[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Cole436]

What's the pre-election polling on Nevada? Is this predicted to go down to the wire?

[GirlySports]

Most interesting to me how Republican Senators won but Trump will lose.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Based on what? The super accurate polls?

Seems that Biden lost ground for being a "socialist"...What does Bernie win that Biden didn't?

Lets not forget Biden destroyed Bernie in a primary election, Biden wasn't just picked out of a hat

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Based on what? The super accurate polls?

The only likely area that Bernie would have done better on is latino voters. Black voters generally prefer biden. In the industrial midwest, Biden's just a clearly better candidate. I don't think Bernie wins this thing.

If there's another Bernie on the Horizon, though, that could change. I strongly believe that Sherrod Brown has the chance to make that sort of move, although he clearly doesn't have Bernie's activist history he does have a lot of working class, blue collar credibility and is popular in the right part of the country.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Also, I think this election should show every democracy that an upper age limit should be in place. Make it match retirement age.

It would be more appropriate if it matched the average age of death. Plenty of well read and well reasoned retirees.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Everything showed Biden had the best chance to beat Trump. He won the nomination.

Who do you believe should be there instead that would be a better option?

Don't know but this is the second election where they ran an establishment candidate and are not doing well.

The whole campaign reminds me of Scheer vs Trudeau. Where Scheer basically ran as at least I am not that guy.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don’t disagree with your sentiment just exit polls this year need to be looked at very closely to ensure they were calibrated against mail in voter rate.

Exactly this.

Republicans, for whatever reason, are more likely to vote in person. I doubt it matters if they are black or white. The exit polls are going to be varying degrees of misleading more so this year than in most.

Just one more thing for Republicans to cling on to and misinterpret to fit their narrative.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Seems that Biden lost ground for being a "socialist"...What does Bernie win that Biden didn't?

Lets not forget Biden destroyed Bernie in a primary election, Biden wasn't just picked out of a hat

Well one thing Bernie has going for him is actually something the Democrats have been criticized for a lot the last 24 hours.

He is a blue-collar candidate for the working class. You can argue about his viewpoints and whether they are right or wrong till the cows come home, but you cannot deny that Bernie isn't out there plugging away from the average middle class American.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Don't know but this is the second election where they ran an establishment candidate and are not doing well.

The whole campaign reminds me of Scheer vs Trudeau. Where Scheer basically ran as at least I am not that guy.

Who would have beat Trump by more? Trump is a moron but literally has a cult voting for him

[GreenLantern2814]

I think these results clearly show that the issues liberals and conservatives have with one another are not nearly so simple as “everyone who votes for Trump is a racist idiot”.

Maybe, just maybe, that’s no way to make friends and build bridges. Conservatives en masse are not racist idiots. Liberals en masse are not godless communists.

Most people, near as I can tell, want to be left alone and they want a secure, stable environment for their family.

Maybe start with that, and see where it goes. As opposed to whatever the #### this has become.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

The bigger issue is that people are constantly trying to label voters into groups, and that clearly is being rejected here. How many times have we seen the whole 'Trump supporters are all racists' being thrown around here on CP? Is that the perception? Or actual reality?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324004582360522752

I don't know, Trump's support among black voters is pretty normal. The Obama elections were the outliers if anything. Here's the % of the black vote that Republican presidential candidates have gotten since 1980:

1980: 14%
1984: 9%
1988: 11%
1992: 10% (plus 7% for Perot)
1996: 12% (plus 4% for Perot)
2000: 9%
2004: 11%
2008: 4%
2012: 6%
2016: 8%
2020: 12% (based on NYT exit polls)

[GGG]

I’m interested in seeing the spoiled/disqualified ballot numbers for inperson versus absentee.

I as read I think on 538 but could have been elsewhere that the spoilage rate is less than 1% for in person voting but up to 3% for mail in.

So while it wouldn’t explain all of the movement, in heavy mail in vote states it could account for 1 -1.5 points.

[PsYcNeT]

Arizona uncalled for Biden by ABC.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Most interesting to me how Republican Senators won but Trump will lose.

Senate races are prone to the effects of gerrymandering, which disproportionately helps Republicans more than Democrats.

[TheScorpion]

Georgia getting even closer. Now just 1.7% difference in favour of Trump with lots of Atlanta vote still to come.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Senate races are prone to the effects of gerrymandering, which disproportionately helps Republicans more than Democrats.

How do you gerrymander a statewide race?

[ernie]

Not sure this was noted in all the finger crossing etc on the presidential race but something that is both funny and sad.

North Dakota, state that has completely buried its head in the sand when it comes to COVID had GOP member David Andahl elected to the state legislature. He died of COVID last month.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Arizona uncalled for Biden.

I wish people would post links to these things, or where they saw them. Because I have fox up and the AP map and neither of them have uncalled AZ as far as I can see yet.

Not saying you're wrong because I might be lagging but post a source.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Azure

Well one thing Bernie has going for him is actually something the Democrats have been criticized for a lot the last 24 hours.

He is a blue-collar candidate for the working class. You can argue about his viewpoints and whether they are right or wrong till the cows come home, but you cannot deny that Bernie isn't out there plugging away from the average middle class American.

I think Bernie is great but he would have lost badly...he is seen as a socialist and that scares many Americans

Again what state that Biden lost would Bernie have won?

Its not about who we think is good its about who gets the votes

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Maybe it doesn't matter what you try to sell if someone won't buy it anyways?

There could be a ton of single issue voters out there that don't care about anything but that one issue that means everything to them.

Could be guns. If they really think the Dems will take their guns away like Trump says, they vote red. If they are pro-life, they're voting red. If they only care about stopping all immigrants at the border they are voting red. If they don't care about the environment and just want to open up everything with no regulations for the sake of jobs, they're voting red. If they only care about having a conservative SCOTUS they are voting red. If they love their health care and think the Dems will take that away from them they're voting red. Just some examples.

A lot of those voters might actually agree with the Dems on a lot of other issues, but if that one issue they are passionate about the most leans red, that's where their vote is going.


And that's not even taking into consideration the conspiracy theories, the endless Trump lies, gerrymandering, the amount of voters that get their political info from places like Facebook and Fox.

That's why I say this isn't on the Dems (well, not entirely), this is on the voters. Unless the Dems start lying, peddling conspiracy theories, take over Facebook, or start moving right on a bunch of issues we're probably going to have more of the same for the foreseeable future. And I'm not saying the Dems can't do anything to sway some votes......they can. But as long as there are voters out there that only care about one issue and that issue is clearly red/right/conservative, it will be tough to dominate the electoral college.

The bold is very accurate.

People on average are very stupid and very selfish. This is why we are dealing with an out of control pandemic in north America that was contained in Asian countries first hit like Vietnam, South Korea and Japan. Individualism breeds selfishness, reasons to be Democrat or Republican are mostly for selfish reasons (you benefit the most from those policies).

Everything that Trump has done so far, the covid denial, all the chaos, none of that matters to a voter who only sees us vs them. "They" will destroy your ideologies, "they" are socialists that want to take away what you have.

Democrats need to become more moderate on certain issues, as the US sure as heck is not a moderate country. It doesn't mean abandon things that need to be fought for, it means get out of the business of telling people what is best for them.

Let's also remember that not that long ago, Democrats were the racist right wing party fighting for slavery and segregation while Republicans were considered left wing. Someone born 100 years ago would be utterly confused in 2020.

Identities can change.