[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[dino7c]

Why is Skinner even being talked about? he won't even be on the team in year one of the deal we are discussing. That is the whole point.

The by far most likely scenario is they don't win the cup this year and have to clear cap space next summer to fit in 10M or so in raises. If you don't think Oiler fans and management will be sweating at that point IDK what to say. Then the following year it gets even tougher to bring back the same team that...didn't win and is older.

Even if they are "cup favourites" which I disagree with it is still unlikely they actually win the cup this season and then we are in for the ride of our lives as Flames fans as they slowly fall away and try to do something with McDrai in their 30s that they couldn't do in their 20s while being paid less of the cap %.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Yes
Arvidsson should be good for them, both weeks worth of games he plays

Games missed by Arvidsson:

2016-17 - 2
2017-18 - 4
2018-19 - 24
2019-20 - 12
2020-21 - 6
2021-22 - 16
2022-23 - 5
2023-24 - 64

In 4 of the last 8 seasons, he's missed a handful of games.

In 2 of the last 8 seasons, he has missed a month.

In 1 of the last 8 seasons, he has missed 2 months.

In 1 of the last 8 seasons, he has missed almost the entire year.

Place your bets on how many games he misses. Because chances are ~75% that he misses less than a month.

These are facts. But there are posters in this community who are allergic to them.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

Unfortunately for us I'm of the opinion he will still be one of the top players when he's that age. I've always thought his game would age well, better than McDavid's even (although last playoffs may have changed my mind) as he isn't reliant on the blazing speed.

Won't matter though as I'm also of the opinion there aren't enough smart people up there to fill out the rest of the team effectively. They haven't proven otherwise for years and I haven't seen anything to suggest that will change.

Well he would be bucking a major trend if he's able to still be a top player in the league past 32. He may still be very good, but he's not going to put up ungodly point totals (along with McDavid) consistently every season for more than 3 more seasons.

If the Oilers don't win a cup in the next year or two they are in deep kaka with these contracts and extensions kicking in. The way they are built, they simply won't be able to compete with the heavy's with their two star forwards being good-very good while eating up 30% of the cap.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why is Skinner even being talked about? he won't even be on the team in year one of the deal we are discussing. That is the whole point.

The by far most likely scenario is they don't win the cup this year and have to clear cap space next summer to fit in 10M or so in raises. If you don't think Oiler fans and management will be sweating at that point IDK what to say. Then the following year it gets even tougher to bring back the same team that...didn't win and is older.

Even if they are "cup favourites" which I disagree with it is still unlikely they actually win the cup this season and then we are in for the ride of our lives as Flames fans as they slowly fall away and try to do something with McDrai in their 30s that they couldn't do in their 20s while being paid less of the cap %.

How many times did Washington keep bringing back the same core before Ovechkin won the Cup?

Silly argument. Just because you don't win one year doesn't mean you can't win with the same team. It's all relative to the rest of the league.

[Robbob]

The guy is coming off back surgery in his 30s. That is a bit of a risk.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Robbob

The guy is coming off back surgery in his 30s. That is a bit of a risk.

This is correct and a real risk.

But anyway- this thread is about Draisaitl's contract and I believe it will age just fine.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

How many times did Washington keep bringing back the same core before Ovechkin won the Cup?

Silly argument. Just because you don't win one year doesn't mean you can't win with the same team. It's all relative to the rest of the league.

The caps were a deep team and not the oldest team in the league either

The Oilers will be bring back a worse team not the same team...you are the one going on about Skinner and Arvidson. You also said Ekholm is their best defender, he will turn 35 this season. The idea that the Oilers have a 4-5 year window is fan fiction.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Would you say that if Los Angeles beat them in the first round? Or if the Canucks didn’t choke?

Just curious.

Yeah,

Kind of like the flames discussion around Johnny and Tkachuk or the last 3 years of the Iggy era. We probably weren’t going to win but you tank and build to get to these 8 good years of 24-32. It seems really weird to punt before they are up. Like what’s the point of cheering for your team if the only time they try to win is if conditions are perfect.

The years of 33-36 don’t matter because you are rebuilding then anyway.

[Eubee]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The caps were a deep team and not the oldest team in the league either

The Oilers will be bring back a worse team not the same team...you are the one going on about Skinner and Arvidson. You also said Ekholm is their best defender, he will turn 35 this season. The idea that the Oilers have a 4-5 year window is fan fiction.

And they had, you know, things called draft picks.

[dino7c]

Oilers best defender (on a bad defence) is 35 this season...they have no prospects especially at D

Oilers do not have a 4-5 year cup window. Its cup or bust

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Eubee

And they had, you know, things called draft picks.

to go along with defence, goaltending, prospects, ect.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

How many times did Washington keep bringing back the same core before Ovechkin won the Cup?

Silly argument. Just because you don't win one year doesn't mean you can't win with the same team. It's all relative to the rest of the league.

Not disputing this fact but the Capitals cup win is actually an interesting one to look at when it comes to the Oilers roster build.

Lets say Ovechkin / Backstrom / Carlson / Oshie are your McDavid / Draisaitl / Bouchard / Hyman ... very similar ages when they won to what the Oilers will be over the next 2 seasons.

Niskanen/Orpik kind of brought the veteran leadership on that d-core that Ekholm brought in. Skinner and Holtby are similar ages but Holtby was much more proven at that time.

But what pushed that Washington team over the top was the younger guys they had that started to create another layer of success:

Orlov: 26
Kuznetsov: 25
Connolly: 25
Smith Pelley: 25
Wilson: 23
Stephenson: 23
Burakovsky: 22
Vrana: 21

It was the younger bodies they were able to add to the veteran core that finally got them over the hump.

It was the same thing with the Penguins second and third cups.

Crosby / Malkin / Letang / Kessel were kind of the McDavid / Draisaitl / Bouchard / Hyman equivalents.

But what pushed those teams over the top were:

Cole: 26
Rust: 23
Sheary: 23
Dumoulin: 23
Maatta: 21
Guentzel: 21

When I look at the Oilers roster they traded/lost their similar pieces who were under 27 years old...McLeod, Broberg, Holloway, Foegele are all gone. The only pieces under 27 that look remotely close to bringing what those names brought for Washington are Bouchard (who I already included as part of the core) and Savoie (if he pans out).

Since drafting McDavid in 2015 here are the Oilers skaters (non-goalies) taken in the top 2 rounds with the ones that remain with the organization in bold:

Puljujarvi, Benson, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Mcleod, Broberg, Lavoie, Holloway, Bourgault, Schaefer, Akey, O'Reilly

8/12 are gone.

Re-signing Draisaitl and McDavid isn't going to hurt the Oilers, what will hurt the Oilers is the pipeline to fill out the roster is completely dry, and not just because they lack picks now, but because the picks they made from 2016-2024 aren't going to help either outside of Bouchard and maybe one of the other guys (O'Reilly, Lavoie, Akey)

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The caps were a deep team and not the oldest team in the league either

The Oilers will be bring back a worse team not the same team...you are the one going on about Skinner and Arvidson. You also said Ekholm is their best defender, he will turn 35 this season. The idea that the Oilers have a 4-5 year window is fan fiction.

Go through my posts. I have repeatedly said they have a 2 year window.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Go through my posts. I have repeatedly said they have a 2 year window.

so 1 year window during this contract lol
this is the hill you are dying on?

And others have said 4-5 year window which is laughable, glad you agree

[curves2000]

I don't know if this contract overall is a big problem but the value add to his previous contract was high. I don't know if any player is really worth a contact of that size but on the other hand a player like Leon is a massive star and he does bring in a boat load of actual dollars to ownership through merchandise sales, sponsors, ticket sales and more.

It is tough to justify trading away star players who still contribute to a very high degree in exchange for picks and prospects. Leon did earn a large contract increase AAV wise. I don't know if this really helps the Oilers as you can't really expect MORE production out of a high producer like Leon but such is life, every team deals with it.

The Flames in recent memory (2015) went the furthest playoff wise when our top players like Johnny (RIP) Monny and Gio were making a combined total of approx $6 million AAV.

Fast forward a little bit and everybody is making $320% more combined and we still can't get as far.

It's a theme in the NHL in a lot of ways. The top paid players league wide really haven't won a championship during their highest paid years. I may be wrong but I don't think a player with an AAV over $10 has won a cup in the cap era?

Taves/Kane never won with their $10.5 cap hits
Mcdavid, Mathews, Marner, Nylander, Petterson, Mackinnon and more have not won with their respective high AAV cap hits.

Bottom line in the NHL, if you really wanna win, stay away from top contracts and cap hits over $10 million. It's unique that the highest paid stars in the NHL just haven't won.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

How many times did Washington keep bringing back the same core before Ovechkin won the Cup?

When WSH won in 2018, they had 7 guys who had turned 30:

Orpic: 37
Ovechkin 32
Beagle 32
Chorney 31
Niskanen 31
Oshie 31
Backstrom 30

If the Oilers were to win the cup THIS YEAR, they would have 16 - SIXTEEN - guys over 30:

Perry 40
Ryan 38
Ekholm 35
Henrique 35
Hyman 33
Kane 33
Skinner 33
Pickard 33
Janmark 32
RNH 32
Arvidsson 32
C Brown 31
Kulak 31
Stecher 31
J Brown 31
Nurse 30

If we drop Orpic and Perry as the outliers, the Oilers would have 7 guys older than the (next) oldest player on the Caps. Seven. 75% of their team would be in their 30s. That's if they win THIS year.

Their window may still be open, but barely.

(all ages for both teams are as of June of that year i.e. when the cup is won)

[Enoch Root]

And not only would 16 guys have already celebrated their 30th birthday (unprecedented), but they have gotten smaller and slower and less physical than last year's team.

Anyone who thinks this team is improved, is crazy.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

Unfortunately for us I'm of the opinion he will still be one of the top players when he's that age. I've always thought his game would age well, better than McDavid's even (although last playoffs may have changed my mind) as he isn't reliant on the blazing speed.

Won't matter though as I'm also of the opinion there aren't enough smart people up there to fill out the rest of the team effectively. They haven't proven otherwise for years and I haven't seen anything to suggest that will change.

Typically its players with amazing vision who's game ages the best, as they aren't as reliant on their physical attributes. Draisaitl's game is based upon a combo of speed and his size. And while Draisaitl isn't as fast as McDavid, he still relies on his skating a lot, and he will get slower. Draisaitl will also lose the ability to lean into and power through defenders as he gets older.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Also- why people are glossing over the fact that he VASTLY outperformed his last $8.5M AAV contract so obviously he is recouping some of that from his employer.

In other words, you admit he's not worth $14 million a year on the new contract, but is getting the money out of pity because he was underpaid before?

Good one.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

This is a business. McDavid and Draisaitl sell tickets, jerseys, merchandise, ad revenue, tv deals etc.

Apart from tickets, most of that money goes to the league, not the team. Those guys will make money for the league wherever they play.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And not only would 16 guys have already celebrated their 30th birthday (unprecedented), but they have gotten smaller and slower and less physical than last year's team.

Anyone who thinks this team is improved, is crazy.

I suppose there are a few things that are true about this situation:
- this team is older and not at all better than last year’s team
- there really is no way Edmonton could not have signed Draisaitl from a PR or McDavid standpoint
- this signing will look just fine for a couple of years
- it’s probably a fair contract that pretty much equals what he would have gotten in free agency (14x8=16x7)
- they probably should have deferred 104M to year 9