Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Cappy]

Michael Saunders to the Phils. - Morosi

[Cappy]

http://rumbunter.com/2017/01/16/pitt...sed-mega-deal/

Source notes that Blue Jays pushed hard for Tony Watson (LHP) before the Arb. deadline in the hopes PIT couldn't sign.

Also alleged a much larger deal offered to PIT earlier in the offseason:

McCutchen and Watson for Biagini, Guerrero Jr., Reid-Foley, and Tellez

[jschick88]

I'm just happy that Saunders won't be back. Might be the best news of the day!

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Cappy

http://rumbunter.com/2017/01/16/pitt...sed-mega-deal/

Source notes that Blue Jays pushed hard for Tony Watson (LHP) before the Arb. deadline in the hopes PIT couldn't sign.

Also alleged a much larger deal offered to PIT earlier in the offseason:

McCutchen and Watson for Biagini, Guerrero Jr., Reid-Foley, and Tellez

I like McCutcheon, but I have a hard time believing the Jays would offer up their top 3 prospects and Biagini for those two. Sounds like wishful thinking on the Pirates side.

[Jiggy_12]

The Jays are a better team with Bautista going in to this season than they currently were looking at the other options for that spot. Still a feared bat in the league and a significant presence in the lineup.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Michael Saunders to the Phils. - Morosi

Hallelujah.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by zukes

I like McCutcheon, but I have a hard time believing the Jays would offer up their top 3 prospects and Biagini for those two. Sounds like wishful thinking on the Pirates side.

Sounds like the pirates turned it down because there weee no pitching prospects.

I think you are overvaluing the jays prospects here. The jays farm is barren. I can see why the pirates said no (if it's true).

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Sounds like the pirates turned it down because there weee no pitching prospects.

I think you are overvaluing the jays prospects here. The jays farm is barren. I can see why the pirates said no (if it's true).

Hardly. Reid-Foley is a good pitching prospect, and Guerrero Jr. is a massive prospect. Not to mention near MLB-ready Tellez.

That's a massive haul for a declining McCutchen. Cannot imagine the Jays brass that emphasizes a championship-ready development system would be alright with giving that up.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Sounds like the pirates turned it down because there weee no pitching prospects.

I think you are overvaluing the jays prospects here. The jays farm is barren. I can see why the pirates said no (if it's true).

You are under valuing. The Jays are no where near as barren as you think. I believe the last ranking had them at the middle of the pack and only because outside of Tellez, their talent is at least a year away, but they are all moving up together. So, no we don't have guys sitting in AA and AAA knocking on the door, but there is plenty in the system moving up.

Also, as pointed out, Reid-Foley is a good pitching prospect (though there is no such thing ) and Biagini is a young guy still seen as a future potential starter.

[cross16]

I'm not a Bautista fan but at this point it just makes too much sense to not bring him back. He fits on so many levels, assuming it's true that its only a 1 or 2 year deal.

Hopefully 1 year and an option but we'll see. I still like Morales but him taking up that DH spot makes me a bit nervous for having Bautista around for 2 years.

[Parallex]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago
Source: #BlueJays’ deal with Bautista, if completed, will be for one year with a mutual option.

I never get the point of mutual options. Vesting Option, Player Option, Team Option... all make sense to someone. A mutual option? One side will always have an incentive to turn it down.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by zukes

You are under valuing. The Jays are no where near as barren as you think. I believe the last ranking had them at the middle of the pack and only because outside of Tellez, their talent is at least a year away, but they are all moving up together. So, no we don't have guys sitting in AA and AAA knocking on the door, but there is plenty in the system moving up.

Also, as pointed out, Reid-Foley is a good pitching prospect (though there is no such thing ) and Biagini is a young guy still seen as a future potential starter.

No I'm not undervaluing.

Guerrero is their best prospect, and has been compared to an Edwin Encarnacion type with average speed. That is a good prospect, don't get me wrong, but he is 17 and atleast 3-4 years out.

Reid-Foley is a pitcher in A-ball, certainly not going to be putting a ton of future stock into him.

Rowdey is a first base prosepct (converted catcher) with little power.

Biagini is a decent reliever that was a Rule 5 pick. I'm not going out of my way to trade for him

Again, I'm not saying its terrible, but outside of Guerrero, the rest of the top ten will not get you an all-star like McCutch, even off a bad year. It's a decent farm, but not outstanding.

Also, that haul isn't what the Pirates need. So, while we may see more value in the three guys, I'm sure the Pirates don't.

Adam Eaton got CWS Lucas Giolita (MLB ready MLB top prospect). That is what PIT was looking for. Jays don't have an MLB ready prospect

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Rowdey is a first base prosepct (converted catcher) with little power.

... what? Tellez has power, plenty of power.

That being said you're both right. You're undervaluing the Jays farm system because there are a good number of quality prospects in it... you're not undervaluing it because the quality prospects are mostly situated in the low minors and guys (even quality guys) in the low minors don't have much trade value. Frankly, I'm glad the deal didn't happen if that was what was required... the Jays need to get younger and start building their next core which means hanging on to prospects rather then trading them away.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

... what? Tellez has power, plenty of power.

That being said you're both right. You're undervaluing the Jays farm system because there are a good number of quality prospects in it... you're not undervaluing it because the quality prospects are mostly situated in the low minors and guys (even quality guys) in the low minors don't have much trade value. Frankly, I'm glad the deal didn't happen if that was what was required... the Jays need to get younger and start building their next core which means hanging on to prospects rather then trading them away.

Good point Parallex. On Tellez, I meant to say "only power". I see him project similar to a guy like Joey Gallo, but I'm not a scout, so...

Anyway, I agree with your point. Pirates want MLB ready prospects, the Jays dont have many on that front, and the farther you get away from the Majors, the risky a prospect is - even highly touted ones.

The trade, especially now, wouldn't work for either side. It's surprising to hear about it after Shapiro's insistence on getting prospects, but considering the closing window, it's not unprecedented.

I'm assuming, like the Colorado rumours, Pirates probably wanted Stroman

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Good point Parallex. On Tellez, I meant to say "only power". I see him project similar to a guy like Joey Gallo, but I'm not a scout, so...

Anyway, I agree with your point. Pirates want MLB ready prospects, the Jays dont have many on that front, and the farther you get away from the Majors, the risky a prospect is - even highly touted ones.

The trade, especially now, wouldn't work for either side. It's surprising to hear about it after Shapiro's insistence on getting prospects, but considering the closing window, it's not unprecedented.

I'm assuming, like the Colorado rumours, Pirates probably wanted Stroman

That is a much better argument, but even your point on Giolito, nobody is a proven MLB commodity until they actually are. Yes, many say that he will be a good pitcher, but 6 games (4 starts) in the majors with a 6.75ERA doesn't prove anything. Dustin McGowan was once a top pitching prospect too.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Hardly. Reid-Foley is a good pitching prospect, and Guerrero Jr. is a massive prospect. Not to mention near MLB-ready Tellez.

That's a massive haul for a declining McCutchen. Cannot imagine the Jays brass that emphasizes a championship-ready development system would be alright with giving that up.

It's a big haul if all these guys pan out, which in baseball is never going to happen. I'd bet a lot of money Guerrero will be the only one of those guys listed which will make any impact at the MLB level.

That's the cost of acquiring a player to put you over the top though. The thing about McCutcheon, is you can easily move him a year down the road to replace the prospects you gave up. The Yankees do this to perfection.

[edslunch]

Discussion about prospects value is moot - trading prospects is 180 degrees from Shapiro's MO. Isn't that one reason AA was pushed out?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Discussion about prospects value is moot - trading prospects is 180 degrees from Shapiro's MO. Isn't that one reason AA was pushed out?

I would agree with that not fitting Shapiro's MO at all. This whole "Jays interested in McCutcheon" was pure BS from the PR machine in my opinion. You typically see stuff like that around that time of the year as it takes peoples mind away from what actually is happening in free agency. The Jays didn't have the prospect that it would taken to acquire McCutcheon post Tulo and Price trades. The Jays are always "looking at" some sort of star player at that time of the year. Not once has it ever panned out.


That said, the point remains that if you want a player like McCutcheon you are going to have to empty your prospect pool to do that. Baseball prospects are a dime a dozen though, so really, there isn't nearly the harm in doing it there is in other sports. Also, you can literally turn around and trade that player again the next year and recoup all the assets you just lost in trading him. If the Pirates would have been willing to take what was supposedly offered, I think the Jays should have been all over that. Losing Guerrero would rely hurt, but he's 2-3 years from the show and who is to say he doesn't potentially bust?

[cross16]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That said, the point remains that if you want a player like McCutcheon you are going to have to empty your prospect pool to do that. Baseball prospects are a dime a dozen though, so really, there isn't nearly the harm in doing it there is in other sports. Also, you can literally turn around and trade that player again the next year and recoup all the assets you just lost in trading him. If the Pirates would have been willing to take what was supposedly offered, I think the Jays should have been all over that.

Which is why I think it's very unlikely that was a legitimate offer. You could argue that the Jays could have made that deal and actually gotten better prospects if they flipped next off season. Certainly perhaps more MLB ready prospects and especially if he had a bounce back year (probably likely playing in Rogers center). Why it probably was never close to happening. Pirates would want more and will still likely get more next year when they move him.

I think the problem with all of this is in today's age if a team places a phone call and asks about a player suddenly its a rumor. I have no doubt the Jays asked about McCutcheon and I also have no doubt the conversation was probably short because they couldn't meet the asking price.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

On Tellez, I meant to say "only power".

Pretty good plate discipline as well... although if you more meant that his value is going to be almost entirely dependent on his bat then yes that's accurate. Apparently he's really improved both his fielding and his conditioning but his fielding will always be 1B fielding and his body type will always be of the "thick" variety (so baserunning won't likely ever be better then fringe-average). He either hits and makes it or he doesn't and won't.

If he starts the year hitting then I figure he makes the majors this season. He's a lefthanded hitting 1B... all he has to do is present as a more appealing option then Justin Smoak and that's an eminently achievable bar to clear.