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Old 10-02-2020, 03:19 PM   #1161
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You just pulled three of the largest tech stocks. We are in a tech bubble right now (atleast I believe so). This just reeks of the 2000 dot com bubble. This is not normal growth and once it subsides and some normalcy returns to the market (ie. people being happy with 5 - 8% growth year over year), these kind of stocks will once again be attractive.

I am likening oil and gas producers similar to tobacco companies in the late 2000's - sure they are going to grow out of favor, face increased scrutiny and maybe lose some initial investors. But if you look at all the tobacco charts, they are still showing great growth and still generating high amounts of cash flow.
We are on the same page.

I agree that the tech stocks are grossly overpriced. I believe that many investors are looking at a very short term view of the world with the pandemic, and making IMO false assumptions. Sure there will be some changes to society because of the pandemic, but human nature has not changed, and many of our old ways will return to what they were. For example we are social beings, and most will end up working together physically. Also with regards to our purchases, we will want to touch, feel, see etc. a great many of the items before we buy them. My son was at Rocky Mountain Co-p the other day and he said most of the people there were returning articles they had purchased on the internet.

As for investing in oil and gas, the stocks have been beaten up so badly that IMO they are, or will become good investments at a certain point. IMO the demand for hydrocarbons, post pandemic, will continue to increase, primarily by the demands of the Third World. Until there is some colossal discovery, hydrocarbons will continue to be the cheapest, most readily available, most dependable, and overall least damaging to the environment, form of energy we have.

Last edited by flamesfever; 10-02-2020 at 03:56 PM.
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:54 PM   #1162
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Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
Money talks - at the end of the day if CNQ is paying a ~$2 sustainable dividend, most retail investors will continue to play. Yes there is a change in investing policy coming through to some of the very large funds, but if CNQ can align their ESG policies to appease those funds (ie. increased carbon capture, new technology, green investment) I can't see how they would not attractive to most.
They gotta have volume or something backing that dividend up
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Old 10-02-2020, 04:12 PM   #1163
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Originally Posted by flamesfever View Post
We are on the same page.

I agree that the tech stocks are grossly overpriced. I believe that many investors are looking at a very short term view of the world with the pandemic, and making IMO false assumptions. Sure there will be some changes to society because of the pandemic, but human nature has not changed, and many of our old ways will return to what they were. For example we are social beings, and most will end up working together physically. Also with regards to our purchases, we will want to touch, feel, see etc. a great many of the items before we buy them. My son was at Rocky Mountain Co-p the other day and he said most of the people there were returning articles they had purchased on the internet.

As for investing in oil and gas, the stocks have been beaten up so badly that IMO they are, or will become good investments at a certain point. IMO the demand for hydrocarbons, post pandemic, will continue to increase, primarily by the demands of the Third World. Until there is some colossal discovery, hydrocarbons will continue to be the cheapest, most readily available, most dependable, and overall least damaging to the environment, form of energy we have.
I haven’t ever met someone who gets use to online shopping and decides they want to go back to the malls!

Almost everyone I know who was forced to online shop now loves it , orders “useless crud” daily , and won’t ever step foot in a store again

Once people get use to buying clothes online and online stores have better augmented reality for clothes shopping now one will leave their houses to shop ever again
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Old 10-03-2020, 01:00 PM   #1164
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I would suggest not investing into O&G long term.

yes, all signs might point to oversold however the overall global sentiment is big shift away from O&G.

Institutional funds are now having mandates to not invest in O&G. Just overall less money into the sector.

.
I have been underweight oil and gas for a long time, because of living in Calgary. However, mandates to not invest in O&G will make the returns better in the industry (and maybe a lot better) in the long run.

There have been two primary issues
1) commodity prices have been in a decade long bear market.
2) consistent funding of marginal projects plus cost over runs has meant business results have been mediocre

Too much drilling with cheap capital (mostly in the US) is the biggest cause of number 1.

So if institutional capital stops flowing into the space, and retail speculative capital is more interested in crypto/tech/weed/gold, there won't be much if any new capital for the industry.

That should mean less new supply, helping prices. But it will also drive down costs across the industry (land, services, etc) and mean that only actually profitable projects get green-lit. Both would be a big help.

The comparison to tobacco someone made above is apt. People will keep using oil and gas for a long time, so if valuations are low and future projects are profitable, that has the potential to cause strong long term returns.

The big oil companies probably have reasonable 5 year returns from here - they probably arent the next Apple, but they aren't the next GoPro either. And at its current valuation I'm definitely skeptical that Apple is the next apple - they need to find a pretty big market to justify that valuation with growth.
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Old 10-07-2020, 01:42 PM   #1165
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anybody get in on MMED.ne yet?
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Old 10-08-2020, 07:45 AM   #1166
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This market is cray cray. I've remained pretty much fully invested the whole year and have pretty much made back all of March losses except in CDZ which has not come back at all.

A couple of my limit orders hit this week so now I have some cash to deploy in the event of a correction. The rest, I'm just going to let it buck like it has all year.
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Old 10-08-2020, 08:30 AM   #1167
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This market is cray cray. I've remained pretty much fully invested the whole year and have pretty much made back all of March losses except in CDZ which has not come back at all.

A couple of my limit orders hit this week so now I have some cash to deploy in the event of a correction. The rest, I'm just going to let it buck like it has all year.
In late September I decided that the last time I was tempted to sell I didn't sell, and that was just before the pandemic hit. I didn't sell then, so I am selling now. I am up 100% from where I was in February. I might miss out on some profit (even with two major flubs). I'm currently at 33% cash, looking at opportunities to sell most of the rest. The only stocks I'm planning on keeping is are my airline, bank, and REIT purchases I've made since March; also my crypto play.

I just left all my tech plays, I usually like tech, but they are too hot now for me.
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Old 10-08-2020, 10:05 AM   #1168
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I'm not smart enough to time the market, but I was feeling a bit overexposed not having any cash.

Switching over to fully self-directed, really forced me to learn a lot about my appetite for risk. I also wasn't prepared at all for how strong FOMO is. Living through the hell that was March has equiped me very well for the future.
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Old 10-09-2020, 09:59 PM   #1169
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In late September I decided that the last time I was tempted to sell I didn't sell, and that was just before the pandemic hit. I didn't sell then, so I am selling now. I am up 100% from where I was in February. I might miss out on some profit (even with two major flubs). I'm currently at 33% cash, looking at opportunities to sell most of the rest. The only stocks I'm planning on keeping is are my airline, bank, and REIT purchases I've made since March; also my crypto play.

I just left all my tech plays, I usually like tech, but they are too hot now for me.
Up 100%???????? Damn!
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Old 10-13-2020, 07:51 AM   #1170
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Up 100%???????? Damn!
It's not as amazing as it sounds lol, people probably made more here at lower %.

1) Due to buying my first house last year, my cash savings were higher than my TSFA. As I was rebuilding my cash savings to a higher level.
2) My TSFA was small (sub 10k)
3) I was heavily invested in tech before the crash

Despite all that I am happy with my moves.

1) Moved cash in March from my cash savings
2) Invested in O&G in March and cashed out in April and May
3) Invested in gold as it rose in Alberta
4) Played some good moves in August/September around earnings reports
5) Also made some on the crypto bump in September

Right now I'm looking at Canadian banks and airlines for returns. My bank play looks pretty close to back to pre-pandemic levels, and my AC investment I don't expect to see anything for a year or two.
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Old 10-14-2020, 05:07 PM   #1171
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Thoughts on ZPAY or something similar to park some cash in? Yeild should be close to 5% after fees.
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Old 10-14-2020, 06:57 PM   #1172
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Canadian banks should do very well as the economy starts coming back.

Bitcoin is moving. I would expect it to keep rising quite a bit.

No reason to not be in on Tesla right now. Doesn't matter what one thinks of what their value SHOULD be, it is a hot stock and might as well get in as soon as possible (should have been a few weeks ago when it was down below $400).
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Old 10-14-2020, 11:15 PM   #1173
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Rupert Resources has had a whale of a year, especially in the past month. It's gone up 10-fold. Doubled in the past month.
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