it didn't.

I emailed CREB and ask if this rumor was true and if it was, why did they choose this methodology - no reply as of yet so I am asking here.

If true,

In seller markets this would mean that the actual average price is lower then what is included in CREB stats (assuming more then half of the houses sell even slightly below list despite being a seller market).

In buyer markets, the average price would be greatly overstated as a good deal more places would sell below their last list price (i.e the spread between the last list and actual would greatly drop in a buyers market).

Can anyone confirm/debunk this? I checked CREB.com and didn't see anything, am I blind?

Last edited by Kavvy; 12-13-2015 at 07:20 PM. Reason: removed the name of the potential source blog as I never confirmed it myself
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Old 12-06-2015, 02:18 PM   #2
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Sounds like an extremely off way to base it on, especially considering the actual numbers are just easy to get.
To answer though, I do not know so keep the thread updated with anything you find.
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Old 12-09-2015, 11:20 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
Hey Realtor1 and all,

I heard a rumor that stated the CREB average and meridian price included in CREB stats were based off the last listed price of the house, and not the actual price sold.

It is my understanding that this came from Garth Turner's blog, but I am far too lazy to check, so maybe it didn't.

I emailed CREB and ask if this rumor was true and if it was, why did they choose this methodology - no reply as of yet so I am asking here.

If true,

In seller markets this would mean that the actual average price is lower then what is included in CREB stats (assuming more then half of the houses sell even slightly below list despite being a seller market).

In buyer markets, the average price would be greatly overstated as a good deal more places would sell below their last list price (i.e the spread between the last list and actual would greatly drop in a buyers market).

Can anyone confirm/debunk this? I checked CREB.com and didn't see anything, am I blind?
I think you mixed up a few sentences.

In a sellers market the actual price used by CREB would be lower than actual, since in a sellers market people may pay MORE than list and as such using list vs. actual sale price would indicate the market was lower than what is actually being sold.

In a buyers market you are correct, with housing perhaps being traded below ask, using the ask would reflect and incorrect average.

That said, I have no idea as to whether CREB using what you've described.
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Old 12-12-2015, 01:43 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling View Post
I think you mixed up a few sentences.

In a sellers market the actual price used by CREB would be lower than actual, since in a sellers market people may pay MORE than list and as such using list vs. actual sale price would indicate the market was lower than what is actually being sold.

In a buyers market you are correct, with housing perhaps being traded below ask, using the ask would reflect and incorrect average.

That said, I have no idea as to whether CREB using what you've described.
Nope. Even in a sellers market I think people list above what they think they will actually sell their house for. I am stating that in a sellers market, on average, people get less for their homes then they list.

In a buyers market - they get a lot less.

But, a Realtor can most likely prove me wrong or right very easily.
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Old 12-12-2015, 01:47 PM   #5
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I think you would need to define sellers market.
What inventory levels are we speaking of?

I am sure there have been a handful of markets where any given month, the average sale price is greater than the list price.

In most situations, the average sale price will always be lower than the average list. Even in a hot (but not booming) spring market, most places are selling for close to the list price with every (random number) 6th home selling for above the list price.

Also keep in mind that you have those homes that have been on the market forever and the seller is not really serious but willing to see if anyone buys into his asking price. These listings will change the stats and there are more of them than you might imagine!
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Old 12-13-2015, 07:04 PM   #6
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Is there an annual external audit of the data that CREB reports to the public? If not couldnt they skew the numbers as they see fit?
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Old 12-13-2015, 07:23 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
In most situations, the average sale price will always be lower than the average list. Even in a hot (but not booming) spring market, most places are selling for close to the list price with every (random number) 6th home selling for above the list price.
So I believe this supports my position that if this is true (again huge if), in good times, the avg price would reflect the actual average sold pretty closely, yet in bad times, it wouldn't, so the true impact of a downturn would be hidden.

As for definition of a sellers market - 2010 to May 2014.
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Old 12-14-2015, 04:40 PM   #8
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You didn't read this off Greater Fool - Garth Turner did you? Lol. Don't believe everything you read.

Even in a seller's market, most properties are selling below list.

As for CREB numbers, I'm pretty sure their "sold prices" are based off that actual price the property sells at, it would not any sense otherwise. What I have issue with is how they always choose to emphasize different numbers to paint the rosiest picture possible.
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Old 12-14-2015, 07:24 PM   #9
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err I don't get your post....

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You didn't read this off Greater Fool - Garth Turner did you?
As I stated - no I didn't read it anywhere. I was told this and never verified that it did come from Garth's blog (I don't enjoy his blog).

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Originally Posted by d00little View Post
Lol. Don't believe everything you read.
As stated - I am not taking this at face value. If I believed every word I read, I wouldn't email and call (x2) CREB and post here to find out if it is true. Doesn't that seem... counter intuitive?

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Even in a seller's market, most properties are selling below list.
You're agreeing with what I stated my feeling was, yet just like me, have no stats to support it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by d00little View Post
As for CREB numbers, I'm pretty sure their "sold prices" are based off that actual price the property sells at, it would not any sense otherwise.
I would agree- yes that is the obvious answer, yet CREB refuses to respond and state "Our average price is based on the last sold price, not list price"

Last edited by Kavvy; 12-14-2015 at 11:26 PM.
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Old 12-15-2015, 10:26 AM   #10
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False. The reported prices are the actual sale prices.

I just ran every sale for Calgary in November, all sales & then just detached sales, and cross referenced vs. what CREB posts on the front of the webpage.

After taking an average sale price for every transaction, it's an exact match to what CREB is reporting. They are not reporting the average list price

I am pulling this info out of the MLS database; I am a Realtor.
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Old 12-15-2015, 12:03 PM   #11
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False. The reported prices are the actual sale prices.

I just ran every sale for Calgary in November, all sales & then just detached sales, and cross referenced vs. what CREB posts on the front of the webpage.

After taking an average sale price for every transaction, it's an exact match to what CREB is reporting. They are not reporting the average list price

I am pulling this info out of the MLS database; I am a Realtor.
Thank you!

I still would like CREB to respond as it should be easy to respond to me, but this thread is as good as dead.
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Old 02-23-2016, 07:45 PM   #12
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So it's back. Ever since I got mocked for reading Greaterfool when I didn't, I have been monitoring it. I still think Garth can be a sarcastic @ss but whatever, he directly stated this today:

Quote:
Whatever. A relisting sets the clock back to zero. The real estate board doesn’t track the total time a property’s been for sale – just the days since the last reset. Nor, when it finally does sell, do the official stats measure the deal price as a percentage of the original asking, but rather of the most recent reduced one.

This is why, for example, Calgary is in the middle of a commodity-based economic crisis, and yet the average house price is (supposedly) up 1.64%. If that passes the smell test, you’ve had your proboscis in the wrong places lately.
So Realtors -since I can't get your professional organization to answer me, which is embarrassing since it should be a quick rebuttal, would any of you be willing to get an official message from CREB stating Garth Turner is wrong, simply wrong?

While I appreciate the comparison a Realtor did earlier, you now have a loudmouth online, with a large following, directly calling you out.

This should be so easy for CREB to fix - shouldn't it?
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Old 02-23-2016, 09:55 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
So it's back. Ever since I got mocked for reading Greaterfool when I didn't, I have been monitoring it. I still think Garth can be a sarcastic @ss but whatever, he directly stated this today:



So Realtors -since I can't get your professional organization to answer me, which is embarrassing since it should be a quick rebuttal, would any of you be willing to get an official message from CREB stating Garth Turner is wrong, simply wrong?

While I appreciate the comparison a Realtor did earlier, you now have a loudmouth online, with a large following, directly calling you out.

This should be so easy for CREB to fix - shouldn't it?
He is correct as it pertains to reporting sale to list price ratio. It is based on the list price of when the property sold. But we can also run sale to original list price ratio, and we can also run total days on market with relists. It just comes down to how you want to run the info, and obviously on how you want to report things. There's nothing deceptive about that stat. That's how it gets reported in good markets as well.

What I don't understand, is why he is correlating that stat to the average price. They are unrelated. The average price for February month to date is actually up 1.64%, and a factor affecting that is the number of luxury properties that have sold in February. For example, by feb 12 there had been 19 luxury properties sold in Feb vs 8 MTD prior year (1mm+). That's going to skew the data.

Broad, city wide statistics often don't tell the true story. Trends vary in different neighborhoods and different price ranges. The data is at every realtors fingertips. CREB reports broadly because they are reporting for the broader market, which is what you'd expect. They could cut the info much finer, but I'm sure that it would make it harder for joe public to interpret.

There's no secrets here in how things are reported. In order to pull a trend for a specific situation or a specific neighborhood, that info is available. I did a listing presentation today and my pricing recommendation was about 7% lower than what it would have been last year, because that's what the stats are pointing at for the specific trading area I was analyzing.
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Old 02-24-2016, 08:38 AM   #14
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He is correct as it pertains to reporting sale to list price ratio. It is based on the list price of when the property sold. But we can also run sale to original list price ratio, and we can also run total days on market with relists. It just comes down to how you want to run the info, and obviously on how you want to report things. There's nothing deceptive about that stat. That's how it gets reported in good markets as well.

What I don't understand, is why he is correlating that stat to the average price. They are unrelated. The average price for February month to date is actually up 1.64%, and a factor affecting that is the number of luxury properties that have sold in February. For example, by feb 12 there had been 19 luxury properties sold in Feb vs 8 MTD prior year (1mm+). That's going to skew the data.

Broad, city wide statistics often don't tell the true story. Trends vary in different neighborhoods and different price ranges. The data is at every realtors fingertips. CREB reports broadly because they are reporting for the broader market, which is what you'd expect. They could cut the info much finer, but I'm sure that it would make it harder for joe public to interpret.

There's no secrets here in how things are reported. In order to pull a trend for a specific situation or a specific neighborhood, that info is available. I did a listing presentation today and my pricing recommendation was about 7% lower than what it would have been last year, because that's what the stats are pointing at for the specific trading area I was analyzing.
Thank you for such a detailed reply. I am frustrated CREB won't respond to me, but as a non-member, I guess they are not obligated too.
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