Let's talk Box Office

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by blankall

Apparently joker is potentially tracking for a $100 million opener. There aren't a lot of presales here and positive word of mouth could see it making it to that $300 million mark, which would be incredible for the budget.

Not sure where you read that. According to Box Office Pro, it’s tracking in the $70-$95M range, with their prediction at $81M (and they seem to come in higher than actual pretty often). Even with that range, the prediction for the total gross is $175M, nowhere close to $300M.

[Nadal Fan]

I just have a feeling this will be a surprise runaway hit. I think the legs for this will be great and the re-watchability will be there. Of course I haven't seen the film yet but I just can't discount the Joker factor. This movie will be a real wild card. One thing for certain, it's going to be a huge hit and hopefully kick off more R rated superhero movies. Logan, Dredd , V for Vendetta, Watchmen, BvS (Ultimate Edition) are all some of my favorite cbms ever.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Not sure where you read that. According to Box Office Pro, it’s tracking in the $70-$95M range, with their prediction at $81M (and they seem to come in higher than actual pretty often). Even with that range, the prediction for the total gross is $175M, nowhere close to $300M.

An 81 million opener and 175 total would be very bad legs. A movie like this with Oscar buzz typically has at least a 3 times ratio from opening weekend.

If Joker hits the higher end of it's range, then tracks the same as Venom, it would hit 255. Keep in mind Venom had very mixed reviews.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

I just have a feeling this will be a surprise runaway hit. I think the legs for this will be great and the re-watchability will be there. Of course I haven't seen the film yet but I just can't discount the Joker factor. This movie will be a real wild card. One thing for certain, it's going to be a huge hit and hopefully kick off more R rated superhero movies. Logan, Dredd , V for Vendetta, Watchmen, BvS (Ultimate Edition) are all some of my favorite cbms ever.

I think you're still discounting how the R rating will affect box office numbers.

not a comic book movie, but a recent example could be Bohemian Rhapsody vs. rocketman.
BR made 900 million worldwide. Rocketman made 190 million, despite arguably being the better movie.
obviously there are other factors, but I think if rocketman toned down and also was PG-13, they would have perhaps made a couple hundred million more.

[Nadal Fan]

Breakouts from R rated movies do happen, American Sniper, and both Deadpool movies made over $300 mill. Is it likely no, but I'm holding out hope it will be a Dark Knight situation where it blew away expectations and crushed it at the box office.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by blankall

An 81 million opener and 175 total would be very bad legs. A movie like this with Oscar buzz typically has at least a 3 times ratio from opening weekend.

If Joker hits the higher end of it's range, then tracks the same as Venom, it would hit 255. Keep in mind Venom had very mixed reviews.

81/175 is fine legs for an apparently disturbing Rated R film released in October. And you've got it backwards, a movie like this typically has at most a 3 times ratio from opening weekend.

Venom is irrelevant. It was rated PG-13, which means it had a huge advantage in terms of audience. Despite it's critic rankings it also had huge word-of-mouth, people loved it.

A movie like this (Oscar buzz aside, because there's really no legs behind the buzz yet and what little there is seems to be solely focused on Phoenix, which doesn't move the needle the way serious best picture potentials do) often tracks at an opening weekend being 35-45% of it's total.

On the bright end, if it does a 35% ratio (and that's if everything goes extremely well, keep in mind Deadpool 2 did 39.4, "It" did 37.7, and Deadpool did 36.5) then you're looking at anywhere between $200M and $270M total. You're going to have a tough time drawing as well as an Action/Comedy or a Horror movie, and those 3 movies are the closest comparables of the FIVE total R-rated movies that have topped $300M. They all also opened at over $120M.

It basically has to have an $100M+ opening weekend and the best legs of any R-rated movie in recent history to hit $300M. That is unlikely, but we'll see.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I think you're still discounting how the R rating will affect box office numbers.

not a comic book movie, but a recent example could be Bohemian Rhapsody vs. rocketman.
BR made 900 million worldwide. Rocketman made 190 million, despite arguably being the better movie.
obviously there are other factors, but I think if rocketman toned down and also was PG-13, they would have perhaps made a couple hundred million more.

Rocketman had zero hype. I had no idea that movie was even releasing. Meanwhile, there were huge promotional dollars behind BR. Trailers were on TV constantly.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

81/175 is fine legs for an apparently disturbing Rated R film released in October. And you've got it backwards, a movie like this typically has at most a 3 times ratio from opening weekend.

Venom is irrelevant. It was rated PG-13, which means it had a huge advantage in terms of audience. Despite it's critic rankings it also had huge word-of-mouth, people loved it.

A movie like this (Oscar buzz aside, because there's really no legs behind the buzz yet and what little there is seems to be solely focused on Phoenix, which doesn't move the needle the way serious best picture potentials do) often tracks at an opening weekend being 35-45% of it's total.

On the bright end, if it does a 35% ratio (and that's if everything goes extremely well, keep in mind Deadpool 2 did 39.4, "It" did 37.7, and Deadpool did 36.5) then you're looking at anywhere between $200M and $270M total. You're going to have a tough time drawing as well as an Action/Comedy or a Horror movie, and those 3 movies are the closest comparables of the FIVE total R-rated movies that have topped $300M. They all also opened at over $120M.

It basically has to have an $100M+ opening weekend and the best legs of any R-rated movie in recent history to hit $300M. That is unlikely, but we'll see.

This is incorrect. There have been plenty of recent R rated films with excellent legs.

Gone Girl: $37 million opening - $167 total domestic
Bridesmaids: $26 million opening - $169 total
Get Out: $33 million opening - $175 total
The Revenant: $39 million opening - $183 total
22 Jump Street: $57 million opening - $191 total
Ted: $54 million opening - $218 total
Logan: $88 million opening - $226 total
Hangover Part II - $85 million opening - $254 million total
The Hangover - $44 million opening - $277 million total
American Sniper - $89 million opening - $350 million total
Deadpool - $132 million opening - $363 million total
A Star is Born - $42 million opening- $215 total

Basically, R rated films that are actually good, tend to have very good legs, and are propelled forward by word of mouth.

I still think it's unlikely that Joker makes $300 million, but to say it's outside of the realm of possibility is incorrect. If it has a solid opening, and then gets good word of mouth, it has a very real possibility to get to $300 million.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by blankall

This is incorrect. There have been plenty of recent R rated films with excellent legs.

Gone Girl: $37 million opening - $167 total domestic
Bridesmaids: $26 million opening - $169 total
Get Out: $33 million opening - $175 total
The Revenant: $39 million opening - $183 total
22 Jump Street: $57 million opening - $191 total
Ted: $54 million opening - $218 total
Logan: $88 million opening - $226 total
Hangover Part II - $85 million opening - $254 million total
The Hangover - $44 million opening - $277 million total
American Sniper - $89 million opening - $350 million total
Deadpool - $132 million opening - $363 million total
A Star is Born - $42 million opening- $215 total

Basically, R rated films that are actually good, tend to have very good legs, and are propelled forward by word of mouth.

I still think it's unlikely that Joker makes $300 million, but to say it's outside of the realm of possibility is incorrect. If it has a solid opening, and then gets good word of mouth, it has a very real possibility to get to $300 million.

What is incorrect?

How does that list speak to a "disturbing R rated film released in October"? That list is almost entirely comprised of comedies and best picture dramas. And I didn't say it wasn't possible, I said it was unlikely... so we agree?

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. The movie I compared it to is even on your list: Logan. Opened at 88, hit 226. I think that's probably within the fair estimate for Joker. Dark comic book movie, a bit of (questionable) Oscar buzz, iconic character, etc.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

What is incorrect?

How does that list speak to a "disturbing R rated film released in October"? That list is almost entirely comprised of comedies and best picture dramas. And I didn't say it wasn't possible, I said it was unlikely... so we agree?

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. The movie I compared it to is even on your list: Logan. Opened at 88, hit 226. I think that's probably within the fair estimate for Joker. Dark comic book movie, a bit of (questionable) Oscar buzz, iconic character, etc.

As popular as Wolverine is, he doesn't have the draw that Joker does among a general adult audience. Logan was far more of a niche film, having been built upon the rest of the X-men series.

You're putting way too many qualifiers on here, to exclude all the comparables that don't fit your argument.

The truth is there has never really been a movie like Joker released.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by blankall

As popular as Wolverine is, he doesn't have the draw that Joker does among a general adult audience. Logan was far more of a niche film, having been built upon the rest of the X-men series.

You're putting way too many qualifiers on here, to exclude all the comparables that don't fit your argument.

The truth is there has never really been a movie like Joker released.

"You're excluding comparables that don't fit your argument!"

*Excludes Logan because it doesn't fit his argument*

Honestly, predict it however you want, I'm just offering perspective, i hope it does well and (more important) I hope it's great. It doesn't make sense to me to post about how it's predicted to make almost $100M opening weekend but to then discredit the total prediction from the same source because it doesn't feel good to you. I guess only part of their prediction fit your argument

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

"You're excluding comparables that don't fit your argument!"

*Excludes Logan because it doesn't fit his argument*

Honestly, predict it however you want, I'm just offering perspective, i hope it does well and (more important) I hope it's great. It doesn't make sense to me to post about how it's predicted to make almost $100M opening weekend but to then discredit the total prediction from the same source because it doesn't feel good to you. I guess only part of their prediction fit your argument

I didn't exclude Logan. I think it's one of many comparables.

With the $100 m opening, I admittedly just reading the headline. That being said, Joker could definitely make $300 million. While it's still unlikely, too many posters are being overly dismissive.

[Nadal Fan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1169980427735654400

Over under $300 million domestic total? The first one did $327.

[KTrain]

It will be under. It's not as good a movie as the first and I think word-of-mouth is going to hurt it.

[OutOfTheCube]

Under for sure. Chapter One was the definition of striking while the iron was hot. This won't have nearly the legs.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by KTrain

It will be under. It's not as good a movie as the first and I think word-of-mouth is going to hurt it.

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

Under for sure. Chapter One was the definition of striking while the iron was hot. This won't have nearly the legs.

You guys dont have faith in completionism?

People who want to see how the story ends? Despite likely knowing it.

[KTrain]

People will complete it. Just not in theatre.

[Nadal Fan]

Joker forecast updated to $100 opening and $210 domestic. Still think it has room to go up given we are still a month out.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-ra...-joker-update/

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by Locke

You guys dont have faith in completionism?

People who want to see how the story ends? Despite likely knowing it.

I think people love seeing how stories end, but this isn't Avengers or Star Wars or whatever, the culmination of a decade + of story telling across a dozen movies. It's just a sequel to a pretty good horror movie that people liked. You can't sell it as the end to some great saga like they're trying to do.

It's still going to do really well either way -- EDIT: you can already see the dip just in the opening day, $37M for Chapter 2 compared to $50M for Chapter 1, a 25% drop.

[Nadal Fan]

IT chapter 2 made $91 million this weekend, which is 25% lower than the first one BUT good enough for the 2nd highest horror opening weekend ever. It's a good opening weekend and the first success for something other than Disney in a while.