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Old 01-18-2019, 03:14 PM   #41
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Do you think in 5 years, if MB, BMW, Lexus, Volvo etc have electric power trains, that people would still chose a Tesla though? I'm dubious about that. The car industry is full of innovators that got run over once the big guys caught up.

I get that today, Tesla is the obvious choice for a unique vehicle with an electric power train. I'm just not sure that's going to be the case going forward.
I guess we'll have to see. All I know is that Tesla has built up an ass-ton of brand equity in their niche, so they have a really nice head start..and it's not just about the tech. BMW has had electric cars out there for years now...but when's the last time you saw a BMW i3? GM's electric car products are already pretty great, but I see 10 Teslas for very Bolt or Volt on the road. I don't think they'll maintain their lead from a technical perspective, but they may be able to retain their brand advantage through other means. Not unlike with Apple, it's not always about the technology.

In the end the car though the car business is a tough one. Their best bet may be to get bought out.
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Old 01-18-2019, 03:46 PM   #42
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I have argued with friends for years now that Tesla is just the lab rat and companies are sitting in the weeds letting them go through the process before replicating and improving the idea.

If Musk truly doesn't care about the money and just wants to make the planet a healthier place then all the power to him. He has been a very large part of the EV movement but as a company, I just don't see it ending well.
Tesla's competition has so far show to be not as efficient, and slower plus Tesla is way ahead in software. Assuming the company can make it that far by the time the BEV goes mainstream (if it has not already) Tesla will be at least 2 generations ahead.
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Old 01-18-2019, 06:00 PM   #43
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I've always thought the endgame for Tesla was a buyout shortly after one of the other Majors goes into full scale competition with them, until thien this isn't the competition the big car companies are thinking about in bed at night.

I see a world were BMW launches an EV option of their full product range, and we hear about Telsa being folded into the Ford Motor Company 6 months later (For example).
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Old 01-18-2019, 07:32 PM   #44
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I've always thought the endgame for Tesla was a buyout shortly after one of the other Majors goes into full scale competition with them, until thien this isn't the competition the big car companies are thinking about in bed at night.

I see a world were BMW launches an EV option of their full product range, and we hear about Telsa being folded into the Ford Motor Company 6 months later (For example).
Yeah, the importance of Tesla has never and will never be tied to it being a big player in the automotive industry.

What Musk has and continues to do well is innovate, refine, and spark progress in the industries he’s involved in. Whoever said he’s a snakeoil salesman is wrong, unless you believe snakeoil is something that actually works.

I could see them being consumed by one of the big four, but I think it’s more likely they transition and adapt the technology into different areas. They already have a semi-truck coming which inspired Daimler to compete and make one of their own, which could lead to the electric age for vehicles of that type. I see them continuing that path and inspiring a lot of other transportation methods to move to electric.
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Old 01-18-2019, 09:32 PM   #45
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This is what the Japanese have been doing for decades. Letting the Germans innovate and once the technology is perfected they then copy and implement into their own lineup.
I would somewhat disagree. The Japanese have carved out their own technology niche in the automotive world and are now looked upon for their expertise by others. HEV tech being the main one. I would say the Japanese are now Leaders in many regards. Porsche may not exist as we know today, without the help of Shin-Gijutsu (Toyota) and their 'lean' teachings in production which helped turn the company around in the 90's. Porsche is also typically the most reliable German brand now.

The Korean manufacturers are now the one's that better fit your 'copy and implement' assessment.
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Old 01-18-2019, 10:26 PM   #46
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Yeah, the importance of Tesla has never and will never be tied to it being a big player in the automotive industry.

What Musk has and continues to do well is innovate, refine, and spark progress in the industries he’s involved in. Whoever said he’s a snakeoil salesman is wrong, unless you believe snakeoil is something that actually works.

I could see them being consumed by one of the big four, but I think it’s more likely they transition and adapt the technology into different areas. They already have a semi-truck coming which inspired Daimler to compete and make one of their own, which could lead to the electric age for vehicles of that type. I see them continuing that path and inspiring a lot of other transportation methods to move to electric.
Musk has a history of letting go when hist project is ready to survive on its own in the wild. And as soon as one of the bigs is ready to compete in this industry the others will all be looking for the shortest path to entry.

It would be somewhat shocking if this isn't the long term vision for the investors. Also selling off the the car tech and assets does not prevent him from keeping the battery company, the power walls, the solar roof tiles, hyper loops, what ever else is peeking his interest at the time.
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Old 01-19-2019, 01:15 AM   #47
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Maybe I’m a total prick, but I wouldn’t mind if Tesla failed. Terribly ugly cars, reserved for people who really think the change in their lifestyle the world needs is simply an electric vehicle. And really, concerned for making a healthier planet first and foremost? From the same guy who wants to have *rocket powered* space tourism? A company proped up shallow idiots.
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Old 01-20-2019, 07:23 PM   #48
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Maybe I’m a total prick, but I wouldn’t mind if Tesla failed. Terribly ugly cars, reserved for people who really think the change in their lifestyle the world needs is simply an electric vehicle. And really, concerned for making a healthier planet first and foremost? From the same guy who wants to have *rocket powered* space tourism? A company proped up shallow idiots.
I'm fairly sure rockets aren't powered by oil, duh.
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Old 01-20-2019, 07:48 PM   #49
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I'm fairly sure rockets aren't powered by oil, duh.
Kerosene and oxygen first stage, hydrogen and oxygen second stage. Soon to be methane and oxygen first stages. Or was that green text?

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Old 01-20-2019, 08:04 PM   #50
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Maybe I’m a total prick, but I wouldn’t mind if Tesla failed. Terribly ugly cars, reserved for people who really think the change in their lifestyle the world needs is simply an electric vehicle. And really, concerned for making a healthier planet first and foremost? From the same guy who wants to have *rocket powered* space tourism? A company proped up shallow idiots.
To each their own I guess, but I am curious how you envision the slow migration away from fossil fuels to look? The magic genie pops out of the bottle and says...no more carbon?

It's all gimmicky....from the plastic straws to electric cars, to oil companies buying wind farms. However this type of societal transition does not happen over night requires changes and recognition at the user level. This is how supply side economics will need to be changed until the cost of technology catches up. The days of government funded space races are over...
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