2022: The year the world returns to war?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yep. Putin's ultimate goal is to make himself look strong and NATO look weak so that Russia looks like a better security option to align with. It's actually better to not invade countries and deal with the rebuilding and occupation if you can just scare them into following you.

I am not saying he definitely won't invade Ukraine, but he would probably prefer to force an Anschluss by making it known they can take if they want.

My thinking also. Maybe he just wants to annex Donbass and will do everything he can including sabre rattling, but not invasion.

[FlamesAddiction]

I would be fine with it if NATO conceded to not allow Ukraine to join the alliance. Honestly, they were not likely to be granted membership within the next 50 years anyway. It's only Russia's aggression that made some people want to lean forward into it. I think there is a strong case to have forced neutrality in some regions, and some countries even ban joining alliances in their own constitutions for that reason.

The problem is that Russia doesn't want Ukraine to be neutral either. They want them under Russian control whether they want it or not. I think in the end, Russia and NATO may just come to an agreement to make Ukraine neutral, but it would only be a matter of time until Russia undermines the government there. They are already flooding parts of Ukraine with Russian settlers to change the demographics more in their favour.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I would be fine with it if NATO conceded to not allow Ukraine to join the alliance. Honestly, they were not likely to be granted membership within the next 50 years anyway. It's only Russia's aggression that made some people want to lean forward into it. I think there is a strong case to have forced neutrality in some regions, and some countries even ban joining alliances in their own constitutions for that reason.

The problem is that Russia doesn't want Ukraine to be neutral either. They want them under Russian control whether they want it or not. I think in the end, Russia and NATO may just come to an agreement to make Ukraine neutral, but it would only be a matter of time until Russia undermines the government there. They are already flooding parts of Ukraine with Russian settlers to change the demographics more in their favour.

I've read a few things saying the Russian birthrate is abysmal, and they don't exactly have an open door policy for immigrants.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I would be fine with it if NATO conceded to not allow Ukraine to join the alliance. Honestly, they were not likely to be granted membership within the next 50 years anyway. .

Why do you say that?

[Azure]

Are we now past the invasion deadline or has the US changed it again?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Why do you say that?

I based it off of something I read a while ago in the New York Times and I only vaguely remember the details, so maybe it's not an opinion with strong facts. They talked about Ukraine having too much internal opposition and NATOs reluctance to inherit another cold conflict (or probably more accurately now, an active conflict). Some NATO members would be really apprehensive about allowing it.

Thinking about it though, I am starting to talk myself out of that opinion considering that Ukraine has been a partner for a while now and some NATO countries are supporting them. I can buy that maybe it would be closer than 50 years.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I've read a few things saying the Russian birthrate is abysmal, and they don't exactly have an open door policy for immigrants.

The demographics of Ukraine are hard to get a finger on. They haven't had a true census since 2001. they had one planned for 2020, but cancelled.

It's also difficult to know how many Russian have settled in Ukraine since the separatists have occupied the regions they hold. Russia has granted Russian passports to much of the population and the border with Russia has been essentially open both ways. Even if there was a census, the separatist regions would probably force a boycott. I also suspect that Ukraine cancelled the last proposed census partly because they wouldn't like what they found.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Azure

Are we now past the invasion deadline or has the US changed it again?

It wasn't really a deadline just what the invasion plans obtained by US intelligence, and shared/cross verified with the Europeans, said the Russian military would start the invasion by. Not like the plans are static and depends on when the CIA managed to get them.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494108266212872199

Hopefully the Russians just back off and look weak or try to invade and there is a huge thaw that traps all their tanks in mud.

[Cheese]

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported at 5pm Kyiv time today that throughout the day of February 17, Russian-terrorist forces opened fire on Ukrainian positions and civilian areas near the front 39 times in total, including at least 30 times with heavy weapons – mortars and artillery. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action throughout the day on February 17.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported at 5pm Kyiv time today that throughout the day of February 17, Russian-terrorist forces opened fire on Ukrainian positions and civilian areas near the front 39 times in total, including at least 30 times with heavy weapons – mortars and artillery. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action throughout the day on February 17.

Holy #### I just had an UNPROFOR flash back

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported at 5pm Kyiv time today that throughout the day of February 17, Russian-terrorist forces opened fire on Ukrainian positions and civilian areas near the front 39 times in total, including at least 30 times with heavy weapons – mortars and artillery. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action throughout the day on February 17.

So does this mean it's happening?

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

So does this mean it's happening?

I get regular updates from the Ukrainian Canadian Congress. There are daily shootings/woundings/deaths, but this is the first time Ive seen the use of heavy weapons for many years. Its likely a precursor.

[FlameOn]

Russia formally accusing Ukraine of genocide of Russian civilians and starting criminal cases for "mass graves" found in Donetsk and Luhansk. Regions they already have control over

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494367081072152576

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494003189905043458

Russians apparently have started shelling Donbas after their casus belli and have hit civilian buildings

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494346636587409410

Deputy PM of Latvia provides intelligence on the locations of the Russian attacks into Ukraine

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494356445088915469

Organization for Security and Co-operation in European monitors in Ukraine have reported over 500 explosives fired into Ukraine overnight.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494386807617867776

[activeStick]

Taking a page from the Americans by alleging genocide to justify action. Pretty savvy by Putin.

[CroFlames]

####. This is not good.

Hopefully the international community responds with such heavy sanctions that Russia must withdraw.

Needless human suffering is so sad to see.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Taking a page from the Americans by alleging genocide to justify action. Pretty savvy by Putin.

Except European/UN monitors that were posted in the region have reported no activity and scrutiny in the area since the last conflict has been extremely tight. With UK/US publishing all their intel too, nothing of the sort has been observed by any party except the Russians State Media. Pretty clear its just pretext. Not that Putin cares what it looks like except to his own population anymore.

[FlameOn]

US expels the second highest Russian diplomat in response to the current situation

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...nt-2022-02-17/

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

US expels the second highest Russian diplomat in response to the current situation

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...nt-2022-02-17/

Other way around...

[FlameOn]

UK formally accusing Russia of fabricating a reason to justify their invasion of Ukraine

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss accused Russia on Thursday of seeking to fabricate a pretext to invade Ukraine after Moscow expressed concerns about escalating military activity in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.

Western countries fear Moscow, which has massed an estimated 150,000 troops near Russia's borders with Ukraine, may try to engineer an escalation of the fighting in eastern Ukraine as an excuse to intervene directly.

"Reports of alleged abnormal military activity by Ukraine in Donbass are a blatant attempt by the Russian government to fabricate pretexts for invasion. This is straight out of the Kremlin playbook," Truss said on Twitter, adding that Britain would "continue to call out Russia's disinformation campaign".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rce=reddit.com

[activeStick]

Putin should ask them if this is like that time they got onboard with the weapons of mass destruction train that the US used to justify their invasion of another country, which would of course make it not exclusively "straight out of the Kremlin playbook"