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Old 02-14-2016, 11:58 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
Here's who I can see as sellers at the deadline (not necessary declared sellers right now):
-- Edmonton
-- Calgary
-- Vancouver
-- Arizona
-- Minnesota
-- Carolina
-- Montreal
-- Toronto
-- Winnipeg
-- Buffalo
-- Columbus
-- Philly
-- Ottawa

Only Jersey is really out of a playoff spot but still in the thick of it. I would hazard to guess that historical 4-6 points out of a playoff spot come deadline day (with equal games in hand) makes you a seller.

Now, with the cap crunch its not a question of who's a buyer, its a question of who's got space to buy. I disagree that just because a team is signing their players that makes them a buyer (or conversely, not a seller), I think it simply means that any given season any roster could make the playoffs if they perform in the regular season, so long term its better to retain your best players.

Right now the playoff bracket turnover rate is ~50% for two years in a row. That means half the current playoff teams were not a playoff team last year.
Yeah I can't see that many sellers either, teams are more primed to go for it if they are close, then they are to sell off assets. If your only 4-6 points out I don't see how you don't go for it, especially if you can bring in some help through trade without taking away from your roster.

Not sure what the cap crunch has to do with picking up players on expiring UFA contracts in the summer.

Last edited by Illuminaughty; 02-14-2016 at 01:02 PM.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:26 PM   #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
Here's who I can see as sellers at the deadline (not necessary declared sellers right now):
-- Edmonton
-- Calgary
-- Vancouver
-- Arizona
-- Minnesota
-- Carolina
-- Montreal
-- Toronto
-- Winnipeg
-- Buffalo
-- Columbus
-- Philly
-- Ottawa

I agree with the last couple posts, that view is far too simplistic.

IMO I see about 6, maybe 7 teams maximum from that list that will be sellers.

It's important to remember that (as you mentioned the cap era) in the cap era just simply being out of the playoffs doesn't make you a seller, because often times the cost to replace who you're selling is greater than the return, and for bubble teams or teams believing they're just having a bad year (Montreal, Minne, and Ottawa for example) you aren't likely seeing them sell off assets.

Even Edmonton likely looks for talent in return for talent. Not a seller.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:35 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Illuminaughty View Post
Yeah I can't see that many sellers either, teams are more primed to go for it if they are close, then they are to sell off assets. If your only 4-6 games out I don't see how you don't go for it, especially if you can bring in some help through trade without taking away from your roster.

Not sure what the cap crunch has to do with picking up players on expiring UFA contracts in the summer.
If the Flames sold Jonas Hiller at the deadline, the buying team has to take in 1.3 million in cap space. There are some teams who cant even afford it, that's how little cap space they carry. Guys like Purcell, Jones, Grabner, Borque, Legwand, etc. are not affordable since teams would rather eat up their last bit of space on a productive guy like Vbrata, Staal, Hudler, Hamhuis, Ladd, etc.

Plus every playoff team needs space for call ups. The cap crunch limits even expiring UFAs.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:52 PM   #124
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I was thinking about creating a new thread about this, but decided to post it here - well, I admit it's pure speculation. The thing is that according to the Flames website some players "grew up" an inch right before the deadline, notably:

- Backlund was 6'0 all the time, now he's listed at 6'1 200
(there's no way he's that big in my opinion)
- Bouma was 6'1 for a few years, now listed at 6'2
- Smid was 6'3 for his entire career yet suddenly he is 6'4
- Jones: 6'2 before, 6'3 now
- Monahan: 6'2 before, 6'3 now

The only player where the change is not suspicious is Monahan as it's very common to grow one inch as 18/19 year old. On the other hand Johnny is still listed at 157lbs which is basically his pre-draft weight.

Could this be a part of showcasing ? Source:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/roster.htm
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:53 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
If the Flames sold Jonas Hiller at the deadline, the buying team has to take in 1.3 million in cap space. There are some teams who cant even afford it, that's how little cap space they carry. Guys like Purcell, Jones, Grabner, Borque, Legwand, etc. are not affordable since teams would rather eat up their last bit of space on a productive guy like Vbrata, Staal, Hudler, Hamhuis, Ladd, etc.

Plus every playoff team needs space for call ups. The cap crunch limits even expiring UFAs.
All the Flames have to do in that case is take an expiring contract back... Which actually probably helps the flames as it would likely mean another piece thrown in by the other team as well.

I fully expect to see Hiller dealt at the deadline to someone for some insurance.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:58 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by playmaker View Post
I was thinking about creating a new thread about this, but decided to post it here - well, I admit it's pure speculation. The thing is that according to the Flames website some players "grew up" an inch right before the deadline, notably:

- Backlund was 6'0 all the time, now he's listed at 6'1 200
(there's no way he's that big in my opinion)
- Bouma was 6'1 for a few years, now listed at 6'2
- Smid was 6'3 for his entire career yet suddenly he is 6'4
- Jones: 6'2 before, 6'3 now
- Monahan: 6'2 before, 6'3 now

The only player where the change is not suspicious is Monahan as it's very common to grow one inch as 18/19 year old. On the other hand Johnny is still listed at 157lbs which is basically his pre-draft weight.

Could this be a part of showcasing ? Source:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/roster.htm
Could be rounding up or sloppy measuring. It could also be that men don't technically stop growing until they're 25. Athletes on PEDs who put on 15lbs of muscle in their early twenties are probably more likely to grow an inch over the general public.
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Old 02-14-2016, 12:59 PM   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by playmaker View Post
I was thinking about creating a new thread about this, but decided to post it here - well, I admit it's pure speculation. The thing is that according to the Flames website some players "grew up" an inch right before the deadline, notably:

- Backlund was 6'0 all the time, now he's listed at 6'1 200
(there's no way he's that big in my opinion)
- Bouma was 6'1 for a few years, now listed at 6'2
- Smid was 6'3 for his entire career yet suddenly he is 6'4
- Jones: 6'2 before, 6'3 now
- Monahan: 6'2 before, 6'3 now

The only player where the change is not suspicious is Monahan as it's very common to grow one inch as 18/19 year old. On the other hand Johnny is still listed at 157lbs which is basically his pre-draft weight.

Could this be a part of showcasing ? Source:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/roster.htm
I'm just surprised that the Flames updated their stats. Mostly they've shown the height and weight from their draft years and hasn't been changed in over ten years.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:01 PM   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by playmaker View Post
I was thinking about creating a new thread about this, but decided to post it here - well, I admit it's pure speculation. The thing is that according to the Flames website some players "grew up" an inch right before the deadline, notably:

- Backlund was 6'0 all the time, now he's listed at 6'1 200
(there's no way he's that big in my opinion)
- Bouma was 6'1 for a few years, now listed at 6'2
- Smid was 6'3 for his entire career yet suddenly he is 6'4
- Jones: 6'2 before, 6'3 now
- Monahan: 6'2 before, 6'3 now

The only player where the change is not suspicious is Monahan as it's very common to grow one inch as 18/19 year old. On the other hand Johnny is still listed at 157lbs which is basically his pre-draft weight.

Could this be a part of showcasing ? Source:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/roster.htm
Or they finally updated the measurements? The numbers had been same for years. Especially the weights. Glad they updated it.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:10 PM   #129
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Or they finally updated the measurements? The numbers had been same for years. Especially the weights. Glad they updated it.
The strange thing is that they updated only some players (especially when most of them don't look that big on the ice)
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:13 PM   #130
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Every team in the league exaggerates their players' heights
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:13 PM   #131
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I think most of the exaggerated measurements come from the shorter players such as Granlund and Gaudreau who are maybe an inch or two shorter than listed. Just my guesses but Granlund is probably about 5'10 and Gaudreau about 5'8.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:14 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by playmaker View Post
The only player where the change is not suspicious is Monahan as it's very common to grow one inch as 18/19 year old.
Meh, maybe they are inflated. But Monahan is probably inflated as well. He doesn't look more then a couple inches taller then Backs in the best side by sides I've seen.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:15 PM   #133
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How many teams are looking to improve through trade to make the playoffs or go far? like 20?
How many teams will be selling off? like 6-8?
How could it not be a sellers market with those conditions?

Like half the teams in the league are going to want to improve their defensive depth and there certainly aren't 15 great defensemen on the market this trade deadline.
I would argue the opposite of the bolded. Teams are so unsure of whether they are definitely contending teams they won't want to mortgage any futures for rentals.

I agree there are only a handful of sellers. But I would say there are also only a handful of buyers while the rest of the league is just going to let things play out.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:15 PM   #134
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I don't think managers and scouts are too concerned or using the teams website when scouting or considering players. They get a little deeper than that and have a lot more at their disposal to evaluate from.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:15 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by MarkGio View Post
If the Flames sold Jonas Hiller at the deadline, the buying team has to take in 1.3 million in cap space. There are some teams who cant even afford it, that's how little cap space they carry. Guys like Purcell, Jones, Grabner, Borque, Legwand, etc. are not affordable since teams would rather eat up their last bit of space on a productive guy like Vbrata, Staal, Hudler, Hamhuis, Ladd, etc.

Plus every playoff team needs space for call ups. The cap crunch limits even expiring UFAs.
I think GM's could easily work deals around that if the desire is there for a trade.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:20 PM   #136
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I think GM's could easily work deals around that if the desire is there for a trade.
I was going to ask, what stops us from retaining salary on a deal for a player like Hiller to make the deal work and get asset we want and make it work for our trading partner. Based on us trading likely for picks or prospects, it's not like we will need the cap space ourselves. But I'm not familiar with the finer details on retaining salaries in trades so maybe there is a reason we couldn't do that.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:23 PM   #137
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I would argue the opposite of the bolded. Teams are so unsure of whether they are definitely contending teams they won't want to mortgage any futures for rentals.

I agree there are only a handful of sellers. But I would say there are also only a handful of buyers while the rest of the league is just going to let things play out.
Unsure because of their spot in the standings? Or unsure because of the life cycle of their franchise (not a contender, still retooling, etc)? The thing is a lot of GM's know that if you make the playoffs anything can happen.

I feel like a lot of GM's are optimists not realists. We saw this with Feaster here who blabbed on about intellectual honesty and that we should be sellers if the team didn't show him enough and then he still doesn't sell after they lose some key games and didn't look like they had a realistic shot.

Any team that is like 4 points out that has some reasonable excuse as to why they are that low (injuries, bad luck, w/e) and feels they can make the playoffs probably won't hesitate to add depending on cost. I mean the fringe teams may not be the ones adding the highest profile UFAss but they may still shop for depth at a lower price and picks up lesser UFAs for mid round draft picks. Obviously the fringe teams are unlikely to mortgage the future completely for just a chance at the playoffs but that doesn't mean they won't be "buyers" and won't affect the market. Just the fact that they aren't sellers will help the sellers as well.

Guess we'll see, we can speculate all we want. But based on how tight the standings are and the history of trade deadline action I see a lot of deals happening and I see UFAs going for decent amounts.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:41 PM   #138
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Even if there's only a handful of buyers and sellers that shouldn't effect whether deals get done or not. As a seller you only need two teams bidding for one of your players to get a lofty return.

The most prudent move for a franchise to make is usually hampered by the business interests of the owners, there's no certainty and hind sight is always 20/20, so you might as well got for it if your within striking distance seems to be the mantra.
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Old 02-14-2016, 01:48 PM   #139
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I was going to ask, what stops us from retaining salary on a deal for a player like Hiller to make the deal work and get asset we want and make it work for our trading partner. Based on us trading likely for picks or prospects, it's not like we will need the cap space ourselves. But I'm not familiar with the finer details on retaining salaries in trades so maybe there is a reason we couldn't do that.

As far as I know nothing, I think we can retain a portion of salary and the other team could do some economic feng shui within the organization to make it work
i.e. call-ups and waivers.

I bet if Brad wants to make a move, he'll be able to get it done and Russel and Hudler could garner a nice return. It's the right thing to do for the organization at this point. Even if we make the playoffs were just fodder for the Ducks or Kings.
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Old 02-14-2016, 02:08 PM   #140
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If i remember correctly, Mony was listed at 6'2.75" at the draft combine. In Johnny's case, I've stood near him a few times and i find it hard to believe that he's 5'9".......
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