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Old 06-28-2018, 11:20 PM   #41
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I think dollar cost averaging is meant more for people trying to get large amounts of cash into the market safely over time rather than as a means of softening the blow of a downer like cjr. Actually, I don't get averaging down at all. I think it's just a way to convince yourself you were not wrong for buying a stock. It's human nature...avoid pain, seek pleasure.
While I generally agree, it matters if you think the market has over-reacted or not, what the inherent value of the stock is, and what the long term health of the company is. The market does act irrationally both positively and negatively so it is possible to take advantage of that either way. In this case when I see the stock price sitting at 1/3 of the book value, I think thatís fallen to an irrational level. But I still donít see this as good long term hold so I would be looking to get out at some point, probably just not right now.
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Old 06-28-2018, 11:55 PM   #42
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I think you're very right in that stocks over react or go through emotional buying and selling. That is certainly what is going on with cjr at the moment. More simply, the farther a stock departs from its trend line the more likely it is to return to it. But I also know that simply buying under valued stocks is not a good strategy. Investor perception of value is what matters, not the actual value. I used to generate a list of the most under valued stocks and follow their returns and it never worked out. I've done the same for the year's biggest losers several times and there is never a return to be found there. It did teach me that stocks can and do go to zero all the time and that breaking downward trend lines is very very difficult.
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Old 06-29-2018, 12:44 AM   #43
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I can't see Corus going to zero. The CRTC will not allow it. They won't let a Canadian content creator like Corus go bankrupt while Netflix flourishes in Canada. There will be consolidation in the industry before that ever happens (or putting a tax on Netflix subscribers to help subsidize Canadian content creators like what they're doing in Quebec). So then the question goes back to Corus' intrinsic worth.

But I still think there is no reason to jump into this name right away.
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Old 06-29-2018, 06:52 AM   #44
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While I generally agree, it matters if you think the market has over-reacted or not, what the inherent value of the stock is, and what the long term health of the company is. The market does act irrationally both positively and negatively so it is possible to take advantage of that either way. In this case when I see the stock price sitting at 1/3 of the book value, I think thatís fallen to an irrational level. But I still donít see this as good long term hold so I would be looking to get out at some point, probably just not right now.
Book value is sometimes a tough metric to evaluate stocks though. You have to consider a few points. How are they depreciating their assets? And really, are you considering the pure book value of these assets or the actual "real" value. An easy way to recognize this is in cases where the company has a significant amount of inventory; is that inventory good, saleable merchandise or is it old stock that should be worth a significant discount to what it normally would be?

Really the question is whether this is a huge discount that no one else has seen and this isn't recognized in the market as a result, or whether it's the real value of the underlying assets. If it's the new value, it's a value trap.
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Old 06-29-2018, 07:18 AM   #45
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I can't see Corus going to zero. The CRTC will not allow it. They won't let a Canadian content creator like Corus go bankrupt while Netflix flourishes in Canada. There will be consolidation in the industry before that ever happens (or putting a tax on Netflix subscribers to help subsidize Canadian content creators like what they're doing in Quebec). So then the question goes back to Corus' intrinsic worth.

But I still think there is no reason to jump into this name right away.
Given the government and Netflix already have a deal that sees the latter spending a half billion dollars on CanCon, I don't think you're going to find much joy in hoping that same government funds Corus in order to stave off Netflix.

More to the point, given how closely intertwined Corus and Shaw still are, if Corus goes under, Shaw will just snap up what few properties matter (i.e.: Global), so there isn't any great cultural need to prevent Corus' demise - if the company can't turn around.
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Old 06-30-2018, 11:33 PM   #46
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I was reading about the AT&T / Time Warner merger and if you crunch the numbers, Time Warner was valued at 15x FCF after accounting for net debt. Obviously, Time Warner is a much larger media/entertainment company but its sale does show that Corus is trading at a substantial discount. There are likely reasons Corus should be discounted: Corus' debt to cash flow ratio is worse (but only slightly, surprisingly), much smaller company, higher payout ratio (even after the div cut), etc. But on the other hand, there are reasons why Corus deserves a premium valuation, such as my belief that Canadian media/entertainment companies will be a protected sector, especially in light of the protectionist policies being pursued by the Americans (although there are people on this forum who clearly do not believe that to be true). But even with a discounted 10x FCF valuation, Corus shares would be valued at around $7. That's a 40% increase from here plus the 5% dividend.

I haven't bought any CJR.B yet and am going to wait. Could be a real good opportunity here if shares trade lower during the summer.
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Old 07-30-2018, 05:30 PM   #47
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This thread has been pretty dead recently, so I'll play a game - critique my portfolio.
Bank of Nova Scotia 14.8%
Amazon 6.7%
Dream Global REIT 5.3%
BCE Inc 5.3%
TD 4.1%
Cominar REIT 3.6%
Enbridge 3.1%
Pegasystems 2.8%
Canadian Tire 2.7%
Alimentation Couche-Tard 2.3%
Canoe Income Fund 2.3%
Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers 2.2%
Dollarama 1.8%
Gluskin Sheff 1.8%
Extendicare 1.4%
Brick Brewing 1.4%
Pizza Pizza REIT 1.7%
Mogo Finance 0.8%
Corus Entertainment 0.7%


All those percents represent the current market value of my portfolio. Future studs? Future losers? I've made some mistakes which I've held onto. The only winner I think has reached its upside is Canadian Tire, so that's a nearer term sell. Open to critique.

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Old 07-30-2018, 08:32 PM   #48
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This thread has been pretty dead recently, so I'll play a game - critique my portfolio.
Bank of Nova Scotia 14.8%
Amazon 6.7%
Dream Global REIT 5.3%
BCE Inc 5.3%
TD 4.1%
Cominar REIT 3.6%
Enbridge 3.1%
Pegasystems 2.8%
Canadian Tire 2.7%
Alimentation Couche-Tard 2.3%
Canoe Income Fund 2.3%
Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers 2.2%
Dollarama 1.8%
Gluskin Sheff 1.8%
Extendicare 1.4%
Brick Brewing 1.4%
Pizza Pizza REIT 1.7%
Mogo Finance 0.8%
Corus Entertainment 0.7%


All those percents represent the current market value of my portfolio. Future studs? Future losers? I've made some mistakes which I've held onto. The only winner I think has reached its upside is Canadian Tire, so that's a nearer term sell. Open to critique.
That adds up to quite a bit less than 100%. What are you hiding from us!

That BNS position looks a little big to me, and if it were me I'd put more into the US/foreign buckets.

****Not financial advice****
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Old 07-30-2018, 08:38 PM   #49
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That adds up to quite a bit less than 100%. What are you hiding from us!

That BNS position looks a little big to me, and if it were me I'd put more into the US/foreign buckets.

****Not financial advice****

Cash holdings account for the rest I guess. I'd ideally put most my money in Amazon, IBM, Apple, Google - companies investing heavily in AI and VR, but with the forex rate what it is, I'm a bit weary of committing a Norbert's Gambit at the moment. Hoping the conversion gets better, but you're right. The Canadian stock market is sooooooo boring.
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Old 07-30-2018, 08:52 PM   #50
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Cash holdings account for the rest I guess. I'd ideally put most my money in Amazon, IBM, Apple, Google - companies investing heavily in AI and VR, but with the forex rate what it is, I'm a bit weary of committing a Norbert's Gambit at the moment. Hoping the conversion gets better, but you're right. The Canadian stock market is sooooooo boring.
I suppose it's good to be diversified but your portfolio bores me!

I have $30K invested in 4 stocks right now, I'd rather be high risk with that amount and lose it all than wait 60 years to gain $10K.

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Old 07-31-2018, 06:17 AM   #51
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I suppose it's good to be diversified but your portfolio bores me!

I have $30K invested in 4 stocks right now, I'd rather be high risk with that amount and lose it all than wait 60 years to gain $10K.

On $30K you would be need an interest rate of 0.5% for a $10K return
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:07 AM   #52
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Anyone else bewildered by the TSLA stories? I don't understand how Musk is not in jail. They sent Martha Stewart to jail FFS!
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:19 AM   #53
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He''s not in jail because it just happened. I'm sure his lawyers are applying a Tesla Powerwall to his testicles right now, for being so stupid. Give it a few weeks, this was a pretty dumb move by him.
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Old 08-10-2018, 10:23 AM   #54
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Anyone else bewildered by the TSLA stories? I don't understand how Musk is not in jail. They sent Martha Stewart to jail FFS!
I definitely wouldn't want to invest in any company he runs with the way he's acting on twitter.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:27 PM   #55
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I definitely wouldn't want to invest in any company he runs with the way he's acting on twitter.
The past success of the company has been all about his vision and his not thinking within the box. The problem is that heís spent a killing and the balance sheet shows a probably disaster looming. His ego appears to have gotten the best of him and now when people are outing it to him and asking him the tough questions heís lashing out. Legit criticism right now. In hindsight how do you not take it private to stay afloat? Theyíre bleeding money and somehow investors keep propping it up. Elon deserves a dose of reality. Stock tanks if heís no longer running things but if heís still at the helm they take a slower death I think.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:55 PM   #56
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I think he thought it would be a crafty way to stick it to the shorters, who he seems to have a major vendetta with. Boost the stock price to $420 and watch them squirm. He probably didn't realize pumping his own stock was illegal.
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Old 08-24-2018, 10:07 AM   #57
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Anyone riding the latest weed wave? Canopy up almost 100% since the news last week. IT doesn't seem to be slowing down. More rumours of large beverage companies taking positions in cannabis is driving the sector higher. Crazy times.
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Old 08-24-2018, 12:47 PM   #58
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Anyone riding the latest weed wave? Canopy up almost 100% since the news last week. IT doesn't seem to be slowing down. More rumours of large beverage companies taking positions in cannabis is driving the sector higher. Crazy times.
I checked on Canopy before I left for Fiji when it was ~$32, and planned on buying when I got back. Came back and went to buy yesterday and couldn't believe the rise. Kicking myself for sure.

Bought Aurora at $8.50 this morning. I figure they'll get a push via those who balk at Canopy's higher share price. Also if QCC and MPX can rally a bit, that'd be greattttt.
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Old 08-24-2018, 02:26 PM   #59
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I bought 2000 shares of Aurora at $7, hope it keeps going up!
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Old 08-24-2018, 02:29 PM   #60
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On $30K you would be need an interest rate of 0.5% for a $10K return
Iím up $5000 in 20 days, my way is more fun.
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