Enmax fixed vs. floating rates...

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by accord1999

For NG, check your recent winter bills to see how many GJ you normally use during a cold month. As the isolated cost of NG only accounts for 30-40% of the total NG bill (and much less in the summer), and the delivery and regulatory charges are either fixed or only scale with usage (not price of NG), picking the wrong way for fixed vs floating may only cost you $10-$30 in a month. Annoying but probably not budget busting.

This is what I’ve been figuring. Leaving NG floating might only cost me an extra $15 or so even if it climbs up past $5.50 in a rougher winter month (which I’ve heard rumours it will). Is it really worth the effort to switch when I probably make that back right in the spring by staying on floating?

I always heard you never lock in NG and always lock in electricity.

[Hockeyguy15]

You guys know you can change it every 30 days right? So if you lock in now and change your mind you go back on floating.

[Shazam]

I can tell you all my drilling clients are going full out DRILL DRILL DRILL right now.

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by photon

Is ENMAX good? I used to think we didn't have any choices in Chestermere (Direct Energy for gas and Epcor for electricity), but I saw recently that I can get ENMAX.

Seems simpler to get everything under one provider.

They have never done anything "wrong" with me. Unlike Direct Energy who decided to change bills on me. (Gas was more expensive in July than September, so they went back and said I used more gas in July than September so they could change what they billed.)

The one good thing with Enmax is they are owned by the City of Calgary. So the profits go back into the city to a certain extent. I also found the total admin fees to be less with Enmax than when I had it split up.

[RedHot25]

I've been on fixed electricity rate for a fair while now. But floating for gas for just as long.

I just locked in for gas, at the 4.09 other people are noting. Floating comes with a $1 (well 99 cents) extra charge, so current floating (at least on my last bill i think) puts me around fixed anyway.

Biggest reason though is that a lot of people are forecasting quite high natural gas potential costs. See, for instance, Blake Shaffer, an econ/energy (electricity focus I think?) prof:

https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status...77702945378307

https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status...87516432977922

He's saying locking in to both could save you $30/month gas, $50/month electricity (give or take).

Obviously a bit speculative/guess work involved, but like others have said - at least with enmax - you can change 1/month. So you can lock in / lock out to almost your heart's content...

[tvp2003]

Darn. I decided to lock in for gas (have been locked in for electricity for a long time now). However, in doing so I realized I probably won't be able to get back my historical floating rate (which only added 0.49/GJ, not 0.99/GJ) if/when I decide to go back to floating.

Oh well, my usage is pretty negligible during the warmer months, and it'll give me some incentive to keep an eye on rates when our usage will be higher...

[bizaro86]

Locked in gas for $3.79/GJ with Atco. Current AECO gas price is >$5, so seems like a pretty easy win.

[RichieRich]

Just renewed w/ EnMax...
Took my whopping $25 bill credit.

Not paying extra for no "green" energy either...

Moved from floating to fixed gas at $4.09/GJ. My floating was higher.
Any positive offset there is countered by my Electrical rate increasing form 5.79 to 6.59c/kWh.
Then again these rates and their actual effect on my final bill are marginal when considering the real impact of all the riders (admin, distribution, transmission, pool, rate, transaction, wtf, city of calgary, carbon tax). No to mention the gear grinder of them assuming all 90% used water equals wastewater, which is different than stormwater management. OK perhaps 90% is accurate in the winter... but not the summer.



https://www.enmax.com/ForYourHomeSit...ezel=1&IsDlg=1

[GGG]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

Just renewed w/ EnMax...
Took my whopping $25 bill credit.

Not paying extra for no "green" energy either...

Moved from floating to fixed gas at $4.09/GJ. My floating was higher.
Any positive offset there is countered by my Electrical rate increasing form 5.79 to 6.59c/kWh.
Then again these rates and their actual effect on my final bill are marginal when considering the real impact of all the riders (admin, distribution, transmission, pool, rate, transaction, wtf, city of calgary, carbon tax). No to mention the gear grinder of them assuming all 90% used water equals wastewater, which is different than stormwater management. OK perhaps 90% is accurate in the winter... but not the summer.



https://www.enmax.com/ForYourHomeSit...ezel=1&IsDlg=1

Your relative usage to the average Calgarian is what matters for waste water. They could say 45% of water goes to wastewater and then just double the per cube rate. The 90% is probably correct though throughout the year as I would assume in coming up with the number they do metered water out of water treatment and metered water into waste water.

You only get screwed by this calc if your lawn is nicer than your neighbours.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Your relative usage to the average Calgarian is what matters for waste water. They could say 45% of water goes to wastewater and then just double the per cube rate. The 90% is probably correct though throughout the year as I would assume in coming up with the number they do metered water out of water treatment and metered water into waste water.

You only get screwed by this calc if your lawn is nicer than your neighbours.

Not your neighbour's lawn use - citywide lawn use. So multi-family/zero lawn use types are getting a small subsidy from those with lawns.

No other practical way of doing it though.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Locked in gas for $3.79/GJ with Atco. Current AECO gas price is >$5, so seems like a pretty easy win.

Except it's not. Current rate is $2.78. Last month was $3.28. It has been going down for two months now. Unlike electricity buying contracts, with natural gas fixed prices, they always lock you up at a higher rate than the current market price and then you lock and start hoping that the pries go up now. They may go up or down, but if they don't, then for a while, you are paying more than the flexible rate. Natural gas is nearly impossible to store feasibly, so prices are always affected by consumption (low temperatures) and production levels (amount of extracted gas that needs to be distributed). If there's too much gas produced in expectation of cold winter, the prices will go down. And any combination of these two factors thereof.

https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/naturalgasprice

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Except it's not. Current rate is $2.78. Last month was $3.28. It has been going down for two months now. Unlike electricity buying contracts, with natural gas fixed prices, they always lock you up at a higher rate than the current market price and then you lock and start hoping that the pries go up now. They may go up or down, but if they don't, then for a while, you are paying more than the flexible rate. Natural gas is nearly impossible to store feasibly, so prices are always affected by consumption (low temperatures) and production levels (amount of extracted gas that needs to be distributed). If there's too much gas produced in expectation of cold winter, the prices will go down. And any combination of these two factors thereof.

https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/naturalgasprice

AECO daily spot was the price I posted when I posted - obviously its different now. I realize monthly index will be different.

Maybe "easy win" was over doing it, but I'm still pleased with that lock-in, especially given there is no cancel penalty. So if prices head down dramatically I can always switch back.

I think high NYMEX prices will pull AECO up this winter as well.

[CaptainYooh]

I get it. Just saying it’s a pure gamble, no science involved.

[PepsiFree]

I don't see it as too much of a gamble. Looking at my locked in rate through ATCO, I would've come out fairly even to my floating rate over the past year, and I'm told it's likely going to go quite a bit higher in Jan/Feb.

[Cheese]

Im in Ontario, but this relates to all of us. From my buddy who is CEO of a Gas supply company:


Things have been pretty wild in the gas market this year. We've seen some unprecedented pricing primarily driven from crazy high Euro pricing and low production in North America. The short term rates are really high through the winter ($7.00/Gj) and still really high on a 1 year term ($6.00/Gj range). The overall outlook is that pricing should come back down ($4.00/Gj) if we see the winter weather hold off. At this point all weather outlooks are calling for La Nina type conditions with lots of snow but not overly cold temperatures. If that situation holds our model shows pricing dropping back to the $4.00/Gj range and that would make future hedging prices drop accordingly. The advise we've been giving to most of our clients is, if they're not fixed currently, to try and hold out through the big wave we're seeing and try and lock in on the other side once prices come off.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

..,and I'm told it's likely going to go quite a bit higher in Jan/Feb.

Again, nobody can tell you that with any certain knowledge, credible forecasting or authority. Nobody in the past 40-50 years was able to consistently predict natural gas market price movement except for a few spectacular speculating hustles. Locking your gas rates is driven by gambling on the rates going higher when there is momentum evidence of production shortfalls caused by lower demand. But it is always short-lived. In essence, those who prefer to lock, are happier knowing that their rate is not going up and that they don’t have to check it monthly. A peace of mind. But still nothing but a gamble.

To be fair, governments can influence gas pricing increases through taxes and restrictive policies, but if and when they do, all prices go up through added fees.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Again, nobody can tell you that with any certain knowledge, credible forecasting or authority. Nobody in the past 40-50 years was able to consistently predict natural gas market price movement except for a few spectacular speculating hustles. Locking your gas rates is driven by gambling on the rates going higher when there is momentum evidence of production shortfalls caused by lower demand. But it is always short-lived. In essence, those who prefer to lock, are happier knowing that their rate is not going up and that they don’t have to check it monthly. A peace of mind. But still nothing but a gamble.

To be fair, governments can influence gas pricing increases through taxes and restrictive policies, but if and when they do, all prices go up through added fees.

Is the opposite true that staying on floating rates is gambling that rates won’t go up? In general you pay a risk premium for certainty so over the long term you should be better off with floating.

[CaptainYooh]

Of course, it is. The probability of getting heads on every toss is always 50%, no matter how much knowledge you have about the coin, its production, environment in which you toss, your tossing technique etc. The same has been true for predicting natural gas prices– they either go up or down.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Of course, it is. The probability of getting heads on every toss is always 50%, no matter how much knowledge you have about the coin, its production, environment in which you toss, your tossing technique etc. The same has been true for predicting natural gas prices– they either go up or down.

I don’t see either as gambling. Your just selecting a risk profile you are comfortable with.

[CaptainYooh]

Try another analogy. When you invest in a Canadian bank stock, you look at its price history, dividend history, current balance sheet, risk positions that are publicly known, important ratios, comparison to peer banks and then you make an investment. The price you pay is locked. Stock price can still go up or down, but if you have done your research to make an educated guess and purchased on the price weakness, you'd make money sooner. If you had made a wrong guess and purchased on a strength, you will be losing money for a while until the stock price recovers. This would be investing in accordance with your risk profile.

Conversely, we know nothing definitive about the weather coming up, nothing definitive about gas production plans (because the producers don't know about the future weather either), nothing that supports price movements consistently, nothing that helps you make an educated guess on the PROBABILITY of natural gas prices going up or down that is bigger than 50%. That makes it gambling.

Putin owns pretty much the only gas supply line to Germany and he can really influence heating prices over there by closing the taps. But even he doesn't do it because of the severe consequences he'd face from doing that. How could you control and predict gas prices in North America, where gas supplies are pretty much limitless and weather patterns vary vastly? You can't.