TWC: Breaking Down the Pacific Division offseason

[sec304]

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/09/20/b...e-replacement/

Pretty interesting article ranking and evaluating every Pacific Division team's offseason based on Goals Above Replacement. Yeah that stat is a little weird to go off of soley but the article pretty much made sense.

Shows in a different way how bad the Flames offseason was and compares it to divisonal foes in the worst division in hockey.

Bring on the season!

[gilligans_off]

Found myself shaking my head and had to stop reading after the first few paragraphs. Not sure who pissed off the author, I don’t agree with much of what he said.

[Wastedyouth]

He is pretty much right.

The Flames got worse this offseason.

But on a positive note if even a couple top 6 guys bounce back to their normal numbers, they are probably still a decent team.

[Cheese]

I dont know, dont see much to argue with in his article. He is saying pretty much the same thing everyone else on here has been spewing the last few months, including the WTF signing of Gudbranson.

[PeteMoss]

I don't know much about the metric, but it appears to say Derek Ryan is a sensation. I like Derek Ryan but seems a bit much.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I don't know much about the metric, but it appears to say Derek Ryan is a sensation. I like Derek Ryan but seems a bit much.

"The Flames also lost the very capable Derek Ryan and his 7.1 GAR to their rivals in Edmonton. Ryan signed for just $1.25 million AAV in Edmonton, so it’s hard to understand why the Flames wouldn’t have brought him back considering they paid a fourth-round pick for a worse and more expensive player in Tyler Pitlick. The team also saw four other depth forwards walk out the door, none of which were major losses however."

Very capable, which he was, is not a "sensation".

[The Cobra]

While this article does a decent job of identifying the additions and subtractions, it doesn't take into account the exisiting players and whether they will improve or get worse.

So, in isolation, this is not meant to show where teams will end up, just identifying their offseason success.

[Harry Lime]

This article does highlight the one problem that I have with Treliving. Compare the Kings and the Flames. The Kings added only 3 players, and all of them are impact. The Flames feel a need to fill up every single roster spot with whatever vets are available. The idea is that the worst vet is better than the best prospect? The best successes the Flames have had in team building over the last number of year has been through their own development system, but the last two years that has been shunted in favor of older known quantities.

[Jacks]

Seems pretty spot on, this hasn't been a good offseason.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

While this article does a decent job of identifying the additions and subtractions, it doesn't take into account the exisiting players and whether they will improve or get worse.

So, in isolation, this is not meant to show where teams will end up, just identifying their offseason success.

The metric also seems focused only on last season, in which several players had bad seasons. In a season where a number of key players are in contract years, I expect a significant uptick in play as they know it will result in more dollars in their pocket - Johnny and Tkachuk being the two most notable.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Cheese

"The Flames also lost the very capable Derek Ryan and his 7.1 GAR to their rivals in Edmonton. Ryan signed for just $1.25 million AAV in Edmonton, so it’s hard to understand why the Flames wouldn’t have brought him back considering they paid a fourth-round pick for a worse and more expensive player in Tyler Pitlick. The team also saw four other depth forwards walk out the door, none of which were major losses however."

Very capable, which he was, is not a "sensation".

It's also an interesting player vs. player battle to watch this season. We let Ryan go and traded for Pitlick effectively for 4 inches and 15 lbs of difference.

So who will have the better net positive on their team? Ryan or Pitlick?

...and that's even ignoring that we spent a pick on Pitlick.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cheese

"The Flames also lost the very capable Derek Ryan and his 7.1 GAR to their rivals in Edmonton. Ryan signed for just $1.25 million AAV in Edmonton, so it’s hard to understand why the Flames wouldn’t have brought him back considering they paid a fourth-round pick for a worse and more expensive player in Tyler Pitlick. The team also saw four other depth forwards walk out the door, none of which were major losses however."

Very capable, which he was, is not a "sensation".

Well Pitlick is 5 years younger than Ryan, so there's that...

[Burning Beard]

Doesn't Pitlick actually hit as well?

[Enoch Root]

Ryan with a higher GAR than Coleman, LOL

Also, Nordstrom at +2.9 while Pitlick is -1.3 double LOL

Laughably stupid comparisons.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Doesn't Pitlick actually hit as well?

and can take a regular shift - but apparently losing Nordstrom is going to cost us

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Cheese

I dont know, dont see much to argue with in his article. He is saying pretty much the same thing everyone else on here has been spewing the last few months, including the WTF signing of Gudbranson.

There is plenty to argue

Coleman is 10x the player Ryan is

[mdubz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ryan with a higher GAR than Coleman, LOL

Also, Nordstrom at +2.9 while Pitlick is -1.3 double LOL

Laughably stupid comparisons.

Another fancy stat fail.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I honestly believe it is articles like this that make people believe advanced metrics are dumb. When dumb people write dumb articles like these.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ryan with a higher GAR than Coleman, LOL

Also, Nordstrom at +2.9 while Pitlick is -1.3 double LOL

Laughably stupid comparisons.

Don't forget! The writer also includes goaltenders Goals Above Replacement!

Apparently Marc Andre Fleury contributed almost 30 more goals than a replacement level player. He's like two Gios!

This aside from the fact that you can't actually calculate team GAR without accounting for other guys who fill the roles.

And, you know, Ryan, Nordstrom, Simon and Robinson combined for *3* goals between them... total... and had a collective GAR of 9.6, which is 9.1 higher than Josh Leivo... who scored 6 goals by himself.

This has got to be one of the dumbest articles I've read about hockey (outside a Staples article) in years.

[Samonadreau]

Would have been interesting if they used the GAR just under Sutter for last season. I think everybody fared better under Sutter. Except goaltending.

Edit: I see its just players in and out now. but still a full season under Sutter and we gain probably 5-8 points on the season just there.