Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

Having been burnt by “I’ll just wait a bit more” and having had the stock drop on me I’m now in the mode that if I’m considering selling some/all then I do it and don’t look back. I’ve lost more, much more, by holding than by selling “too early”. 150% is great. If you were told when you first bought if you’d make even 75% you would have likely been happy. Take the 150 and run or sell your book value or book value plus a little profit and ride the rest if you think there is still room.

I had a coworker years ago who told me when he bought something his broker asked him what percentage increase would make him happy? They’d agree on a number and the broker will put in a sell order for that level. He was happen whenever his broker would call and tell his stock sold as it hit his level. It’s tough to have the discipline to do that and there are likely times where you’ll sell too early but then there are likely moments when you’ll dodge a bullet. Those are more important than selling at 150% instead of 200%.

Yeah I bought goodfood at the beginning of the pandemic for 3 dollars a share and then sold when it hit $8 because it seemed the world was opening back up again and it already seemed overvalued at 8... now its been hitting $13 and I'm kicking myself but your perspective is definitely the right way to go about trading

[FurnaceFace]

Here's a highly speculative one. QYOU. They are a Toronto based media company and their main product is a Hindi language youth channel in India. They have reach to 650 million people. I've followed since December and they have recently announced a monetization effort which caused a bit of a spike today. They could end up a penny stock forever or they could break out but thought it was an interesting market to play in.

[FurnaceFace]

Originally Posted by J epworth

Yeah I bought goodfood at the beginning of the pandemic for 3 dollars a share and then sold when it hit $8 because it seemed the world was opening back up again and it already seemed overvalued at 8... now its been hitting $13 and I'm kicking myself but your perspective is definitely the right way to go about trading

...also one I have a really hard time following myself. The disciplined investors are the best off in the long run. Making 2.5 times your initial over a 6-8 month timeline is pretty damn good. Congrats.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by agulati

I believe I had seen the recommendation for THMO here by manwiches. It is up 18.5%. today. Curious what would be your PT

I'm already out. I had two plans on this one. I got my Plan B

Plan A was to wait for them to PR, as they just finished a presentation at the HC Wainwright conference on Jan 11, and hadn't PRed yet. Most genomics stocks go through multiple offerings, and especially those backed by HCW. Typically they do a PR, and it's followed up immediately by an offering. So my first plan was to wait for a PR, and have it gap up to the 3.4s and likely 4s on the news. Small float for now, beaten down, and high short interest. Short squeeze.

Plan B was to wait til furus hopped on it, pumped it up, and sell the spike. Yesterday's spike was ideal to sell into, and not tie up my capital. So scaled at 3.0, then scaled the rest at 3.15.

I have a pretty good understanding of what these kind of stocks do, so selling into any fomo buying is key.

They could PR still, but the bigger move for me was yesterday. Play what the market gives you.

[J pold]

Originally Posted by manwiches

Yep.

I swing trade and scalp. I leave investing to my wealth manager

So my short term thesis for this is extremely bullish. High high short interest, bottomed out chart, lots of rumor and buzz (rumored Amazon buyout, Biden actually coming out saying he would help theatres, global market, CEO has come out said they are aggressively pursuing a bailout). Also, look at what GME did recently, what KODK did last year too. More relevant examples are HTZ and JCP.

All those factors = short squeeze city. It seems counterintuitive, but the higher short interest, with the right chart and sentiment, is blood in the water for bullish traders.

I anticipate this moves very much like the above tickers over the next month. I had been watching this one for bottom, and when the reversal started last week before the hype, and it hit my scanner, I loaded big at 2.02, with a downside of 1.97. my PTs start at $5 and then $7, based on fibbs and vol profile.

I will and still am holding full despite yesterday's and today's moves. There is very little chance of an offering due to its poor sentiment right now. There should be a few squeezes before it hits my PTs, but I'll hold full til I get to my first PT, unless the pullbacks are significant, which I'll scale and readd dips.


Now for the same reason JCP and HTZ ran early and hard in the short term, is why I am also long term bearish. I won't hold anymore once it reaches my targets. I have a pretty hard rule of not "investing" or swinging long term pennies.

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Bought up some AMC yesterday - let's see where it goes!

[Table 5]

AMC looks to be in one of those situations where things are so negative for the industry that it doesn't even have to do great for it to pop. They may just need to go from "terrible" to "bad", and you'll still come out ahead.

Assuming they don't go under that is.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by J pold

Bought up some AMC yesterday - let's see where it goes!

Hope you're banking! Squeeze number 3.

Look at GME. this is my benchmark. It might not go that far, but even a fraction of that, AMC has more legs. As i stated before, i'm holding full for my PTs

Fundamentals mean jack on this stock. Hit it and quit it

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Table 5

AMC looks to be in one of those situations where things are so negative for the industry that it doesn't even have to do great for it to pop. They may just need to go from "terrible" to "bad", and you'll still come out ahead.

Assuming they don't go under that is.

Short term to be profitable, all that is needed is that high short float and general sentiment of movies being loved, Biden saying he will save movie theaters, AMC saying they are aggressively pursuing bailouts, etc.

Long term, they will either be bought out or file bankruptcy. But i'll have long made my money before they do that, just as I did from JCP and HTZ.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by manwiches

Hope you're banking! Squeeze number 3.

Look at GME. this is my benchmark. It might not go that far, but even a fraction of that, AMC has more legs. As i stated before, i'm holding full for my PTs

Fundamentals mean jack on this stock. Hit it and quit it

I don't know that this is a short-squeeze though. Everyone knows that company needs money and insiders are selling their shares. It's definitely interesting to watch from the outside, and it's entertaining to me.

The underlying story with GME doesn't change though. It's retail business is dead; they're not getting people trading in games because people have no discs to trade in the first place. It's all online, and this is essentially Blockbuster all over again. Personally, I don't care because it's fun to watch. Some calls were up about 10,000% this morning and the shares were halted twice, I think. It's hilarious...even if it's not actually investing.

[bluejays]

What are others thoughts on blackberry? The more I’m reading I’m starting to buy into the thought of security being the next big wave and with blackberry seemingly turning a corner are they in a good position for growth in the next year?

[J pold]

Originally Posted by manwiches

Hope you're banking! Squeeze number 3.

Look at GME. this is my benchmark. It might not go that far, but even a fraction of that, AMC has more legs. As i stated before, i'm holding full for my PTs

Fundamentals mean jack on this stock. Hit it and quit it

Great day today! I'm holding until we get in the $5.00 - $7.00 target range.

Also, hold BB which is up 25% since I got in a few weeks ago!

Great day all around.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know that this is a short-squeeze though. Everyone knows that company needs money and insiders are selling their shares. It's definitely interesting to watch from the outside, and it's entertaining to me.

The underlying story with GME doesn't change though. It's retail business is dead; they're not getting people trading in games because people have no discs to trade in the first place. It's all online, and this is essentially Blockbuster all over again. Personally, I don't care because it's fun to watch. Some calls were up about 10,000% this morning and the shares were halted twice, I think. It's hilarious...even if it's not actually investing.

Oh for sure. I tossed that term out a little too much. It's only up 17% today. The past couple legs have definitely been shorts covering, and each new leg just brings more shorts to the dance to drive the price back down, in addition to profit takers. I want to see that epic 100%+ squeeze, where margin calls are made. That'll be my exit queue, and i'm anticipating it'll come soon, into the $5 dollar range, and hopefully more.

Just the fact the the short float is massive, it will have it's day. GME/JCP/HTZ, they all took their time getting to where I thought they'd go, as more 'good' news comes out.

I didn't go massive into this, but I put enough in to it that this trade already has helped me to my 3 month goal inside 1 month.

[rvd123]

manwiches What scanner are you using and what are you settings ?

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by fleury

What are others thoughts on blackberry? The more I’m reading I’m starting to buy into the thought of security being the next big wave and with blackberry seemingly turning a corner are they in a good position for growth in the next year?

I have been a long time suffering shareholder of Blackberry for approx 10 years. I have been through a million up's and down's with this stock, overall it was a bad move on my part 10 years ago since I didn't understand what I was getting into as much as I should have.

That all being said, I do think they are posed for some solid growth in their core business over the next few years. The core business they are in is in cyber security, no mobile phones. One of the issue's that they suffer from is market name perception. The company used to be called Research in Motion (RIM) than somebody made the decision to rename the company Blackberry, after their product that was failing in the market (2013)

They have a few different lines of business in providing security solutions to enterprise and government entities. Their future growth is based on their QNX operating system and securely connecting internet connected devices and services.

The recent explosion in the stock price is primarily attributed a few things.

1) Exclusive deal with Amazon for a platform for cars and the transportation industry. More info can be found here. https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/aws

2) Patent sale and Facebook lawsuit settlement: Blackberry recently sold a patent portfolio to Huawei for mobile phones and settled a long standing lawsuit with Facebook for their WhatsApp messaging platform. Details haven't been disclosed yet but it could provide a nice cash cushion or a nice royalty stream in the subsequent years. We will see at the next earnings release.

3) This one I am not that familiar with but it appears that Blackberry and some other stocks have been really promoted on the site Reddit under the form WSB. Wall Street Bet's is a group of people on Reddit who like to trade and find companies that they feel are on the verge of explosion. "Going to the Moon" I know it sounds insane but this group is approx 1 million followers and they get all in on certain things.

Does anybody follow Wall Street Bet's on Reddit? Any thoughts on this? I have recently seen their posts and I don't know if I should follow, invest, laugh, cry, call a securities regulator. It's crazy!

Sorry about the long post

[Cappy]

I follow WSB from time to time to see what stocks they yammering about.

Every once and a while someone will come on with some decent due diligence on a stock and the whole forum will jump on board. Not just a handful of CPers but truly thousands of people buying large amounts of the stock (YOLOing) which can actually drive the price up pretty good. This creates a perpetual circle of investing-increasing-investing that eventually stops but not until some redditors make some serious cash.

TESLA was one of the first big ones o had seen WSB promote. PLTR was one of the next. GME has been the big one lately as one poster over a year ago posted about the short squeeze opportunity in it. Since it happened over a week ago the whole board is caught up in holding their shares and riding the squeeze (to some great effect). Blackberry is starting to get pumped on the message board lately and I think once GME slows, you could see a shift to BB Unless they move on to something else (SPCE is getting mentioned)

I’ve thrown some money at a couple of their targets. They were in on NIO pretty early (as a cheaper alternative to Tesla) I was in at 3 out at 9...Was late on PLTR and didn’t get a great return. I jumped on MVIS at around 2.50 with some 3.00 options a week before it jumped to 6+. I’ve also went against sentiment a couple times having missed the jump. I bought a long off put on GME hoping it will eventually fall back to its realistic $20 price.

If you can get in and out before a hype train fizzles it’s not a bad strategy with a small portion of your money. Frankly it’s getting too big now with lots of the money made from some big option trading and what they are doing with GME seems suspect. It will be interesting to see what happens with the board after GME

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Cappy

If you can get in and out before a hype train fizzles it’s not a bad strategy with a small portion of your money. Frankly it’s getting too big now with lots of the money made from some big option trading and what they are doing with GME seems suspect. It will be interesting to see what happens with the board after GME

If you are trading, this is a key concept.

Buy the rumor, sell the news. One very hard thing for a lot of new traders is to buy the fear or when nobody is watching. When everybody starts talking about it, you are sitting pretty already. Then sell that fomo and news when it comes out. Or scale out and pay yourself along the way. Always have an exit plan though.

And never invest in pennies, and if you do, go small, providing you have done proper fundamental analysis on the company. Example, I traded IPOC (now CLOV) several times around a core, and kept a few hundred shares of CLOV at 11.2 in my long term, as I like the fundamentals and growth potential. I am essentially riding free money at this point with extremely low risk being in on the average I'm at. Same with DKNG and AMCI for me. But I'd never hold any amount of AMC, as their fundamentals are utter garbage.

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[Zarley]

I wonder if regulators will start taking a look a WSB after the GME drama with Citron last week. Volume on friday was almost 3x the number of shares outstanding. It's certainly entertaining to watch.

Until then, I'll keep riding the momentum of whatever they are pumping (with a small portion of my portfolio - just for fun).

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I wonder if regulators will start taking a look a WSB after the GME drama with Citron last week. Volume on friday was almost 3x the number of shares outstanding. It's certainly entertaining to watch.

Until then, I'll keep riding the momentum of whatever they are pumping (with a small portion of my portfolio - just for fun).

Yeah some of the posts and rhetoric on the GME threads are crazy. Chastising people for selling. Telling them to set the limit price at 420.69. Telling people to call their brokerages and not allow them to use their shares to sell shorts.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I wonder if regulators will start taking a look a WSB after the GME drama with Citron last week. Volume on friday was almost 3x the number of shares outstanding. It's certainly entertaining to watch.

Until then, I'll keep riding the momentum of whatever they are pumping (with a small portion of my portfolio - just for fun).

The regulators can't do much about the gamma squeeze, because that's what this is. I don't think it's a short squeeze, and I'll explain what I mean in a second. What could get the authorities involved at this point though, is the hacking of Citron's accounts and trying to take down their website. Obviously, that's not going to draw positive attention. And then you have Left saying that he and his family were threatened, and of course that should rightly draw the attention of the authorities. Disagreeing with someone's investment thesis is one thing, but threats of physical harm are past the line (obviously!). Of course, if there are players who are willfully manipulating the market, and it can be demonstrated, they're going to have an issue.

A gamma squeeze is when there is a run on out of the money calls, and a market maker (who is selling those calls) wants to hedge that risk. So, naturally they buy the underlying stock. When you have a lot of call volume and those calls expire in a short-time frame, the market makers basically have to cover that potential risk, which makes them buy more shares. You can see how that creates a feedback loop pretty quickly...more shares are bought, which drives up the price of the shares and encourages people to buy more out of the money calls and the MM has to buy more shares. I don't want to bore people, but gamma is the rate of change of delta (which is a metric that reflects how "in the money" or "out of the money" an option is. Gamma is the highest right near the strike price. Anwyay, just think of that feedback loop and look at Tesla over the past year or so or GME this past week and you can get a pretty good idea of what's happening.

A short squeeze is when people who are short a stock have to cover. First, just to make sure we're on the same page, to short a stock you borrow the shares, sell them and have to give the lender the shares back. If you bought them at $10 and the go to $5, you replace those shares and make $5 (just ignore the cost to borrow for this). When you get a short squeeze its a case where people have to cover those short positions because the price has risen, and the flurry of those covering short-sellers boosts the prices even more...which is the squeeze.

In the case of GME, I think it's a gamma squeeze (if anyone cares, and sorry if no one does, but I just find these things fascinating). It could become a short squeeze, and maybe there are some elements, but to me this is driven by options.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Yeah some of the posts and rhetoric on the GME threads are crazy. Chastising people for selling. Telling them to set the limit price at 420.69. Telling people to call their brokerages and not allow them to use their shares to sell shorts.

Stock twits and Twitter and chat rooms are nuts

If you're playing GME now, play w money you're willing to lose, and you better understand how to read the tape.

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