Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 04-24-2020, 09:18 PM   #1
Flames0910
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default Calgary Market Predictions?

What do people think will happen with the Calgary real estate market? Right now it almost seems like everything is on pause. But what happens when things get moving again?

On one hand there is...
- likely recession caused by covid-19
- world of pain for Alberta caused by a collapse in oil prices

And on the other there’s
- inflationary effects of government spending
- pent up demand due to social distancing

So where does Calgary real estate land when all is said and done? Would be interested to see where people are at now and where they think things might go.
Flames0910 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2020, 12:58 PM   #2
Calgary14
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Exp:
Default

And not only that, throw in some rock-bottom interest rates to make things interesting. I think prices are on their way down but for how long and how far down is anyone's guess
Calgary14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2020, 03:21 PM   #3
J pold
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2004
Exp:
Default

My wife and have a conditional offer on a house. Optically everything seems great. It's what we need for our growing family in terms of size. We love the location and neighborhood (we live just a few blocks away now) and the price is comfortably within our budget.

All makes sense but then again COVID and the idea of purchasing a home with so much uncertainty seems a bit crazy.

Anyone else having similar thoughts?
__________________
Looking for office space in Calgary? Check out my Calgary commercial real estate thread: here

My LinkedIn Profile
J pold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2020, 08:53 AM   #4
Calgary14
Powerplay Quarterback
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Exp:
Default

I think timeline and affordability are key - is the house something you can live in for the long term and within your budget? If you're a 2 income household and you went down to one income could you still afford it? If so then yeah I think it's a logical move.

What I would be concerned about is potentially the job situation and if your timeline is much shorter (ie. a step up house) but if you can afford it and plan to live there 10 years or more I say go for it. Future house prices are anyone's guess but the key is to find something long term within your budget
Calgary14 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Calgary14 For This Useful Post:
Old 06-01-2020, 09:44 PM   #5
I-Hate-Hulse
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Sector 7-G
Exp:
Default

So what are people's estimates for what housing prices do in Calgary for 2020?

On one hand you have CMHC's report speculating that prices could be down 25% in Alberta. I'd say that 25% is valid for Calgary with it's head office concentration.

Then you have CREB issuing a revised for report Calgary May 1. They report a decline of 2-4% depending on housing type, but don't make a call on where it goes. Lots of stats if you are inclined to drill into these results further (link)

Apologies for the bearish outlook - but my crystal ball estimate are:

- From June to Sept 2020 pricing declines according to CREB's minus 2-4% estimate for detached and attached housing. Apartments decline 5-7%

- In Sept the CEWS wage subsidy ends and a lot of companies counting on it turn to layoffs. Pricing declines on attached/detached over the next 6-12 months from Sept 2020 onwards get to 15% as forced sales increase. Apartment pricing declines 10-25%.

- WFH starts moving people towards larger homes back into the suburbs on the basis of 'bang for your buck'

- Purpose built rentals continue to saturate the apartment market and continue to drive apartment condo pricing downwards.

- A good number of small to medium developers crater, especially those focus on inner city infills and multi-family developments.


Just my guesses. As a person with a rental property I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Would love to hear what people in real estate are seeing.
__________________

Last edited by I-Hate-Hulse; 06-01-2020 at 10:03 PM.
I-Hate-Hulse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2020, 06:49 PM   #6
tkflames
First Line Centre
 
tkflames's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse View Post
So what are people's estimates for what housing prices do in Calgary for 2020?

On one hand you have CMHC's report speculating that prices could be down 25% in Alberta. I'd say that 25% is valid for Calgary with it's head office concentration.

Then you have CREB issuing a revised for report Calgary May 1. They report a decline of 2-4% depending on housing type, but don't make a call on where it goes. Lots of stats if you are inclined to drill into these results further (link)

Apologies for the bearish outlook - but my crystal ball estimate are:

- From June to Sept 2020 pricing declines according to CREB's minus 2-4% estimate for detached and attached housing. Apartments decline 5-7%

- In Sept the CEWS wage subsidy ends and a lot of companies counting on it turn to layoffs. Pricing declines on attached/detached over the next 6-12 months from Sept 2020 onwards get to 15% as forced sales increase. Apartment pricing declines 10-25%.

- WFH starts moving people towards larger homes back into the suburbs on the basis of 'bang for your buck'

- Purpose built rentals continue to saturate the apartment market and continue to drive apartment condo pricing downwards.

- A good number of small to medium developers crater, especially those focus on inner city infills and multi-family developments.


Just my guesses. As a person with a rental property I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Would love to hear what people in real estate are seeing.
I have no data to back this up...only anecdotal evidence of a slightly more positive viewpoint and I am in a similar situation as you.

Only people that cannot afford their homes (and have barely been able to afford them for many years) will actually be forced to sell. This is reflected in the general low quality of detached houses on the market (especially in the inner city and surrounding communities). There are also lot of duplexes, but no one is moving there. Condo owners who would have previously upgraded to duplexes are scared to buy and cant sell their condo. Not a lot of people are moving from a suburb duplex or townhome to an intercity equivalent.

People who dont absolutely have to sell will ride this out. Given that people are not as stretched as they were in the 2009 US and that the associated quality of home is poor for those that are stretched, the median price will just flatline (on quality detached homes). Poor quality homes will drop like a rock because builders cant afford to tear them down and build duplexes that wont sell. In 2009 in the US many had 0% down on really nice homes - when that tanked they pulled every house down.

Condos are screwed unless they are in a highly desirable lifestyle area because the 1-5 year transient people that came in bulk for O&G jobs aren't getting hired anymore.
__________________
Go Flames Go
tkflames is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:36 PM.

Calgary Flames
2019-20




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2016