Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 10-16-2020, 10:49 AM   #6581
Cheese
Franchise Player
 
Cheese's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Waterloo, Ontario
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashpoint View Post
California has a ballot measure to allow 17 year olds to vote.

https://ballotpedia.org/California_P...endment_(2020)

Hope it passes. Hope it spreads to other states. Most teens donít vote, but Iíd rather have 17 year olds given the chance to move the country forward rather than almost anyone over 80.

Thatís probably ageist of me, but seniors tend to be conservative, religious, and as a consequence anti-choice, anti-civil rights, and generally not in the liberal progressive camp - even though most wonít live to see the consequences of their votes.

Wow, not sure what orifice this was pulled from, maybe based on an Alberta view, certainly not what I see or hear from my age group! Most seniors prefer a left leaning or centrist government to right, in Conservative Alberta that is likely different, but slowly changing.
Cheese is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Cheese For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 10:50 AM   #6582
vegasbound
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Lost in the town hall stuff last night was the Iowa Senate debate. Theresa Greenfield (D) was asked the break even point for a bushel of corn this week. She nailed the question. Joni Ernst was asked for soybeans. She completely failed miserably at answering the question and then blamed it on not hearing the question properly.

I hope Greenfield wins Iowa.
vegasbound is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to vegasbound For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 10:54 AM   #6583
Cecil Terwilliger
That Crazy Guy at the Bus Stop
 
Cecil Terwilliger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Springfield Penitentiary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheese View Post
Wow, not sure what orifice this was pulled from, maybe based on an Alberta view, certainly not what I see or hear from my age group! Most seniors prefer a left leaning or centrist government to right, in Conservative Alberta that is likely different, but slowly changing.
Anecdotal but I used to work with a lot of seniors. MarchHare's claim was 100% true in my experiences. This would've been around 2015-2018 in a wealthy neighborhood in Calgary. I can't imagine their views have changed much. But as that age group shifts and the bigots die off and more liberal people get older, I guess it could be slowly changing.

Although I've noticed that most people I know have gotten far more conservative as they've gotten into old age so it also seems like it might be growing too.
Cecil Terwilliger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 10:56 AM   #6584
rubecube
Franchise Player
 
rubecube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheese View Post
Wow, not sure what orifice this was pulled from, maybe based on an Alberta view, certainly not what I see or hear from my age group! Most seniors prefer a left leaning or centrist government to right, in Conservative Alberta that is likely different, but slowly changing.
Uhhh yeah, the polls/stats everywhere pretty much back the original claim up (at least in Canada, the U.S., and the UK). Conservative parties would never get a sniff at forming governments if it weren't for seniors.
rubecube is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 10:56 AM   #6585
Wastedyouth
Truculent!
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheese View Post
Wow, not sure what orifice this was pulled from, maybe based on an Alberta view, certainly not what I see or hear from my age group! Most seniors prefer a left leaning or centrist government to right, in Conservative Alberta that is likely different, but slowly changing.
My senior aged mother was a long long time Alberta Conservative party supporter.

No longer. UCP has pushed her and many of her friends away from the party.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969 View Post
It's the Law of E=NG. If there was an Edmonton on Mars, it would stink like Uranus.
Wastedyouth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 10:58 AM   #6586
Cheese
Franchise Player
 
Cheese's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Waterloo, Ontario
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger View Post
Anecdotal but I used to work with a lot of seniors. MarchHare's claim was 100% true in my experiences. This would've been around 2015-2018 in a wealthy neighborhood in Calgary. I can't imagine their views have changed much. But as that age group shifts and the bigots die off and more liberal people get older, I guess it could be slowly changing.

Although I've noticed that most people I know have gotten far more conservative as they've gotten into old age so it also seems like it might be growing too.
Thats what I said...
Cheese is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Cheese For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 11:00 AM   #6587
kermitology
It's not easy being green!
 
kermitology's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: In the tubes to Vancouver Island
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger View Post
Although I've noticed that most people I know have gotten far more conservative as they've gotten into old age so it also seems like it might be growing too.
Maybe it's because my parents have moved to BC, but they've gone full to the left and I love it. My parents never talked about how they voted, but they never voted for Rob Anders, I know that. I would have viewed them both as centrists.
__________________
Who are the people in charge of this product and why haven't they been fired?
kermitology is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 11:00 AM   #6588
calgaryred
Franchise Player
 
calgaryred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Chilliwack, B.C
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
Uhhh yeah, the polls/stats everywhere pretty much back the original claim up (at least in Canada, the U.S., and the UK). Conservative parties would never get a sniff at forming governments if it weren't for seniors.
I live around many 20 30 40 50 somethings that vote conservative, yet in the same area I know many seniors that vote left, including my grandma in law who is 95. Depends a lot where you live and the culture in the community.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk
calgaryred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 11:01 AM   #6589
Firebot
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Biden = 87% - up 7 points since October 1st.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Dems = 73% to win Senate majority, up 12 points since October 1st.
My issue with polls, is that the only ones who respond to them are ones which would hit a mindset, and they try to portray a narrative. They are biased in nature of how they are conducted. Since most polls are generally media controlled and most media is left wing, the results tend to be heavily slanted.

A reminder of how 2016 was looking around this time.


Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
538 has flipped Ohio and Iowa to Clinton.

Landslide territory.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Oct 17 2016 had Clinton winning at 88.1%

People are really betting way too much on the polls and I feel like Trump could win and be a shock to everyone...again...to anyone who doesn't realize that large demographic of the population isn't on reddit or on forums and online posters don't necessarily take the time to vote.

Trump wasn't supposed to win in 2016, yet he did.

Last edited by Firebot; 10-16-2020 at 11:03 AM.
Firebot is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Firebot For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 11:11 AM   #6590
rubecube
Franchise Player
 
rubecube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by calgaryred View Post
I live around many 20 30 40 50 somethings that vote conservative, yet in the same area I know many seniors that vote left, including my grandma in law who is 95. Depends a lot where you live and the culture in the community.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk
I didn't say "all seniors vote conservative," but there are far more conservative voters among seniors than younger people.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ting-behavior/

rubecube is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 11:13 AM   #6591
rubecube
Franchise Player
 
rubecube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
My issue with polls, is that the only ones who respond to them are ones which would hit a mindset, and they try to portray a narrative. They are biased in nature of how they are conducted. Since most polls are generally media controlled and most media is left wing, the results tend to be heavily slanted.

A reminder of how 2016 was looking around this time.




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Oct 17 2016 had Clinton winning at 88.1%

People are really betting way too much on the polls and I feel like Trump could win and be a shock to everyone...again...to anyone who doesn't realize that large demographic of the population isn't on reddit or on forums and online posters don't necessarily take the time to vote.

Trump wasn't supposed to win in 2016, yet he did.
This has been explained ad nauseum but we'll try again. The polls were largely bang-on at the national level in 2016. It was at the state level where Trump outperformed his polls, but it was also still within the MoE. He outperformed his polls by about 2% at the state level. Even if he outperforms them by that level again this year, it's still a landslide loss.
rubecube is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to rubecube For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 11:14 AM   #6592
MarchHare
Franchise Player
 
MarchHare's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger View Post
Anecdotal but I used to work with a lot of seniors. MarchHare's claim was 100% true in my experiences. This would've been around 2015-2018 in a wealthy neighborhood in Calgary. I can't imagine their views have changed much. But as that age group shifts and the bigots die off and more liberal people get older, I guess it could be slowly changing.

Although I've noticed that most people I know have gotten far more conservative as they've gotten into old age so it also seems like it might be growing too.
Huh? Do you mean Flashpoint's claim?
MarchHare is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 11:27 AM   #6593
Firebot
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
This has been explained ad nauseum but we'll try again. The polls were largely bang-on at the national level in 2016. It was at the state level where Trump outperformed his polls, but it was also still within the MoE. He outperformed his polls by about 2% at the state level. Even if he outperforms them by that level again this year, it's still a landslide loss.
The polls had Clintons chances of winning Michigan at 78.9%, Wisconsin at 83.5%, Pennsylvania at 77% even by the day of the election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

And on the point of margin of error, that's wrong too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...s-wrong-2017-5

Quote:
Reminiscing on what went wrong just days after the November election, Patrick Murray, the head of Monmouth University's polling institute, a firm that conducts a number of state polls, told Business Insider "polls might not be capable of predicting elections."

Murray's final Pennsylvania poll showed Clinton with a 4-point lead with a 4.9-point margin of error, which still was not big enough to capture the margin — 1.2 points — by which Trump would win the state.
Quote:
His theory for what happened at the time: "Non-response among a major core of Trump voters."
Again, polls are garbage because they only show what it wants to show and using outdated techniques that cater to a specific demographic versus the whole spectrum.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...crush-wildrose

Quote:
'We were wrong': Alberta Election pollsters red-faced as Tories crush Wildrose

Last edited by Firebot; 10-16-2020 at 11:30 AM.
Firebot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 11:31 AM   #6594
Maritime Q-Scout
Ben
 
Maritime Q-Scout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: God's Country (aka Cape Breton Island)
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
My issue with polls, is that the only ones who respond to them are ones which would hit a mindset, and they try to portray a narrative. They are biased in nature of how they are conducted. Since most polls are generally media controlled and most media is left wing, the results tend to be heavily slanted.

A reminder of how 2016 was looking around this time.




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Oct 17 2016 had Clinton winning at 88.1%

People are really betting way too much on the polls and I feel like Trump could win and be a shock to everyone...again...to anyone who doesn't realize that large demographic of the population isn't on reddit or on forums and online posters don't necessarily take the time to vote.

Trump wasn't supposed to win in 2016, yet he did.
That poll projects Clinton to have 48.5% of the vote. She received 48.2% of the vote.

The poll had Trump at 44.9% of the vote. He ended up with 46.1%.

It was within 0.3% for Clinton and 1.2% for Trump.

The poll was bang on accurate.

Looking at the state level. Pennsylvania for example, 538 had Clinton polled at 48.9%, Trump at 45.2%. Clinton actually received 47.5% of the vote (1.4% difference) and Trump 48.2% (a variance of 3%).

I don't see a margin of error listed, but a quick search shows CNN's latest poll has a margin of error of 4%.

It wasn't the polls that were wrong, it was the analysis of the numbers.
__________________
Maritime Q-Scout is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Maritime Q-Scout For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 12:01 PM   #6595
Firebot
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout View Post
Looking at the state level. Pennsylvania for example, 538 had Clinton polled at 48.9%, Trump at 45.2%. Clinton actually received 47.5% of the vote (1.4% difference) and Trump 48.2% (a variance of 3%).

I don't see a margin of error listed, but a quick search shows CNN's latest poll has a margin of error of 4%.
That's a margin of 4.4% percent...that would be above CNN's margin of error for instance.

Again when your margins of errors are so high, and you can't even meet them, what's the point of the polls, when just a 2% shift in popular vote can shift an election completely? You can't predict that a candidate has an 80% change of winning in multiple swing states, and then to be wrong on all of them and pretend to show that the polls still work.

That's why I am stating, polls are meaningless and less accurate each year due to the lack of good data and the choice in how the polling method happens. Obviously pollsters want to explain why these polls are still accuratea and correct, because the premise of accurate polls is how they make money and build a reputation.

I know I have never been polled in my life, have any of you? And I vote every year at every level.

I don't fit the pollster narrative.

Last edited by Firebot; 10-16-2020 at 12:05 PM.
Firebot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 12:06 PM   #6596
Senator Clay Davis
Franchise Player
 
Senator Clay Davis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
Exp:
Default

The two biggest differences in polling between 2016 and this year are the fact there are far fewer undecideds, and that Biden has consistently been at or over 50% whereas Hillary rarely got there. And people actually like or at least respect Biden. Hillary only avoided the least liked candidate in history because Trump was more disliked.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."

Last edited by Senator Clay Davis; 10-16-2020 at 12:11 PM.
Senator Clay Davis is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Senator Clay Davis For This Useful Post:
GGG
Old 10-16-2020, 12:07 PM   #6597
direwolf
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
Exp:
Default

https://twitter.com/user/status/1317098786657689600
direwolf is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to direwolf For This Useful Post:
Old 10-16-2020, 12:26 PM   #6598
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
That's a margin of 4.4% percent...that would be above CNN's margin of error for instance.

Again when your margins of errors are so high, and you can't even meet them, what's the point of the polls, when just a 2% shift in popular vote can shift an election completely? You can't predict that a candidate has an 80% change of winning in multiple swing states, and then to be wrong on all of them and pretend to show that the polls still work.

That's why I am stating, polls are meaningless and less accurate each year due to the lack of good data and the choice in how the polling method happens. Obviously pollsters want to explain why these polls are still accuratea and correct, because the premise of accurate polls is how they make money and build a reputation.

I know I have never been polled in my life, have any of you? And I vote every year at every level.

I don't fit the pollster narrative.
Yes you can, the states arenít independent events they are heavily correlated. It is very unlikely you Win Florida but donít win Pennsylvania. Those would be very unlikely outcomes.

Remember that an 80% chance means that 1 in 5 times the underdog wins. Thatís a lot. Flip a coin twice and get two heads, Trump wins. (Thatís 75% rather than 80%). That isnít meaningless it provides you a good idea of whatís likely to happen.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 12:41 PM   #6599
nfotiu
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
Yes you can, the states arenít independent events they are heavily correlated. It is very unlikely you Win Florida but donít win Pennsylvania. Those would be very unlikely outcomes.

Remember that an 80% chance means that 1 in 5 times the underdog wins. Thatís a lot. Flip a coin twice and get two heads, Trump wins. (Thatís 75% rather than 80%). That isnít meaningless it provides you a good idea of whatís likely to happen.
I think that was the big mistake in 2016 though. The thought was was if Clinton was up a certain % nationally, then it is very unlikely she would lose traditional blue states like WI/MI/PA. But Trump's unique popularity in those states bucked that trend and broke the models.

There's a lot of evidence those 3 states are safe this time around including the 2018 election results.
nfotiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2020, 12:45 PM   #6600
Azure
Had an idea!
 
Azure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube View Post
This has been explained ad nauseum but we'll try again. The polls were largely bang-on at the national level in 2016. It was at the state level where Trump outperformed his polls, but it was also still within the MoE. He outperformed his polls by about 2% at the state level. Even if he outperforms them by that level again this year, it's still a landslide loss.
Also polls can't accurately predict voter turnout.

"Who will you vote for"
"Will you vote"

Does that person actually vote?
Azure is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:05 AM.

Calgary Flames
2019-20




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2016