Let's talk Box Office

[Sr. Mints]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Do people really care about Star Wars and Frozen though? Disney needs to produce Man of the House 2 if it really wants to set records.

To Story 4 essentially bombed* and I thought it would have made a bazillion dollars by now, so what do I know.

But I reckon my very little girl from here to Timbuktu is going to line up for Frozen

*by Disney standards

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Sr. Mints

To Story 4 essentially bombed* and I thought it would have made a bazillion dollars by now, so what do I know.

But I reckon my very little girl from here to Timbuktu is going to line up for Frozen

*by Disney standards

It actually had decent legs and is pretty much in line with what was expected after Toy Story 3.

Toy Story 3 (168 days in release)
Domestic: $415M
International: $651
Total: $1.066B

Toy Story 4: (40 days in release)
Domestic: $400M
International: $523M
Total: $923M

So pretty much in-line with what was expected for it. And really Disney did themselves no favours with their release calendar this summer having three 90s kid classics jammed into a short window.

Aladdin - May 24th
Toy Story - June 21st
Lion King - July 19th

Three of my favourite franchises as a kid, I personally want to see all three, but due to busy summer months and decent weather I have only been able to make it to Aladdin so far.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It actually had decent legs and is pretty much in line with what was expected after Toy Story 3.

Toy Story 3 (168 days in release)
Domestic: $415M
International: $651
Total: $1.066B

Toy Story 4: (40 days in release)
Domestic: $400M
International: $523M
Total: $923M

So pretty much in-line with what was expected for it. And really Disney did themselves no favours with their release calendar this summer having three 90s kid classics jammed into a short window.

Aladdin - May 24th
Toy Story - June 21st
Lion King - July 19th

This is a mistake they seem to be making more and more frequently lately, to the point where it makes me wonder if they're doing it to expedite the rest of their brands with the cruise ships and theme parks.

Because they're cannibalizing their own revenues which makes no sense unless theres an ulterior motive.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Locke

This is a mistake they seem to be making more and more frequently lately, to the point where it makes me wonder if they're doing it to expedite the rest of their brands with the cruise ships and theme parks.

Because they're cannibalizing their own revenues which makes no sense unless theres an ulterior motive.

These classic brands are already all over the theme parks but that is possible. Disney+ is the more likely reason I think though.

Release a bunch of movies this year in theatres...then launch a bunch of "Only/First on Disney+" in-home releases next year.

Get that subscriber base up day 1.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It actually had decent legs and is pretty much in line with what was expected after Toy Story 3.

Toy Story 3 (168 days in release)
Domestic: $415M
International: $651
Total: $1.066B

Toy Story 4: (40 days in release)
Domestic: $400M
International: $523M
Total: $923M

So pretty much in-line with what was expected for it. And really Disney did themselves no favours with their release calendar this summer having three 90s kid classics jammed into a short window.

Aladdin - May 24th
Toy Story - June 21st
Lion King - July 19th

Three of my favourite franchises as a kid, I personally want to see all three, but due to busy summer months and decent weather I have only been able to make it to Aladdin so far.

They had to if they want more recent blockbuster content for Disney+

[Locke]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Disney+ is all I could think.

Release a bunch of movies this year in theatres...then launch a bunch of "Only/First on Disney+" in-home releases next year.

Get that subscriber base up day 1.

i was thinking along those lines as well, but something doesnt add up for me.

They've got enough content already to basically guarantee subscribers from Day 1, whats the marginal benefit of adding these films? Will it exceed box office revenues they would have received if they staggered the films more?

It doesnt seem like it on the face of it.

[TheyCallMeBruce]

Originally Posted by Locke

i was thinking along those lines as well, but something doesnt add up for me.

They've got enough content already to basically guarantee subscribers from Day 1, whats the marginal benefit of adding these films? Will it exceed box office revenues they would have received if they staggered the films more?

It doesnt seem like it on the face of it.

The biggest complaint right now is that they actually don't have a lot of new content. mandalorian is the only new show that will be there on day 1. Falcon and the winter soldier isn't until fall of 2020, and so on. So yes, they do have lots of older IP, but their newer stuff is a bit lean.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It actually had decent legs and is pretty much in line with what was expected after Toy Story 3.

Toy Story 3 (168 days in release)
Domestic: $415M
International: $651
Total: $1.066B

Toy Story 4: (40 days in release)
Domestic: $400M
International: $523M
Total: $923M

So pretty much in-line with what was expected for it. And really Disney did themselves no favours with their release calendar this summer having three 90s kid classics jammed into a short window.

Aladdin - May 24th
Toy Story - June 21st
Lion King - July 19th

Three of my favourite franchises as a kid, I personally want to see all three, but due to busy summer months and decent weather I have only been able to make it to Aladdin so far.

Toy Story 4 wasn't a bomb, but it fell below expectations. It was expected to open at $140 million, but came in just under $120 million. A Toy Story movie is always going to have good legs, so the total was presumably proportionally lowered by the $140 expectation vs $120 actual.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by TheyCallMeBruce

The biggest complaint right now is that they actually don't have a lot of new content. mandalorian is the only new show that will be there on day 1. Falcon and the winter soldier isn't until fall of 2020, and so on. So yes, they do have lots of older IP, but their newer stuff is a bit lean.

Who needs new Disney Content?

Disney is basically a modern day equivalent of:

NSFW!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Locke

Who needs new Disney Content?

Disney is basically a modern day equivalent of:

Don't disagree as I personally think a lot of people (especially young families) would subscribe for just the animation back catalog but think the big thing for them was getting more live action and adult focused content on Disney+.

Don't think they wanted to launch with people thinking "Disney+ is just animation" or "just for kids"

Think the Fox acquisition was a big part of that too.

So you piece all these things together and it gives them a big back catalog of more of the Fox live action/adult content, they have all the recent Marvel/Star Wars movies, plus then they can pump out all these new blockbuster live action Disney films as "First on Disney+" next year.

[Strange Brew]

I think there’s no doubt this recent push is driven by Disney+. The amount of content at launch will be more impactful than the titles that get added over time.

But IMO it’s the original content that will be a big driver for many people, including our family. Take away the new Marvel shows and my kids would have a big shrug about a Disney+.

[Nadal Fan]

Hobbs and Shaw wins the weekend with only $60 mill. With Star Wars and Frozen 2 still to come, Disney could finish the year having the top 8 grossing films of the year. I count Spider-Man as Disney as it's MCU , but outside that , what film do you think has a chance to break out and finish ahead of some Disney films to enter the top 8??

[KTrain]

I doubt it will crack the Top 10 for the year but I suspect IT Chapter 2 will have a big opening. The first did $120+ million on the opening weekend. There's some hype around this one and all the people who watched it after the theatres could boost the theatre numbers.

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

Hobbs and Shaw wins the weekend with only $60 mill. With Star Wars and Frozen 2 still to come, Disney could finish the year having the top 8 grossing films of the year. I count Spider-Man as Disney as it's MCU , but outside that , what film do you think has a chance to break out and finish ahead of some Disney films to enter the top 8??

Nothing. Frozen 2 and Star Wars are locks for $400M (both likely a lot more), so you're looking for something to beat out Aladdin at #8 which will finish around $360M or so. Your only real contenders are It: Chapter Two -- the first finished at $327M and I wouldn't expect the second to beat it -- and Jumanji 2, but that's another one I don't see repeating the runaway success of the first movie. Non-Disney sequels have been struggling this year.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

Nothing. Frozen 2 and Star Wars are locks for $400M (both likely a lot more), so you're looking for something to beat out Aladdin at #8 which will finish around $360M or so. Your only real contenders are It: Chapter Two -- the first finished at $327M and I wouldn't expect the second to beat it -- and Jumanji 2, but that's another one I don't see repeating the runaway success of the first movie. Non-Disney sequels have been struggling this year.

Plus Disney will just re-release their last few films just to be giant jerkfaces.

[getbak]

IT 2, Joker, Terminator, and Jumanji are the only ones that might have a chance.


Terminator has to hope the return of Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong are what people have been wanting. The expected R rating could help pull in fans of the franchise, but it also limits the number of people who can see it. Each sequel after T2 has performed worse than the one before. If it's a good movie, it will probably end up being the highest-grossing Terminator film (if only because ticket prices have gone up a lot since the early 90s), but probably not good enough to break Disney's stranglehold at the top.


IT 2 should do at least as well as the first one and possibly better because some people who have watched the first one at home might venture to theatres to watch the second part. It also has a more recognizable cast than the first one because the main characters are now adults.


Joker is a DC Joker movie which should pull people in, but it's not supposed to be a superhero film and only loosely based on anything from the comics. There does seem to be a lot of Oscar buzz around Phoenix, but Oscar buzz doesn't always sell tickets.


The first Jumanji (or second, depending on how you look at it) was a surprise hit that pulled in really good numbers. The sequel could be another strong one. It's probably the one with the best chance of squeezing into the top 8.

[KTrain]

Jumanji 2 has Star Wars the following week so I doubt it will have the staying power of the previous one.

People have been burned by the Terminator franchise. Hell, I forgot it was even coming out this year and I love the franchise.

IT 2 and Joker probably have the most promise to crack the top 10.

[OutOfTheCube]

Terminator has a very small chance of not being an outright flop. That franchise has seen diminishing returns for a decade and the trailer didn't do much to make anyone excited -- just looks like another messy CGI-fest with a story and characters people really aren't as invested in as the movie producers think they are. A box office performance similar to Genisys would have to be seen as a success.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by KTrain

Jumanji 2 has Star Wars the following week so I doubt it will have the staying power of the previous one.

The last one came out 5 days after Star Wars, so who knows?

Frozen might be a bigger problem for Jumanji in the fight for family audiences. 2 years ago, Coco wasn't as strong, so there was a hole for something family-friendly around Christmas.

[Nadal Fan]

First forecast for Joker has been released and is projected right now at $175 mill total after a $77mill opening. I still think that's too low, I'm expecting at least $200 mill.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-joker/