Why the Flames will win the Western Conference again...

[Reggie Dunlop]

.... and why they won't.

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/...u1l7f88lst570z

Only the Tampa Bay Lightning scored more goals than the Flames in 2018-19. Last year's Calgary team didn't rely too heavily on special teams to score, either - according to Evolving Hockey, the Flames' 2.88 goals/60 minutes at even strength ranked fifth in the league. Young stars Tkachuk (77 points), Sean Monahan (82) and Elias Lindholm (78) broke out for career-bests while superstar wing Johnny Gaudreau flirted with the 100-point threshold. It's possible Calgary's young forwards are developing into offensive superstars all at the same time.

Exterior pressures exist among the team's Pacific Division rivals, too. The Sharks also topped 100 points last season and could just as easily replicate the feat, while Vegas returns a similar roster in its third season of NHL play. The Coyotes could play a dark-horse spoiler in the Pacific playoff race, too - a late-season push last year saw Arizona miss the playoffs by a mere four points. GM John Chayka brought in veteran Phil Kessel to aid the team's young stars in a quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. This is no suggestion that the Coyotes could knock Calgary out of a playoff spot, but the Pacific only sent three teams to the West's playoff picture last season. Expect Calgary to find more fight in its opponents during intra-division games this season.

[btimbit]

My bold prediction of the year is Arizona finishes ahead of one of San Jose or Vegas

[blankall]

I'm really hoping Bennett can become a 50 point forward and Lucic can return to being a 30-40 point forward. If both players can play a hard nose game while playing at those point levels, the team is so much harder to play against.

[Snuffleupagus]

I think Colorado will put up a lot of points next season

[The Cobra]

If Calgary finished 2nd in scoring last year, and 5th on EV, how did they not rely upon special teams to vault them from 5th to 2nd?

If Johnny, Monny, Lindholm and Tkachuck simply match their numbers from last year, I'd be more than satisfied. I would expect there's a better chance of regression than increasing those point totals.

[Mr.Coffee]

This won’t be popular around here and I hope I’m wrong but I’ve liked Vancouvers offseason and all those young good players are another year older and likely a bit more developed. They have a good goalie (I think).

They could be a good team next year, fighting for a playoff spot.

I think all the California teams get worse and Arizona, Calgary, Vancouver, Vegas fight for the top of the division.

[JackIsBack]

What about Edmonton... no one has mentioned that powerhouse to the North... they have McDavid and now Neal alongside Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins with Nurse on the backend and they signed last year's PTO and their 5th leading scorer, Chiasson, to another 2 years at more than triple his last years rate. Koskinen also starts on his new contract. With all that... what can go wrong with the Oilers?

[ricardodw]

By any metric the Flames benefited by avoiding any significant injuries last season.

Anaheim had 18.92M of cap missing games through injuries last season
Vancouver 12.87
Arizona 12.43
Vegas 8.51
Edmonton 8.25
La 7.8
Calgary 6.17
San Jose 5.46

of the Flames injuries:
Stone accounted for just over 2M (49 games)
Neal 1.4M (19 games)
Frolik .8 (15 games)
Hamonic .4 (9 games)


The Flames already have passed their last year's impact with losing Valimaki that might have been a top 4 d-man if Brodie got traded.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

This won’t be popular around here and I hope I’m wrong but I’ve liked Vancouvers offseason and all those young good players are another year older and likely a bit more developed. They have a good goalie (I think).

They could be a good team next year, fighting for a playoff spot.

I think all the California teams get worse and Arizona, Calgary, Vancouver, Vegas fight for the top of the division.

Canucks defence sucks, that is theirproblem. They have made zero improvements to their backend.

[flames_fan_down_under]

I have some serious doubts about this Flames team coming anywhere close to replicating what they did last season. They had a couple excellent months of hockey where they were legitimately dangerous on every shift, then played extremely average hockey, then just plain bad hockey. Couple this with a lot of players having career years last year it's going to be very very hard for the Flames to replicate that kind of production.

I hope it's a playoff team but I doubt this team goes anywhere past the first round. That playoff performance was embarrassing and has still left a sour taste in my mouth.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I have some serious doubts about this Flames team coming anywhere close to replicating what they did last season. They had a couple excellent months of hockey where they were legitimately dangerous on every shift, then played extremely average hockey, then just plain bad hockey. Couple this with a lot of players having career years last year it's going to be very very hard for the Flames to replicate that kind of production.

I hope it's a playoff team but I doubt this team goes anywhere past the first round. That playoff performance was embarrassing and has still left a sour taste in my mouth.

The West in general had a pretty big 'decline' overall last season. Luckily the Flames were able to take advantage of that.

While I think it will be tough to replicate a 1st place finish, they are very much a division contender and should be for years to come. However I do think the West in general has improved, so it will be a lot tougher.

[Fan69]

Can we please stop with this ridiculous players repeating career years nonsense. Our core players are entering relative scoring prime, for most last year, and exrending into the next couple for them with players like bennet, mathew, hannifin are a couple of years away from it still. Thats what young teams do we just arent used to it here.
Is it possible johny hit his peak last year. Sure. Is it possible he dulicates or beats last year. Also possible and even likely

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If Calgary finished 2nd in scoring last year, and 5th on EV, how did they not rely upon special teams to vault them from 5th to 2nd?

If Johnny, Monny, Lindholm and Tkachuck simply match their numbers from last year, I'd be more than satisfied. I would expect there's a better chance of regression than increasing those point totals.

Shorthanded goals helped.

Five on five
Calgary 6th in GF

On the powerplay
Calgary 8th in GF

Shorthanded
Calgary 1st in GF

So yeah they had a boost from special teams, but not in the traditional way in that they were not carried by their powerplay. They were 8th in goals, but should have been higher with the second most chances and only the 18th ranked success rate.

Other than Giordano, the guys putting up career years should be putting up career years given their pedigree and age. Many will probably top them again.

The most hope comes from a team with said roster winning a conference despite having both their powerplay, penalty killing and goaltending in the bottom half of the league.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I have some serious doubts about this Flames team coming anywhere close to replicating what they did last season. They had a couple excellent months of hockey where they were legitimately dangerous on every shift, then played extremely average hockey, then just plain bad hockey. Couple this with a lot of players having career years last year it's going to be very very hard for the Flames to replicate that kind of production.

I hope it's a playoff team but I doubt this team goes anywhere past the first round. That playoff performance was embarrassing and has still left a sour taste in my mouth.

Applies, more or less, to every team. That is why they play 82 games.

I also agree with the comment that 'career years' is being over-used. The core is almost all young guys who are continuing to improve, which is to be expected. Will they all put up the numbers they did last year? No, of course not. But there are other players with room to improve.

I see a team with a pretty deep collection of offensive talent, so I would expect their offensive production to be somewhere in the upper tier of the league again this season.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Canucks defence sucks, that is there problem. They have made zero improvements to their backend.

Last year the Canucks lost Elder for 12 games, Tanev for 40 games, Gudbrandson for 29 games and Stetcher for 14 games.

The Flames lost Brodie for a game and Hamonic for 9 games.

On the Flames everyone had to look after their own jobs to do and no one was asked to play a bigger role than they could handle.

Myers coming off a 20+ minutes game on a solid playoff team replaces Gudbrandson and Jordie Benn is a pretty solid 18+ minute guy for Montreal the last 2 years. Hughes / Fantenberg as 6/7 is pretty darn solid seeing as Fantenberg was higher up in the Flames hierarchy and the guy that moved him down to #7 in the playoffs Valamki is missing this year.

adding Myers, Benn, Fantenberg and Hughes is not zero improvements. Might not be the best contracts or a long term solution but they will be significantly improved over last year even if they have the same level of injuries.

[dammage79]

Its consistency. And the Flames improved on that in a new coaches first year. Can they replicate last season or come close? Probably not as it stands today. Almost every other team has made their moves and the Flames still havent finished the 19/20 product. So as it stands right now, every team closed the gap to the Flames IMO except the Oilers. So until we see what Tree has left up his sleeve it's tough to call. Tkachuk has to be signed before camp. Missing him for even a split second de rail's everything. Then you have to figure out who is still leaving the team as it is inevitable that Frolik or Brodie or whoever are still out the door.

They can do it, just need some fine tuning and to get their #2 LW on the ice ASAP

And, we REALLY need the bottom six to produce more frequently. Janko, Bennett, it's time to poop or get off the pot boys.

[Bingo]

I think all of us would trade first in the conference for a series win.

[direwolf]

I think they'll still be top 3 in the conference as far as the regular season. But this team desperately needs to get over that playoff hump. At least get past the 1st round FFS.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Last year the Canucks lost Elder for 12 games, Tanev for 40 games, Gudbrandson for 29 games and Stetcher for 14 games.

The Flames lost Brodie for a game and Hamonic for 9 games.

And Valimaki for 58 games, and Stone for 68 games, two injuries which forced rookies into the lineup quicker than expected.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And Valimaki for 58 games, and Stone for 68 games, two injuries which forced rookies into the lineup quicker than expected.

Neither in the Flames top-4 Stone was a healthy scratch for 29 games and Valimaki was in the AHL after he was off the injury list. Injured for 28 games and not good enough to be in the Flames line-up for 30 games.

Flames had a clear cut top-4 ... very very seldom were they not the top-4 in TOI in any game. Out of Brodie-Gio, Hanifin-Hamonic there was a total of 10 games lost to injury.

What do you think the over-under is for that happening in 2019-20?

The primary playoff prep the Flames have to address over the 2018-19 is working on the physical play that they will be forced to play in a playoff series.