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Old 11-09-2018, 03:32 PM   #1
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I know this isn't for everybody, but a simple graphic showing top five for each category.

First shade of grey is shot attempts
Second shade of grey is scoring chances
Third shade is high danger chances

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Old 11-09-2018, 03:35 PM   #2
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Some quick thoughts ...

Hamonic due to injury and Czarnik due to sitting aren't the most legit in presence.

Hamonic tied with Monahan and Gaudreau for high danger chances for

Bennett on all the high danger metrics is a big plus

Dube not finishing but on the ice to create

Same for James Neal

Another year for 3M with lots of play, but no finish?
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:37 PM   #3
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Middle bottom should be versus, not for?
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:45 PM   #4
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Can you show who is the worstest for high danger chances against? (Not that CP needs a new whipping boy... ) but I want to guess its Hanifin?
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:46 PM   #5
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Middle bottom should be versus, not for?
Right you are ... will fix
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:51 PM   #6
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Can you show who is the worstest for high danger chances against? (Not that CP needs a new whipping boy... ) but I want to guess its Hanifin?
I'll work on it ...

But the current top worst offenders in terms of high danger chances against are

1. Michael Stone 18.1 somewhat unfair as he's missed all the "improved" games
2. Gaudreau 15.7
3. Monahan 15.2
4. Hathaway 15.1
5. Tkachuk 14.7
6. Hanifin 14.5
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Old 11-09-2018, 04:17 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Some quick thoughts ...

Hamonic due to injury and Czarnik due to sitting aren't the most legit in presence.

Hamonic tied with Monahan and Gaudreau for high danger chances for

Bennett on all the high danger metrics is a big plus

Dube not finishing but on the ice to create

Same for James Neal

Another year for 3M with lots of play, but no finish?
Tkachuk and frolik seem to be finishing no problem, just backs who Is snakebitten
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Old 11-09-2018, 07:32 PM   #8
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I'm pretty convinced high danger chances is a useless stat at 5v5. Usually it's guys just shoveling pucks into a goalie's pad because they're so in-tight that there's no other option.
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Old 11-09-2018, 08:20 PM   #9
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I'm pretty convinced high danger chances is a useless stat at 5v5. Usually it's guys just shoveling pucks into a goalie's pad because they're so in-tight that there's no other option.

Not really the case from what I understand. A high danger chance has to be within home plate but also result from a pass or tip.



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Old 11-09-2018, 10:15 PM   #10
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So basically Gaudreau should be on the third line since there are much more dangerous and responsible options out there?

How do the points per 60 compare to these shot metrics?
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Old 11-10-2018, 08:40 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monahammer View Post
Tkachuk and frolik seem to be finishing no problem, just backs who Is snakebitten
Backs is on pace for 50 points and 15 goals. Considering the sample size and general quality play of his line, I wouldn't be worried. One goal here or there changes projections a lot this early.
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Old 11-10-2018, 10:05 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch View Post
So basically Gaudreau should be on the third line since there are much more dangerous and responsible options out there?

How do the points per 60 compare to these shot metrics?
Code:
Rk	Player	Age	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS	Pts/60
1	Matthew Tkachuk	21	LW	16	7	12	19	3.90
2	Johnny Gaudreau	25	LW	16	6	13	19	3.44
3	Sean Monahan	24	C	16	8	10	18	3.32
4	Elias Lindholm	24	C	16	9	9	18	3.22
5	Mark Giordano	35	D	16	2	14	16	2.41
6	Michael Frolik	30	RW	15	7	0	7	2.31
7	Mikael Backlund	29	C	16	3	7	10	2.03
8	Austin Czarnik	26	C	9	1	2	3	1.59
9	Michael Stone	28	D	10	0	4	4	1.49
10	Mark Jankowski	24	C	13	1	2	3	1.45
11	Garnet Hathaway	27	RW	11	2	0	2	1.21
12	Sam Bennett	22	C	16	2	2	4	1.18
13	James Neal	31	LW	16	3	1	4	0.93
14	Derek Ryan	32	C	15	1	2	3	0.93
15	Dillon Dube	20	C	14	0	2	2	0.83
16	Travis Hamonic	28	D	8	1	1	2	0.77
17	Noah Hanifin	22	D	16	0	4	4	0.74
18	T.J. Brodie	28	D	16	0	4	4	0.70
19	Juuso Valimaki	20	D	15	1	1	2	0.54
20	Rasmus Andersson	22	D	14	0	1	1	0.28
21	Anthony Peluso	29	RW	3	0	0	0	0.00
22	Dalton Prout	28	D	1	0	0	0	0.00
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Old 11-10-2018, 10:06 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse View Post
Backs is on pace for 50 points and 15 goals. Considering the sample size and general quality play of his line, I wouldn't be worried. One goal here or there changes projections a lot this early.
Totally agree, not worried about Backlund.

I do worry why that line overall though isn't getting it done five on five. Tkachuk has scored on the PP, with the goalie pulled, but how many with the 3M line?
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Old 11-10-2018, 10:45 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Code:
RkPlayerAgePosGPGAPTSPts/60
1Matthew Tkachuk21LW16712193.90
2Johnny Gaudreau25LW16613193.44
3Sean Monahan24C16810183.32
4Elias Lindholm24C1699183.22
5Mark Giordano35D16214162.41
6Michael Frolik30RW157072.31
7Mikael Backlund29C1637102.03
8Austin Czarnik26C91231.59
9Michael Stone28D100441.49
10Mark Jankowski24C131231.45
11Garnet Hathaway27RW112021.21
12Sam Bennett22C162241.18
13James Neal31LW163140.93
14Derek Ryan32C151230.93
15Dillon Dube20C140220.83
16Travis Hamonic28D81120.77
17Noah Hanifin22D160440.74
18T.J. Brodie28D160440.70
19Juuso Valimaki20D151120.54
20Rasmus Andersson22D140110.28
21Anthony Peluso29RW30000.00
22Dalton Prout28D10000.00


Thanks, but what I was getting at was it would be interesting to see scoring stats alongside the shot-based stats. Looking at these tables one wonders why Czarnik isnít playing much, but they donít show that the team gave up twice as many goals with him on the ice than they scored (all of these stats with limited sample size of course).

Neither scoring or shot based stats tell the whole story, why not include both in the analysis? The difference between them is interesting to dig into.
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Old 11-11-2018, 02:13 PM   #15
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Updated and added the bad offenders table as well

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Old 11-11-2018, 02:21 PM   #16
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Whole lot of Derek Ryan on the bad side.
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Old 11-11-2018, 02:32 PM   #17
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Quote:
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Another year for 3M with lots of play, but no finish?
I think that's mostly due to Backlund not finishing a lot of high quality scoring chances. If Tkachuk was making the same passes to Monahan we are talking about a 50 assist player easily. That's the frustration with Backlund. Very good in a defensive role but just a little lacking in offensive prowess you would hope for in a 2nd line role. I know someone will trot out stats to show he's decent scoring for centres but average isn't good enough if the goal is to become a cup contender. The teams that win the cup usually have more prolific 2nd line centres as Backs has only eclipsed 50 points once in his career.
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Old 12-02-2018, 01:05 PM   #18
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Update: 12/2

- Hamonic and Bennett continue to battle for comeback player of the year
- Hanifin makes top 5 in CF
- Ryan now Mr. Prevent
- Bennett opening up his lead in high danger differerentials
- Czarnik is top five in regular scoring chances, but bottom five in high danger chances which is interesting for a player that gets scratched often.
- one of the most interesting things to me is Lindholm making the differentials list. That line had a tough start, and now the defensive conscious is getting his numbers back
-Kylington doesn't have the minutes to shop up yet, but is 47% CF%, 59% SCF%, and 62% HDCF% through three games.

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Old 12-03-2018, 02:48 PM   #19
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Figured this is as good a thread as any, but I came across this really neat analysis by Sean Tierney today and thought I'd share.

Gives a visual of just how good Rittich has been this year in comparison to other goalies. Danger of sample size, of course, but very fascinating.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/s...17-18/GSAArate
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Old 12-03-2018, 03:11 PM   #20
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How do the Flames as a team compare to other teams? Based on the eye test they seem to dominate most games and most of the losses have been a result of key breakdowns (defensive coverage, goaltending, special teams).

I don't recall a game this season (besides the Pittsburgh game which never happened as far as I'm concerned) where the Flames were dominated.
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