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Old 09-10-2020, 12:08 PM   #1
rubecube
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Default Rube's 2020 Degenerate Piece of Garbage Thread (NFL Gambling)

Making a few tweaks to the spreadsheet format this year (I also royally effed up the calculations at the beginning of last year and it threw everything off). Also going to try a "form/snapshot" based system this year.

Anyways, the futures bets I currently like the best based on value are:

DET +500 to win the NFC North
DAL +1473 to win the Super Bowl
DAL +818 to win the NFC Championship
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Old 09-10-2020, 12:33 PM   #2
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Dallas? Right away your spreadsheet is wrong.
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Old 09-10-2020, 12:58 PM   #3
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Dallas? Right away your spreadsheet is wrong.
Dallas had the second-best point differential in the NFC last year and went 0-5 in one-score games. They were much closer to an 11-12 team than an 8 win team by almost every measure, just insanely unlucky. Their secondary is still suspect, but that offense should be lights out if they even get average QB play out of Dak. Even though I'm not a McCarthy fan, he's a big upgrade on Garrett.

Trust me, as an Eagles fan, I hate admitting all of this, but that's a good football team if they can get out of their own way.
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Old 09-10-2020, 01:17 PM   #4
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Lines I like this week:

CAR +3
NE -6.5
BUF -6.5
ATL +2.5
DET -3
MIN -2.5
TB +3.5
DAL -3

Taking KC -10 tonight, which is going against my better judgement. I only say that because I think the lack of preseason is going to hurt offenses for the first few weeks of the year, so I'm wary of double-digit spreads.
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Old 09-11-2020, 01:44 PM   #5
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You survived last night. That damn near ended up a 9 point game if Houston makes that 2 point convert and the Chiefs decide to run out the clock.

Looks like Andy took up betting...he wanted his spread and he needed to the score over 53.
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Old 09-11-2020, 01:50 PM   #6
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Is there anything scarier to a gambler than garbage time? Many a line or over/under ruined.
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Old 09-11-2020, 05:39 PM   #7
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Trying something new this year, playing road dogs money line if my spread for the game is a touchdown or less. Not spending a lot of money on it, but just a bit of a side experiment. Potentially flips the vig on its head a bit.
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Old 09-11-2020, 06:23 PM   #8
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I was saved by the garbage time over last night, so it goes both ways.
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The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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Old 09-13-2020, 02:06 PM   #9
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Fantastic morning fml
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Old 09-13-2020, 06:24 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
Lines I like this week:

CAR +3
NE -6.5
BUF -6.5
ATL +2.5
DET -3
MIN -2.5
TB +3.5
DAL -3

Taking KC -10 tonight, which is going against my better judgement. I only say that because I think the lack of preseason is going to hurt offenses for the first few weeks of the year, so I'm wary of double-digit spreads.
The first week is always tough and without a preseason it is even tougher. I went 6-6 so far today.
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Old 09-13-2020, 09:51 PM   #11
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I went 3-3 today... and that’s all it takes to keep me coming back.
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The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:34 AM   #12
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Packers only -6 vs Lions seems way low.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:01 PM   #13
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Packers only -6 vs Lions seems way low.
Nah, people are overreacting to the Packers blowing out the Vikings in week 1. Lions only lost by a combined 4 points in their two games against the Packers last year, and one of those games was with their 3rd string QB.

EDIT: But I also went 3-7 last week, so don't necessarily listen to me.
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:04 AM   #14
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I was awful until the late Monday night game, took DEN +3 and the over and ended up ahead.

So I decided to make the same last night, Cin +6 and the over and garbage time Joe Burrow got it done!
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:20 AM   #15
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I was awful until the late Monday night game, took DEN +3 and the over and ended up ahead.

So I decided to make the same last night, Cin +6 and the over and garbage time Joe Burrow got it done!
That was a gross backdoor cover.
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Old 09-18-2020, 09:42 AM   #16
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Yep, I also hit on that filthy cover.
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Old 09-18-2020, 10:26 AM   #17
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Week 2 I generally try to spot overreactions from week 1. So far I have:

CIN +6
DAL -4.5
DEN +7.5
PHI ML
BAL -7
NE +4
LAC +8.5
DET +6
TEN -9
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Old 09-18-2020, 01:08 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
Week 2 I generally try to spot overreactions from week 1. So far I have:

CIN +6
DAL -4.5
DEN +7.5
PHI ML
BAL -7
NE +4
LAC +8.5
DET +6
TEN -9
Joe Burrows back door cover FTW!
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Old 09-20-2020, 11:51 AM   #19
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Never take Dallas lol
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Old 09-20-2020, 12:08 PM   #20
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Never take Dallas lol
I saw Dallas -5.5 and knew that was easy money betting on Atlanta. Unfortunately some of my other bets are not looking too good right now. I need Carolina to start putting up some points.

Philly screwed me today. I expected a lot better from them.

Last edited by calgarygeologist; 09-20-2020 at 02:01 PM.
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