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Old 10-06-2020, 11:52 AM   #5701
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Has Trump actually done any running the country type work in the last six months? Year?
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Old 10-06-2020, 11:56 AM   #5702
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Odd. Is Trump out of money? While Iowa is looking to likely go to Trump, Ohio is still very tight.
They must have a lot of confidence in their dirt tricks to steal the vote there, so why spend money?
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:12 PM   #5703
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Has Trump actually done any running the country type work in the last six months? Year?
Mostly for the EPA, testing the air quality at his golf courses.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:13 PM   #5704
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I think it's also a case that some of those battles are better-left to other PACs, especially in states like Iowa and Ohio where Trump's brand is a descreasing asset. Let outside PACs attack Biden and rally conservatives around their pet issues, and use Trump in more targetted (cable and social media) ads to his supporters.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:14 PM   #5705
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Odd. Is Trump out of money? While Iowa is looking to likely go to Trump, Ohio is still very tight.
Ohio is unlikely to be a tipping point state. If he wins Pennsylvania he will win Ohio just based on national Trends. So shoring up Ohio doesn’t necessarily make sense as if you are losing Ohio you don’t stand a chance at winning.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:23 PM   #5706
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LeBron is getting out the vote in Ohio.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:29 PM   #5707
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Odd. Is Trump out of money? While Iowa is looking to likely go to Trump, Ohio is still very tight.
There's some speculation that Parscale skimmed from the campaign. The rumours have a specific number of $40 million attached to it though. On top of that, Biden is also out-fundraising him in spectacular fashion so they need to spend their money more intelligently. It sounds like Biden has raised over $700 million in the last two months.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:54 PM   #5708
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Odd. Is Trump out of money? While Iowa is looking to likely go to Trump, Ohio is still very tight.
I suspect the Trump campaign is short of cash, and if so this makes some sense actually. If he loses these states (especially Ohio) he is sunk anyway, and there is no realistic scenario where he wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but loses Iowa and Ohio. It’s the same reason it doesn’t make sense for him to spend limited resources defending Texas or Georgia; by the time those states tip to Biden the election is already over anyway.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:17 PM   #5709
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He's trying to conserve cash so he has some in the bank when he loses. Seriously, the states that gave him the shocking win last election (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) are all but lost. Here are ALL the battle ground states and latest polling from RCP and 270toWin.

Wisconsin - Biden +5.6, Biden +5.6
Florida - Biden +3.5, Biden +2.3
Pennsylvania - Biden +6.5, Biden +7.4
North Carolina - Biden +1.2, Biden +1.6
Michigan - Biden +5.8, Biden +6.8
Arizona - Biden +3.4, Biden +3.5
Minnesota - Biden +9.4, Biden +8.4
Ohio - Biden +1.2, Biden +0.6
Iowa - Biden +0.5, Trump +0.6
Maine - Biden +15.3, Biden +14.4
Virginia - Biden +11, Biden +9.5
Nevada - Biden +5.3, Biden +6.7
New Hampshire - Biden +8.4
Georgia - Biden +0.3, Biden +1.6
Texas - Trump +3.2, Trump +3.0
Colorado - Biden +10, Biden +10
New Mexico - Biden +14.5, Biden +14

Trump's firewall from a humiliating blowout is Texas and Georgia, and one of them has faded away as well.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:21 PM   #5710
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:24 PM   #5711
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
I read somewhere that in Wisconsin, because of gerrymandering, Democrats need to get roughly 65% of the popular vote just to win the state.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:27 PM   #5712
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
I'm no expert, but gerrymandering and urban vs rural don't really matter in the Presidential election on the state level.

For the most part the states are winner take all (a few minor exceptions, Mass, or some stupid state like that breaks it up), but for the most part it's majority rules/gets all of the EC votes.
The urban/rural thing comes up a bit in the # of EC votes a state gets, but on a state level, all you really need to win is 1 more vote.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:27 PM   #5713
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
No. Data collection models are designed to take these variables into consideration. Also, gerrymandering affects down ballot races, not the Presidential race. The thing that could hurt the most is voter suppression tactics, which the Trump administration and the GOP have been very transparent in their attempts. I know a lot of people are going to be looking at 2016 and claiming there will be a repeat, but the polling is way different and Biden has been extremely consistent in the trends. The only hope for Trump is voter suppression, otherwise this is a blowout.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:32 PM   #5714
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
Just quickly scanning Real Clear Politics polls of the key 2016 states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

RCP polling averages:

Pennsylvania: 2016: Clinton +2.1 --- 2020: Biden +6.5
Wisconsin: 2016: Clinton +6.5 --- Biden +5.6
Michigan: 2016: Clinton +3.6 --- Biden + 5.8

I am by no means a polling expert but Biden is clearly showing stronger leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan than Hillary had. Wisconsin shows different. So definitely seems like the leads that Biden have could potentially disappear when the election actually happens.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:34 PM   #5715
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Trump just called off all COVID relief negotiations and the market tanked..

Will he make it to November 3rd?
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:41 PM   #5716
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1313560451784081408
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:41 PM   #5717
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Trump knows he's gonna lose, so keep hurting the market so his buddies can cash in buying low in the meantime.
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:09 PM   #5718
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Doesn't make sense.


https://twitter.com/user/status/1313559949667192833
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:12 PM   #5719
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It does when you remember Trump bankrupted a casino.
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:12 PM   #5720
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So you are suggesting Trump got pumped full of medications and steroids and is now acting even more irrationally? Well I'm totally shocked.
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