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Old 05-29-2020, 11:16 AM   #1
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Default A Net With No Sure Bets Part 1 - League Tendencies

Part 1 in a three part series looking at the draft for goaltenders.

Part 1 - League Tendencies is linked below.

Next week I'll have a look at how each team has fared, and finally a look into Flames goaltending at the draft.

A Net With No Sure Bets Part 1 - League Tendencies
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Old 05-29-2020, 12:00 PM   #2
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Considering the importance of the position, a 38% hit rate for the first round would suggest drafting a goalie in that round isn't really all that stupid.
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Old 05-29-2020, 12:52 PM   #3
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Considering the importance of the position, a 38% hit rate for the first round would suggest drafting a goalie in that round isn't really all that stupid.
While that is true, the value of drafting a goalie in the first round must also be weighed against the value of those picks for selecting at other positions. Choosing to draft a goalie in Round One also means choosing to forego selecting a forward or a defensemen who could reasonably be a fixture in the lineup within two years.

I tend to think what we are seeing now is the reservation by clubs of their first round capital only for those goalies who appear as close to "sure-things" as possible. Since 2012 only four goalies have been drafted in the first round: Andrei Vasilevsky in 2012, Ilya Samsonov in 2015, Jake Oettinger in 2017 and Spencer Knight in 2019. While a 38% hit-rate looks okay, this will also become balanced against the total ratio of goalies picked relative to other players: four goalies in 243 selections (1.6%) will help to ensure that the hit-rate remains high.

The moral of the story is that a team should only draft a goalie in Round One if they are certain that he will be an impact player. The stakes are much, much lower for drafting forwards and defensemen.
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:14 PM   #4
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While that is true, the value of drafting a goalie in the first round must also be weighed against the value of those picks for selecting at other positions. Choosing to draft a goalie in Round One also means choosing to forego selecting a forward or a defensemen who could reasonably be a fixture in the lineup within two years.

I tend to think what we are seeing now is the reservation by clubs of their first round capital only for those goalies who appear as close to "sure-things" as possible. Since 2012 only four goalies have been drafted in the first round: Andrei Vasilevsky in 2012, Ilya Samsonov in 2015, Jake Oettinger in 2017 and Spencer Knight in 2019. While a 38% hit-rate looks okay, this will also become balanced against the total ratio of goalies picked relative to other players: four goalies in 243 selections (1.6%) will help to ensure that the hit-rate remains high.

The moral of the story is that a team should only draft a goalie in Round One if they are certain that he will be an impact player. The stakes are much, much lower for drafting forwards and defensemen.
Yeah you almost need to use a first round pick if you really want to draft a goalie, but the hit rate is concerning.

If you think you're getting a top pairing defenseman but he turns out to be a third pairing powerplay specialist you still have value.

But with a goalie if you don't get a starter you don't have much value. There are too many goaltenders floating around that can back up to waste a pick on a guy that may not be your starter.
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:22 PM   #5
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Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:46 PM   #6
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Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
Since the last full lockout:
2019: STL (Binnington) - drafted in 3rd round
2018: WSH (Holtby) - drafted in 4th round
2017: PIT (Fleury) - drafted 1st overall
2016: PIT (Murray) - drafted in 3rd round
2015: CHI (Crawford) - drafted in 2nd round
2014: LA (Quick) - drafted in 3rd round
2013: CHI (Crawford) - drafted in 2nd round
2012: LA (Quick) - drafted in 3rd round
2011: BOS (Thomas) - free agent
2010: CHI (Niemi) - free agent
2009: PIT (Fleury) - drafted 1st overall
2008: DET (Osgood) - drafted in 3rd round (but reacquired)
2007: ANA (Giguere) - trade
2006 CAR (Ward) - drafted in 1st round
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Old 05-29-2020, 02:17 PM   #7
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Here is the first round data set sorted by the adjusted games played factor and draft points

Code:
Year	Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	GP	GPP/DY	Category	Draft Pts
2003	1	1	PIT	MA Fleury	847	56.5	Elite	10
2002	1	25	CAR	Cam Ward	701	46.7	Elite	10
2005	1	5	MTL	Carey Price	682	45.5	Elite	10
2002	1	2	WPG	Kari Lehtonen	649	43.3	Elite	10
2005	1	21	TOR	Tuukka Rask	536	35.7	Elite	10
2006	1	23	WAS	S.Varlamov	493	35.2	Elite	10
2004	1	14	EDM	Devan Dubnyk	520	34.7	Elite	10
2012	1	19	TBY	A. Vasilevskiy	259	32.4	Elite	10
2004	1	26	VAN	Cory Schneider	409	27.3	Starter	7
2006	1	11	LAK	J. Bernier	370	26.4	Starter	7
2000	1	1	NYI	Rick DiPietro	318	21.2	Starter	7
2001	1	8	CBS	Pascal Leclaire	173	11.5	Played	4
2004	1	6	NYR	Al Montoya	168	11.2	Played	4
2012	1	24	BOS	Malcolm Subban	66	8.3	Cup of Joe	2
2010	1	11	DAL	Jack Campbell	64	6.4	Cup of Joe	2
2015	1	22	WAS	Ilya Samsonov	26	5.2	Cup of Joe	2
2001	1	10	NYR	Dan Blackburn	63	4.2	Cup of Joe	2
2002	1	29	BOS	Hannu Toivonen	61	4.1	Cup of Joe	2
2001	1	26	DAL	J. Bacashihua	38	2.5	Cup of Joe	2
2001	1	29	CHI	Adam Munro	17	1.1	Cup of Joe	2
2006	1	26	CGY	Leland Irving	13	0.9	Bust	0
2004	1	17	STL	Marek Schwarz	6	0.4	Bust	0
2008	1	30	DET	Tom McCollum	3	0.3	Bust	0
2010	1	27	ARI	Mark Visentin	1	0.1	Bust	0
2006	1	15	TBY	Riku Helenius	1	0.1	Bust	0
2000	1	9	CGY	Brent Krahn	1	0.1	Bust	0
2008	1	18	NAS	Chet Pickard		0.0	Bust	0
2019	1	13	FLA	Spencer Knight		0.0	Developing	0
2017	1	26	DAL	Jake Oettinger		0.0	Developing	0
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Old 05-29-2020, 03:39 PM   #8
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It would be interesting to see similar numbers for undrafted goalies too because they aren't an insignificant percentage of the total number of goalies.

This season, 87 goalies have played at least one game in the NHL, and undrafted goalies are the third largest group:
  • 15 undrafted
  • 11 first round
  • 16 second round
  • 17 third round
  • 7 fourth round
  • 8 fifth round
  • 5 sixth round
  • 5 seventh round
  • 1 eighth round
  • 2 ninth round
If you included the 8th and 9th rounds, which no longer exist, the "not drafted in the first 7 rounds" group is bigger than any single round.

In fact, 2 teams (Calgary and San Jose) did not play a drafted goalie in any game this season.
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Old 05-29-2020, 04:48 PM   #9
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Talbot wasn’t drafted?
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Old 05-29-2020, 07:15 PM   #10
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Talbot wasn’t drafted?
No. The Rangers signed him as a free agent after three years at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.

Interestingly enough, last week, UAH announced that they were going to shut down their hockey program due to lack of funding. Today, they announced that thanks to a GoFundMe campaign supported by Talbot and others, they were able to raise enough funds to keep the program alive.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1266089644451672064
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Old 05-30-2020, 12:44 AM   #11
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Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
Low Hanging Fruit;

Vernon, Mike
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:05 AM   #12
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Games played by Calgary Flames drafted goalies:

1. Vernon: 781
2. Anderson: 614 (unsigned and re-entered draft)
3. Kidd: 387
4. McElhinney: 237
5. Brossoit: 68
6. Muzzati: 62
7. Sabourin: 57
8. Trefilov: 54
9. Ortio: 37
10. Irving: 13
11. Gilles: 12
12. A handful of others: 1

So after Calgary’s first ever goalie pick panning out the next best is a late bloomer who they didn’t sign, three backups, and then we are in half season to cup of coffee territory. Sad. You’d think if they’d just spend every 10th pick on the highest ranked central scouting goalie they’d have better luck.
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Old 05-30-2020, 09:40 AM   #13
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Games played by Calgary Flames drafted goalies:

1. Vernon: 781
2. Anderson: 614 (unsigned and re-entered draft)
3. Kidd: 387
4. McElhinney: 237
5. Brossoit: 68
6. Muzzati: 62
7. Sabourin: 57
8. Trefilov: 54
9. Ortio: 37
10. Irving: 13
11. Gilles: 12
12. A handful of others: 1

So after Calgary’s first ever goalie pick panning out the next best is a late bloomer who they didn’t sign, three backups, and then we are in half season to cup of coffee territory. Sad. You’d think if they’d just spend every 10th pick on the highest ranked central scouting goalie they’d have better luck.
I still think Kidd would have been a good goalie were it not for his season-ending injury in 1999. He was never the same after that.

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