While its a positve that Assad is gone, I don't know if that positive is going to last long. the new leadership has a long way to go to gain anykind of trust. There are too many ISIS and Al Queda members involved here.
I doubt we see a legitimate election, I think it will be more like Afghanistan after the Russian's were defeated and the crazies took over.
We're a long way from even the possibility of a general election in Syria. Israel, Turkey and USA are all committing active airstrike campaigns and Turkey controls parts of Syria in the north while Israel is making raids in the south... there are also still at least three separate armed alliances controlling different parts of the country, Russians are still in the country, and we don't even really know what will happen with pro-Assad forces as Assad is still alive.
Turkish backed forces are in active combat against SDF ("the Kurds", although SDF is actually also an alliance) over the city of Manjib in the north.
Not to forget that the HTS itself is not actually one united force, but rather an alliance of several smaller ones, and right now there's almost guaranteed to be an internal power struggle of sort, as everyone is looking to set themselves up for the future.
There's even areas of Syria that aren't officially in anyone's control.
The civil war isn't over, it's just in a new stage.
A reminder of why people are celebrating the end of Assads regime.
Quote:
they also opened the doors of the regime’s notorious prisons, into which upwards of 100,000 people disappeared during nearly 14 years of civil war.
Many emerged frail and emaciated into the bright December sunlight, greeted by weeping family members who had no idea they were still alive. Some struggled to comprehend that Assad was gone; a few held even longer had never even been told that he had succeeded his father, Hafez, who died in 2000.
Verified videos from Damascus showed dozens of women and small children being held in cells, the rebels opening the doors telling them not to be afraid.
Quote:
Raghad al-Tatary, a pilot who refused to bomb the city of Hama during the uprising against Hafez al-Assad in the 1980s, was freed after 43 years; Tal al-Mallouhi, 19 when she was arrested in 2009 for a blogpost criticising state corruption, was found alive.
One shaven-headed, shaking man in Sednaya had been so ill-treated he had lost his memory and struggled to talk. His family said he had been 20 and a medical student when he vanished 13 years ago.
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So it's basically like all other real life examples of communism. The leaders become corrupt and live a luxurious lifestyle. Everyone else gets poverty.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
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Remember all the realists, regime apologists, and contrarians when we get the full picture of what happened in the prisons, and a full accounting of the gas attacks and state sponsored murder campaigns.
Remember all the realists, regime apologists, and contrarians when we get the full picture of what happened in the prisons, and a full accounting of the gas attacks and state sponsored murder campaigns.
Putin?
I can't think of any others. Staying out of these conflicts is different.
The prisoner thing is wild. I saw a news reel of a guy getting out and he was so happy and confused asking people what happened. He had no news about anything that had been goin on.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
A reminder of why people are celebrating the end of Assads regime.
Seeing stories like this always makes me feel so grateful for having won the birth lottery and having been born in a place that, while not perfect, is free in so many ways.
Imagine living in a place where saying the wrong thing could get you locked up in a dungeon for the rest of your life.
As far as what's next for Syria? It's a long ways from seeing any kind of cohesive state formed, and I double it ever will. The Kurds in the North have, more or less, been running their own state for a decade. It's something that Turkey can never see officially recognized, as it could lead to Turkey itself breaking apart, if the 20% (and rising) Kurdish population start to look across the border and get their own ideas.
These rebels, who just took out Assad, are also former Al Queda members. The Kurds are fairly religious and mostly Sunni, but also not that religious and many are not Sunni. I just can't see how the two competing factions would ever form one government.
To be honest, why should they. These are artificial borders drawn 70-100 years ago, and they are breaking down. What we are witnessing is likely the first step towards a greater Kurdistan that runs through Turkey to Iran. Turkey and Iran both have shrinking populations, while the Kurdish birth rate remains quite high. Turkey won't have the population to militarily hold the Kurds in check for very long.
In the meantime, I don't see how there's any option but for Turkey to ensure that Syria remains divided into autonomous mini countries.
Seeing stories like this always makes me feel so grateful for having won the birth lottery and having been born in a place that, while not perfect, is free in so many ways.
Imagine living in a place where saying the wrong thing could get you locked up in a dungeon for the rest of your life.
As far as what's next for Syria? It's a long ways from seeing any kind of cohesive state formed, and I double it ever will. The Kurds in the North have, more or less, been running their own state for a decade. It's something that Turkey can never see officially recognized, as it could lead to Turkey itself breaking apart, if the 20% (and rising) Kurdish population start to look across the border and get their own ideas.
These rebels, who just took out Assad, are also former Al Queda members. The Kurds are fairly religious and mostly Sunni, but also not that religious and many are not Sunni. I just can't see how the two competing factions would ever form one government.
To be honest, why should they. These are artificial borders drawn 70-100 years ago, and they are breaking down. What we are witnessing is likely the first step towards a greater Kurdistan that runs through Turkey to Iran. Turkey and Iran both have shrinking populations, while the Kurdish birth rate remains quite high. Turkey won't have the population to militarily hold the Kurds in check for very long.
In the meantime, I don't see how there's any option but for Turkey to ensure that Syria remains divided into autonomous mini countries.
Erdogan is a wild card. He wants to play Sultan but also wants to appease the West to stay in their NATO club. Who knows what he is going to pull.
Erdogan is a wild card. He wants to play Sultan but also wants to appease the West to stay in their NATO club. Who knows what he is going to pull.
Unless he wants to allow the eastern third of Turkey to secede, he has no choice but to keep on destabilizing Northern Syria.
I suppose if the many parties in Syria can somehow agree to a unity government of some kind, then I could see Turkey supporting that, with the goal of chaining Kurdish Syria permanently to the rest of Syria. I just don't see how that's likely to happen or why either the Kurds or the Sunni Islamists would ever want that. Both seem happy to enforce their own rules in their own territory.
Seeing stories like this always makes me feel so grateful for having won the birth lottery and having been born in a place that, while not perfect, is free in so many ways.
Imagine living in a place where saying the wrong thing could get you locked up in a dungeon for the rest of your life.
I was just today watching this video and thinking about the same.
It's impossible to really understand how different life would be if you lived somewhere where ISIS or Taleban are (at least in some ways) an upgrade on the previous government.
Quote:
As far as what's next for Syria? It's a long ways from seeing any kind of cohesive state formed, and I double it ever will. The Kurds in the North have, more or less, been running their own state for a decade. It's something that Turkey can never see officially recognized, as it could lead to Turkey itself breaking apart, if the 20% (and rising) Kurdish population start to look across the border and get their own ideas.
These rebels, who just took out Assad, are also former Al Queda members. The Kurds are fairly religious and mostly Sunni, but also not that religious and many are not Sunni. I just can't see how the two competing factions would ever form one government.
Unfortunately, the one thing pretty much all powers in the region can agree on is that there can be no Kurdistan
(I guess Israel wouldn't mind though?)
Quote:
To be honest, why should they. These are artificial borders drawn 70-100 years ago, and they are breaking down. What we are witnessing is likely the first step towards a greater Kurdistan that runs through Turkey to Iran. Turkey and Iran both have shrinking populations, while the Kurdish birth rate remains quite high. Turkey won't have the population to militarily hold the Kurds in check for very long.
In the meantime, I don't see how there's any option but for Turkey to ensure that Syria remains divided into autonomous mini countries.
One thing that draws people to ISIL is exactly that: they're the one of the few notable political powers that openly rejects colonialist borders and plans to draw their own.
You would kinda think there was more of that going on. Even more so in Africa.
Oh man...what you can do when you're Dictator...sure, the oppression comes with moral quandaries but as long as you're not the one being oppressed? There could be a silver lining in there. Somewhere....maybe...
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Surely Assad gets defenestrated now? Or will they going with the more gentlemanly polonium poisoning since he's a former head of state after all?
He's still potentially useful, so not likely.
You might even see him making a comeback at some point, or at least trying. Lots of political leaders continue to have influence in exile, and he's also still the internationally recognized leader of his country.
EDIT: ...and if Putin wants to get rid of him, I'm sure someone in Syria would be ready to pay a bounty.
Surely Assad gets defenestrated now? Or will they going with the more gentlemanly polonium poisoning since he's a former head of state after all?
The guys still ultra rich and has considerable political influence. It would make a lot more sense for the Russians to extort Assad over a long period of time. Russia also gets a kick out of harbouring its enemies' enemies.
They could also use him as a bargaining chip with the new regime that takes over. No doubt Assad still has supporters in Syria, and as long as he is alive and has some influence, he will be seen as a threat to other factions. Eventually turning him over could be used as an olive branch so that Russia can get in on good terms with the new regime.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Sure, Russia is cynical. But I think it actually makes more sense to just keep Assad comfy, no? Otherwise, who would want to risk being a Russia-backed dictator?
