[Rumour] NHL plans to allow arguments to be heard on conds of Lucic/Neal trade (arbitration?)

[MrMike]

Are their any other picks that were suppose to be determined by such clauses this year or is this the only one?

[Sylvanfan]

Its interesting how Neal had 4 goals and 5 assists and was -4 in his last 20 games this season with 3 of those goals in a game 13 games before his last game of the season. Numbers that are very similar to his last 20 regular season games in Las Vegas where he had 3 goals and 6 assists and was -10 with 1 goal in his last 17 games.

I think the Neal we saw in Calgary will show up in the coming years in Edmonton.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Its interesting how Neal had 4 goals and 5 assists and was -4 in his last 20 games this season with 3 of those goals in a game 13 games before his last game of the season. Numbers that are very similar to his last 20 regular season games in Las Vegas where he had 3 goals and 6 assists and was -10 with 1 goal in his last 17 games.

I think the Neal we saw in Calgary will show up in the coming years in Edmonton.

He already did after his hot start. He was injured for a ton of time. I think most posters here would agree they'd rather have Lucic as the lesser of two evils.

[Locke]

Is there any chance that the Arbitrator determines that they both suck and moves to strike Lucic's contract from existence, but as punishment for creating the contract in the first place the Oilers have to retain Neal?

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, how do the Oilers go about presenting this argument? ...

"Yes, James Neal scored 19 goals, but look at him. No one in their right mind believes he could bang in two more—he's just about the most useless player on Edmonton's roster, and that's saying something."

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

If they were smart they would attack it from the side that says yeah, he'd have reached that threshold, but Lucic was playing well and would have scored enough that the difference in goals would have been single digits, thus the pick should not transfer.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

If they were smart they would attack it from the side that says yeah, he'd have reached that threshold, but Lucic was playing well and would have scored enough that the difference in goals would have been single digits, thus the pick should not transfer.

Using the same extrapolations, Neal would have out produced Lucic to reach the draft pick limits.

Nevermind didn't realize what you were saying, reading comprehension should come first.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Using the same extrapolations, Neal would have out produced Lucic to reach the draft pick limits.

Nevermind didn't realize what you were saying, reading comprehension should come first.

All good, we all have those moments.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Its interesting how Neal had 4 goals and 5 assists and was -4 in his last 20 games this season with 3 of those goals in a game 13 games before his last game of the season. Numbers that are very similar to his last 20 regular season games in Las Vegas where he had 3 goals and 6 assists and was -10 with 1 goal in his last 17 games.

I think the Neal we saw in Calgary will show up in the coming years in Edmonton.

I watched a lot of Oiler games. The Neal we saw in Calgary arrived right after October. He was brutal.

His numbers in October were a fluke and even Oiler fans were starting to turn on him.

[Crown Royal]

So if I were the GMs going to arbitration, these are the arguments I would make.

Brad Treliving

This one is simple. Straight up pro-rate the stats, we're doing it for bonuses the precedent is set. Neal was on pace for 22.8 goals, while Lucic was on pace for 9.4. Therefor the pick should transfer to the Flames.

Ken Holland

This is more complicated, the game has its ebbs and flows to a season and thus players can be streaky, with prolonged hot streaks and even more pronounced slumps and Neal has a history of being an extremely streaky player. As such, there are always going to be stretches that are outliers that make a players production look stronger than it actually is. Neal had a wonderful start, but as the season progressed, Neal's hot streak dissipated; from December 1 to the end of the season Neal has only score 5 goals in 28 games, a pace that would have seen him score score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games the Oilers had remaining. There is precedent for Neal's having extremely cold slumps, as from the all-star break in 2018, up until he was traded to the Oilers he's only scored 10 goals in 86 games, also a pace that would have seen him score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games. And with Neal no longer seeing power play time, it seems more likely that Neal's October and November stats were the outliers since the 2018 all-star game.

[Poe969]

Flames get oilers 3rd and Oilers get last pick in third round.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Flames get oilers 3rd and Oilers get last pick in third round.

I could see this being the ultimate decision, the other realistic option IMO is awarding the Flames the pick immediately before the Oilers pick.

If this is going to arbitration, they may also give the GMs a chance to sort it out themselves too, if they do allow that, seeing the teams agree to a "trade" of the Oilers 3rd for a later Flames pick, perhaps a 6th rounder, is also a possibility.

[Titan]

The problem with an extra pick being awarded is it screws everyone that picks after for a situation only between Edm.(=NG) and Calgary. I can't see the rest of the GMs being onside with this when the precedent for pro-rating has been set for other situations.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Titan

The problem with an extra pick being awarded is it screws everyone that picks after for a situation only between Edm.(=NG) and Calgary. I can't see the rest of the GMs being onside with this when the precedent for pro-rating has been set for other situations.

The NHL has awarded compensatory picks quite often in the past. In fact we used to see a ton of weird trades on June 30th because certain teams would get compensatory picks for lost free agents. It was really weird, like in 2002 we traded a 3rd round pick to Toronto for Cujo's right, because when he left as a UFA the following day we were awarded a 2nd round pick as compensation for him signing elsewhere. In the 2003 draft, there were 8 compensatory picks awarded for lost UFAs. I remember Mike Richter being traded to the Oilers in a similar deal, the Avs traded Theo Fleury to San Jose for the same reason.... etc.

Also, once into the 3rd round, moving down 1 pick is not a big deal.

[TheScorpion]

Pretty sure the Rangers got a compensatory pick out of the Cherepanov situation, too.

[Lanny_McDonald]

What would be really fair is the league allowed both teams to nullify the contracts of both players and walk away. I'm kidding... but I'm not. :-(

[Crown Royal]

Instead of taking their pick, the Oilers could eat another 25% of Lucic's contract

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by New Era

What would be really fair is the league allowed both teams to nullify the contracts of both players and walk away. I'm kidding... but I'm not. :-(

I'd be perfectly fine to give Lucic back to the Oilers and allow them to keep Neal too!

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

So if I were the GMs going to arbitration, these are the arguments I would make.

Brad Treliving

This one is simple. Straight up pro-rate the stats, we're doing it for bonuses the precedent is set. Neal was on pace for 22.8 goals, while Lucic was on pace for 9.4. Therefor the pick should transfer to the Flames.

Ken Holland

This is more complicated, the game has its ebbs and flows to a season and thus players can be streaky, with prolonged hot streaks and even more pronounced slumps and Neal has a history of being an extremely streaky player. As such, there are always going to be stretches that are outliers that make a players production look stronger than it actually is. Neal had a wonderful start, but as the season progressed, Neal's hot streak dissipated; from December 1 to the end of the season Neal has only score 5 goals in 28 games, a pace that would have seen him score score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games the Oilers had remaining. There is precedent for Neal's having extremely cold slumps, as from the all-star break in 2018, up until he was traded to the Oilers he's only scored 10 goals in 86 games, also a pace that would have seen him score fewer than 2 goals over the final 11 games. And with Neal no longer seeing power play time, it seems more likely that Neal's October and November stats were the outliers since the 2018 all-star game.

I get that's probably the only argument Holland can make, but objectively speaking, that's a subjective point of view, and as an arbitrator trying to be fair, how would they justify it? Tre can easily flip that argument and say, you can't know whether the slump is prolonged or not. For all we know, Neal could have had a hattrick the very next game. The only fair way to really do this is just to prorate their stats over the last 11 games, provided Neal was healthy and ready to go.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Pretty sure the Rangers got a compensatory pick out of the Cherepanov situation, too.

At that time there was a clause in the CBA where if you did not sign your first round pick you were given the same number selection in round 2 as compensation. So since the Rangers did not have him signed they received that pick. Had they signed him before his untimely passing...that would have been different.

They actually changed the language in the 2013 CBA to cover a situation where if the player becomes deceased. The way it was written prior to that the player still had to be eligible to be drafted to get compensation and the Rangers had to argue that the deceased Cherepanov was still eligible to be drafted even though it would most likely not happen.

[MoneyGuy]

The Oilers will keep their pick and the Flames will get the last pick in round 3.