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Old 10-05-2020, 10:55 PM   #1
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Might as well start a new thread with a blast from McKenzie on the eve of the draft

Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
Cup champs TB have let it be known to other teams they aim to be aggressive in offloading ��. How aggressive? Hearing teams have been told only four Bolts are unavailable/untouchable: Vasilevskiy; Hedman; Point; Kucherov. Presumably, RFAs Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, too.

Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
A big reason for moving �� is to be able to sign those young RFAs. Notably absent from untouchable list is captain Steven Stamkos. That doesn’t guarantee Stamkos will be dealt but it’s within realm of possibility though his health could obviously be a factor.

Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
The point is multiple bodies may need to go. Stamkos may or may not end up being one of them, but he doesn’t appear to be exempt from that consideration, as Vasilevskiy, Hedman, Kucherov and Point are. Complicating things is so many teams trying to shed ��. Interesting week.




Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
As @DarrenDreger reported Monday, ARI is shopping Taylor Hall’s UFA rights. We’re also waiting to see if STL makes one final effort to re-sign captain Alex Pietrangelo before he is scheduled to go to the open market at noon ET on Friday.




Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
Although bought-out ex-NYR goalie Henrik Lundqvist is currently UFA, he cannot formalize an agreement until Friday. That said, the word on the street is that WSH is the clear frontrunner for the King’s services on what would presumably be a short-term, bargain contract.

Bob McKenzie
@TSNBobMcKenzie
That would make sense both ways. WSH would get capable vet on affordable deal to platoon/push burgeoning No. 1 Ilya Samsonov, who’s only 23. Lundqvist would get good chance to play decent number of games on a team with a chance to contend. And in the Metro Division, no less. ��
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:59 PM   #2
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You know it's time for a new thread when we reach the peak of "Everyone is Gay"

This thread is now about OEL and only OEL. This is a prayer circle to make sure he goes to Boston. Everyone hold hands and pray with me.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:02 PM   #3
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Looks like McKenzie has been pretty busy.
I can't imagine Stamkos moving. That would be crazy,
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:03 PM   #4
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I will take one Cirelli and one Cernak, please.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:04 PM   #5
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Put me among the people that think the flames should take on bad salaries because this team isn't winning anything in its current state and is another 6 years away from being anything special, this core ain't it. from Johnny being scared to Tkachuk being too over-excited to actually perform in playoffs to Bennett being our best player in each of the last three playoff series... (not a great recipe for success)

What about the current group says we are 1-2 moves away from being relevant as more than a bubble team?

I dunno, maybe im a pessimist but this team has advanced past the first round twice since 89'


mediocre teams stay mediocre always unless they do drastic things.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:05 PM   #6
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Can the bolts retain some of Stampers cap and extract some value for him? Because I can't see many teams lining up to take the full brunt of his deal.

That'd be an interesting option for CGY. But how does one go about working in Stamkos?
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:05 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaster86 View Post
You know it's time for a new thread when we reach the peak of "Everyone is Gay"

This thread is now about OEL and only OEL. This is a prayer circle to make sure he goes to Boston. Everyone hold hands and pray with me.

Nah send him to Van.. Canucks fans are dreading it. and they are right. won't be able to sign hughes and petey if they do it
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:05 PM   #8
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Good luck Tampa. You can say everybody is available but most have a NMC. They just spent 2 months in a bubble and won a cup. Can’t see them waiving anytime soon.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:06 PM   #9
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well, taking on bad contracts is certainly a way to stay mediocre
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:06 PM   #10
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Put me among the people that think the flames should take on bad salaries because this team isn't winning anything in its current state.
So... just you?
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:06 PM   #11
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Sign holtby
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:08 PM   #12
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Nah send him to Van.. Canucks fans are dreading it. and they are right. won't be able to sign hughes and petey if they do it
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:10 PM   #13
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Dude... OEL sorta sucks. He’s the west coast ristolainan
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:12 PM   #14
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Dude... OEL sorta sucks. He’s the west coast ristolainan
I mean... that's a bit unfair to OEL but also, yes. You are correct fellow flames fan. What ever was I thinking.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:18 PM   #15
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I mean... that's a bit unfair to OEL but also, yes. You are correct fellow flames fan. What ever was I thinking.
Lol all fun and games.

But as I wrote that about OEL and Risto I almost feel bad... but not really. I guess I could’ve used wade redden as an example?
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:23 PM   #16
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Continuing our discussion from the last thread.
Quote:
The biggest thing with Holtby is it appears something is causing him to unable to make the high danger saves.

Over the last three seasons:

Holtby:

HDSV%: .806 (54th)
MDSV%: .923 (17th)
LDSV%: .977 (12th)

Holtby Goals Saved Above Expectation Trend: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...296126464?s=21

So the question with Holtby is if the High Danger has something to do with how Washington is playing, or if his athleticism has taken a hit.

Markstrom is a guy that has been a bonafide starter now over the last three seasons but I’m still not sure he’s elite. His best attribute seems to be that he’s consistent.

HDSV: .835 (22nd)
MDSV: .923 (17th)
LDSV: .968 (41st)

Markstrom Goals Saved Above Expectation Thread: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...834898946?s=21

So that is comparing the best three years of Markstroms career vs the worst three years of Holtby’s. Honestly I’d be a bit worried about either guy, Holtby for high danger saves, Markstroms been a guy that’s had some low danger goals against issues for his career.

And based on Moneypuck’s logic they actually had Holtby better than Markstrom in 17-18 and 18-19, they only have Markstrom as better in 19-20 So their is risk either way IMO.
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Call me old fashioned, but the high danger chances don't concern me nearly as much as the low danger goals.

A high danger goal is a golden opportunity. Yeah, you'd like a save there, but it's the best league in the world, and a 10-bell chance is going in the net more often than not.

There's nothing more demoralizing than a weak goal. Teams cannot overcome them.

Some cross-crease sauce to an $8M forward on his off wing that God himself couldn't save never sticks in your craw; a puck that your blind great-aunt could've handled, not so much.

Again, nobody we can get for free on the open market is going to be without flaws.

We have two very strong UFA options, and other fallbacks on the trade market.

Personally, as we have the opportunity to acquire someone who's won championship(s) as a starter, we should not pass that opportunity up. But I do acknowledge there's nothing approaching certainty with any option, be it Murray, Markstrom or Holtby.

To me, Holtby has the best body of work. He's the right age. I think his decline can be explained in large part by the pressure of having to win a championship every year when your captain is Alexander Ovechkin.

He put up .922 in the playoffs two years ago. Not six or seven. Two. That's nothing.
Interesting thing is if you look at the shot mix the Flames give up you can estimate what goalie would be a better fit.

Over the last three seasons Flames have given up:

HDSA: 1375 (4th least)
MDSA: 1510 (19th)
LDSA: 2364 (9th)

Based on Holtby’s numbers the Flames would have given up 437 goals over the last three seasons.

Based on Markstroms numbers over that time they would have given up 419 goals.

So based on the actual shots against the Flames gave up and the save percentage for these goalies Markstrom would have been better by ~18 goals than Holtby. Of course no goalie is playing all the games, so more like 12 goals better if you assume 65% of the starts.

I generally agree with you though. Give me the goalie that saves low danger and medium danger goals but maybe doesn’t make a huge save over the goalie that maybe makes a huge save but let’s in a softy.

Just for reference the Actual Flames goalies gave up 453 goals against.

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Old 10-05-2020, 11:37 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz View Post
Looks like McKenzie has been pretty busy.
I can't imagine Stamkos moving. That would be crazy,
Will be tough with his injury history and contract but I could see it from Tampa’s side.

They just won a cup with him playing one game in the playoffs.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:27 AM   #18
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19th, Mangiapane, Kylington for Stamkos, who says no?

Number 1 centre Flames have been desperate for since Nieuwendyk.

30 years old, 4 more seasons at $8.5 million per.

Gaudreau-Stamkos-Tkachuk
Dube-Monahan-Lindholm
Lucic-Backlund-Bennett
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:34 AM   #19
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19th, Mangiapane, Kylington for Stamkos, who says no?

Number 1 centre Flames have been desperate for since Nieuwendyk.

30 years old, 4 more seasons at $8.5 million per.

Gaudreau-Stamkos-Tkachuk
Dube-Monahan-Lindholm
Lucic-Backlund-Bennett
30 years old and how many major leg injuries?

Broke it clean in two in 2013, tore ligaments in 2016 in the same leg, and missed all of this playoff with another leg injury.

That’s without counting the blood clot issue he had a few years ago.

Love the player, love the cap hit, love the age... but is he going to age like a running back?

And does Stamkos even play centre anymore? Are we asking him to play centre with those legs?

For a Late 1st and some depth pieces, I don’t say no, but there are many flags.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:40 AM   #20
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19th, Mangiapane, Kylington for Stamkos, who says no?

Number 1 centre Flames have been desperate for since Nieuwendyk.

30 years old, 4 more seasons at $8.5 million per.

Gaudreau-Stamkos-Tkachuk
Dube-Monahan-Lindholm
Lucic-Backlund-Bennett
It's certainly a win now move.
If Stamkos can stay healthy, it would make us immediately better; however, it seems like he's just constantly injured, and playing in the West where teams do a lot more traveling most likely won't help.

Also, maybe I'm just overly optimistic about Mangiapane, but he feels like the kind of player the rest of the league is always envious about that Tampa keeps pulling out of thin air (Gourde, Johnson, Palat, Cirelli etc...)
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