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Old 10-14-2020, 12:37 PM   #21
agulati
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Even if we don't sign any other UFAs for league minimum (I think we do, but still), I'm sure we will see some PTOs being handed out with a chance to win a spot.
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Old 10-14-2020, 08:07 PM   #22
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That's an AAV that's easy to fit under the cap.

Get ready for a full year of Gawdin in the NHL. This guy is gonna be good
I hope he plays solid and chips in 8-10 goals on the 4th line. Then sign him long term at 1.5mil!
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Old 10-14-2020, 08:19 PM   #23
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I think optimistically he replaces Ryan for 1/3rd the price. I like Ryan, but he so needs to be moved for a pick to open cap space and room for Gawdin and Ruzicka. Don't even get me started on Ruzicka!
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:21 PM   #24
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I'm not sure Ruzicka is ready yet (think he can use more time in a top 6 role for the Farm team) but I do think that Gawdin and Phillips are both ready and it's a shame injuries/COVID prevented them from getting a look to end last year.

Gawdin is a bit older but he has put up the following NHLe over the last three seasons:

17/18: WHL - 46
18/19: AHL - 23
19/20: AHL - 35

And Phillips has been impressive too (his development curve before the NHL is almost identical to Gallagher).

17/18: WHL - 39
18/19: AHL - 28
19/20: AHL - 35

In both cases both guys took some time to adapt to the AHL and were playing in a smaller role in their first AHL season, but then showed exactly what you want to see by making a big step and progression in year two in the AHL with close to a PPG.

I hope the Flames can find a league minimum vet to add to the forward group but I hope both guys have a good camp and start with as part of the 13 out of camp.

Dube and Phillips showed some chemistry in Stockton. This could actually be a sneaky good bottom 6 with two home grown RH shots.

Dube - Bennett - Phillips
Lucic - Ryan - Gawdin




Lots of pretty goals in that Phillips highlight real.

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Old 10-15-2020, 05:11 PM   #25
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I'm firmly in the "Gawdin is already an NHLer" camp.
I love prospects as much as the next guy, but you're not already an NHLer until you are. Look at a guy like Nick Shore. Absolutely dominant in the minors, two way play seemed to make him a lock for any team, but just could not produce at this level, even with an opportunity to centre Gaudreau a few years back.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:04 AM   #26
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Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:07 AM   #27
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The fact that the season starts later makes me think we might see some surprises in camp from young players. For example, Jakob Pelletier will be almost 20 and possibly in game shape when the season starts
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:38 AM   #28
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Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.

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Old 10-16-2020, 08:40 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden View Post
Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
I was using it more to show season to season progression as they graduated from junior to pro - but fair point.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:49 AM   #30
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The fact that the season starts later makes me think we might see some surprises in camp from young players. For example, Jakob Pelletier will be almost 20 and possibly in game shape when the season starts
Good point.

Assuming Gawdin plays the fourth line right wing position and we keep Ryan, I wasn't sure who would play the fourth line left wing position. I was thinking of Phillips, but he is right handed. This doesn't necessarily disqualify Phillips because lots of wingers play the off side very successfully, but I wonder if the Flames just decide to make the fourth line left wing position a dog fight between some prospects and Rinaldo:

Pettersen, left handed, 903K;
Pelletier, left handed, 894 K;
Phillips, right handed, 733K; and
Rinaldo, left handed, 700K.

I personally would let Ruzicka continue to develop in the minors as a centre.

I think that could be an interesting storyline in camp, not least because I could easily see one of the above outplaying Lucic and eventually moving the big line down to the fourth line.
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Old 10-16-2020, 09:36 AM   #31
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It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.

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And linemates change, pretty dramatically in junior.
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Old 10-16-2020, 10:06 AM   #32
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It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.

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I don't know about using an overage junior year though. I imagine the mechanics of the NHLe calculation would change dramatically if you only based the calculation on that year for those few players. That was his 5th full year in junior.

It's quite encouraging that his production improved from year 1 to year 2 in the AHL. He will also turn 24 this season so it's time to make a mark in the NHL if it's going to happen for him. The door is wide open for him based on the current depth chart.
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Old 10-16-2020, 10:15 AM   #33
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I don't know about using an overage junior year though. I imagine the mechanics of the NHLe calculation would change dramatically if you only based the calculation on that year for those few players. That was his 5th full year in junior...
I completely agree. Fortunately, Gawdin has played three years of AHL hockey since then which provide us with plenty of data that essentially replaces any relevant numbers from Juniour. SuperMatt's post showed how Gawdin has progressed from Juniour, but it is really only the last season (maybe two?) that concerns us with projecting him at the NHL level today.
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Old 10-16-2020, 10:20 AM   #34
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Where did he come from? Was he one of those invites to rookie camp that turned out? I don’t recall drafting him offhand.
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Old 10-16-2020, 10:22 AM   #35
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Where did he come from? Was he one of those invites to rookie camp that turned out? I don’t recall drafting him offhand.

He was drafted by St.Louis, but they never signed him so Calgary swept him and grabbed him.
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Old 10-16-2020, 11:10 AM   #36
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I know this isn't a thread about Phillips but one thing I noticed with him as a smaller player in comparison to Johnny is that Phillips isn't afraid to get into the corners for puck retrieval and also has no problems driving to the net. And the obvious huge open ice hit which shows he knows how to utilize his lower centre of gravity, something guys like Kane, Point, Gallagher, Domi are also good at.
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Old 10-16-2020, 11:28 AM   #37
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I know this isn't a thread about Phillips but one thing I noticed with him as a smaller player in comparison to Johnny is that Phillips isn't afraid to get into the corners for puck retrieval and also has no problems driving to the net. And the obvious huge open ice hit which shows he knows how to utilize his lower centre of gravity, something guys like Kane, Point, Gallagher, Domi are also good at.
I think that Phillips has got the goods. He and Pelletier are the two players I think are most likely to crack the team in training camp.
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Old 10-16-2020, 12:07 PM   #38
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I completely agree. Fortunately, Gawdin has played three years of AHL hockey since then which provide us with plenty of data that essentially replaces any relevant numbers from Juniour. SuperMatt's post showed how Gawdin has progressed from Juniour, but it is really only the last season (maybe two?) that concerns us with projecting him at the NHL level today.
Just two years of AHL hockey I believe. Less than two full season's worth of games.
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Old 10-16-2020, 12:18 PM   #39
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I think that Phillips has got the goods. He and Pelletier are the two players I think are most likely to crack the team in training camp.
I would agree that Phillips has a serious shot at the main roster (4th line wing). He seems to be more of a game-breaker then Gawdin and not afraid to get dirty.

I think it will be a dog fight between Phillips and Gawdin for the RW and Rinaldo, Pelletier and a walk-in for the LW. I expect that Robinson has the 13th fwd position as he can (in theory) play up and down the lineup.
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