07-24-2019, 08:45 AM
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#142
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Franchise Player
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I think you’ve got the order pretty much right on but maybe a bit high on the grosses. Jumanji and It are both sequels to surprise hits and those have typically struggled, we’ve even seen that this year — I don’t think either will break $300M again, but they’ll still be good money maker. You’re right on with Frozen, I could see it going even higher. Episode 9 will do really well — it will need a lot better word of mouth than TLJ to hit $800M.
As for 5th, I know you’re a DC guy and very optimistic about Joker, $250M would be an amazing gross for it. Not impossible, it would need very good reviews and even Oscar hype to go that high. I could see that spot going to Hobbs & Shaw, which should push in to the $150-$200M, or other potential breakout hits for awards season that we’re not looking at as traditional hype movies.
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07-24-2019, 10:48 AM
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#144
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan
I have more faith in IT Chapter 2 to be honest but Jumanji releasing in December will certainly help it. I feel like audiences are kinda waiting for something more adult this year and IT will scratch that itch for them. Both will do well but your right will be hard for them to match their first movie grosses.
With Episode 9 I was using Episode 7 as a guide but giving recent Star Wars performances at the box office we could be looking at the $600 million range (which is still great for any other movie). I assume everyone who complained about The Last Jedi will still see this one but I never thought Solo would bomb so you just never know.
For me I was debating between Hobbs & Shaw and Joker and could go either way for that 5th spot. For me Joker got a lot of trailer views and likes and shares on Youtube and Twitter which was what swayed it for me. Plus he is such a huge draw, the last movie he was in was Suicide Squad which everyone supposedly hated yet still made insane amounts of money.
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The Joker has a $55 million budget and will be opening at film festivals prior to its box office release. If a movie like that can make it to the $250 mil domestic mark (which would likely translate into an 800 or so international), that would be a massive win.
Opening in film festivals could mean they are going for a more specific audience than usual...or if the movie is good, it could create massive word of mouth.
I'm not sure movies like Suicide Squad are comparable. That was a big loud action movie aimed at a general audience. This looks like something we've never seen before, which is a comic book movie aimed at a thinking arthouse type audience. Logan might be the closest comparable, which did $226 million. So it's not unheard of for a comic book movie aimed a narrow audience to do well.
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07-24-2019, 05:49 PM
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#145
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
If a movie like that can make it to the $250 mil domestic mark (which would likely translate into an 800 or so international).
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I don't think Batman has the same type of draw overseas. Things have changed, but The Dark Knight was over 50% domestic. Suicide Squad was 43.5% domestic. An arthouse noir movie like this I just don't see being a draw in the Asian markets as other blockbusters. So I think if it did bring in 250M, it'd be closer to 500M internationally.
Personally, I'm over-saturated with DC and the Joker. We've had enough takes on the Joker over the years. I'll almost certainly watch it when it gets on Netflix but I have little interest to see it in theatres. Only a super super high word of mouth would likely get me to see in theatre.
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07-24-2019, 06:47 PM
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#146
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Franchise Player
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I don’t think Joker does super box office, as just not sure it’s positioned as that kind of movie. Hobbs and Shaw should exceed it easily IMO and maybe some others like Terminator or Maleficent.
Frozen and Star Wars will be closer than expected.
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07-25-2019, 08:07 AM
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#147
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Franchise Player
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Joker will really be a wild card. If it hits I can see this thing exploding, but with such a small budget this movie will make a lot of money for WB guaranteed.
I just have no confidence in Hobbs and Shaw personally the trailers have done nothing for me. I'm much more excited for the Terminator film, this is really their last kick at the can. If this terminator movie fails I dont see a new one coming out for a long long time.
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07-25-2019, 08:13 AM
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#148
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ALL ABOARD!
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I think you're underestimating the Fast and Furious franchise. I know this is spin-off but that fanbase is fanatical and international. The last two have each made a over billion dollars overseas.
Honestly, it's the only F&F movie I've actually wanted to see. It looks funny and action packed. Competely stupid but feels like a throwback action movie.
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07-25-2019, 08:52 AM
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#150
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
I don't think Batman has the same type of draw overseas. Things have changed, but The Dark Knight was over 50% domestic. Suicide Squad was 43.5% domestic. An arthouse noir movie like this I just don't see being a draw in the Asian markets as other blockbusters. So I think if it did bring in 250M, it'd be closer to 500M internationally.
Personally, I'm over-saturated with DC and the Joker. We've had enough takes on the Joker over the years. I'll almost certainly watch it when it gets on Netflix but I have little interest to see it in theatres. Only a super super high word of mouth would likely get me to see in theatre.
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Things have changed a lot since the Dark Knight.
Suicide Squad was banned in China. With an average Chinese performance, it would have been much closer to the 1/3 domestic we are seeing for these big movies now.
DC is very popular in Asia generally. Kids what all sorts of Batman and Superman gear there.
Edit: Just looked it up. The Dark Knight was also banned in China, and did not get a theatrical release there either.
Last edited by blankall; 07-25-2019 at 09:57 AM.
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07-25-2019, 09:55 AM
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#151
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
Things have changed a lot since the Dark Knight.
Suicide Squad was banned in China. With an average Chinese performance, it would have been much closer to the 1/3 domestic we are seeing for these big movies now.
DC is very popular in Asia generally. Kids what all sorts of Batman and Superman gear there.
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Why?
I mean, clearly a good call by the Chinese Government to save its citizens from a couple hours of skull-numbing boredom but they probably missed a good Propaganda opportunity to educate their citizens on the folly of the decadent West to waste their time, money and intellectual well-being on such drivel.
But beyond the obvious, why?
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07-25-2019, 10:05 AM
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#152
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
Why?
I mean, clearly a good call by the Chinese Government to save its citizens from a couple hours of skull-numbing boredom but they probably missed a good Propaganda opportunity to educate their citizens on the folly of the decadent West to waste their time, money and intellectual well-being on such drivel.
But beyond the obvious, why?
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Because Katana's mask has the Japanese flag on it
Say what you will about the movie but it made bank at the box office and I'm pretty confident the sequel will as well.
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07-25-2019, 10:19 AM
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#153
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan
Say what you will about the movie but it made bank at the box office and I'm pretty confident the sequel will as well.
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I will say what I will. People spend money on stupid crap all the time and, for the millionth time, 'making bank on the box office' is not necessarily indicative of a good movie.
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
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07-25-2019, 10:36 AM
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#154
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
I will say what I will. People spend money on stupid crap all the time and, for the millionth time, 'making bank on the box office' is not necessarily indicative of a good movie.
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Never said it did, but it speaks to capturing an audience at a specific point in time. The fact that it was leggier than BvS and Civil War and outsold them both on home video tells me there was an audience for this film.
2021 is going to be very interesting to see who wins the box office with both DC and Marvel bringing the noise with The Batman, Suicide Squad 2, Shang Chi, Dr. Strange 2 and Thor 4. I personally can't wait and will be at all 5 opening day.
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07-25-2019, 10:50 AM
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#155
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
Why?
I mean, clearly a good call by the Chinese Government to save its citizens from a couple hours of skull-numbing boredom but they probably missed a good Propaganda opportunity to educate their citizens on the folly of the decadent West to waste their time, money and intellectual well-being on such drivel.
But beyond the obvious, why?
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China has recently opened up their country to outside music/movies, but they still have some pretty strict decency laws. My guess is a combination of Margo Robbie and the random violence got the movie banned. Deadpool was banned, likely for similar reasons.
They also banned Justin Beiber from performing, as he was misbehaved. They banned the new Ghostbusters movie for having too many supernatural elements. Suicide Squad had a lot of cultish/supernatural themes too, which probably didn't help.
China also generally bans any movies that have a "revolt" theme or deal with time travel. Avatar and Back to the Future are both banned. Supposedly Brad Pitt was banned for 20 years after making 7 years in Tibet.
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07-25-2019, 12:55 PM
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#156
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
I will say what I will. People spend money on stupid crap all the time and, for the millionth time, 'making bank on the box office' is not necessarily indicative of a good movie.
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Where is that being said? This is the box office thread and box office is a measure of popularity.
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07-30-2019, 02:39 PM
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#157
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Disney has already made more money this year than they did in all of 2016 (the previous record)...
https://twitter.com/user/status/1155548234640703488
They still have Frozen 2 and Star Wars Ep 9 to come before the end of the year.
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07-30-2019, 03:15 PM
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#158
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Likes Cartoons
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And Maleficent 2. They're almost certain to hit 10 billion.
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07-30-2019, 06:03 PM
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#159
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Franchise Player
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Do people really care about Star Wars and Frozen though? Disney needs to produce Man of the House 2 if it really wants to set records.
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07-30-2019, 11:15 PM
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#160
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
Do people really care about Star Wars and Frozen though? Disney needs to produce Man of the House 2 if it really wants to set records.
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The Apple Dumpling Gang Rides Again ... Again. Starring The Rock.
I was originally going to make this joke using Escape to Witch Mountain ... then I remembered that they actually did do a remake of that movie ... and it actually did star The Rock.
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